Spiral Knights - Stupid Energy Market

Stupid Energy Market

29 replies [Last post]

Sun, 08/17/2014 - 13:21

Nolidor

Alright so...

...I'm a serious energy market investor with over 40k ce, so please no, "Such a noob" retorts. I also trade elsewhere on the AH and estimate my overall wealth to be around 80k ce. That's a little under 6m cr. My incentive for doing this is to trade energy for games on Steam rather than actually play SK anymore since... well... the game's just boring.

Anyway, over the past week, the energy market boosted from around 6800 to 7300 cr/100 ce. I timed this right by buying into energy, and reselling after the boost to make a tidy 200k cr/2700 ce profit.

What's stupid, however, is that the market's margins are the same as they were before it got boosted.

People, if you're still making 100 cr per 100 ce bought and sold despite how the price for energy went up, you're effectively making less from inflation.

Just get this through your heads please. You're ruining the market for everyone if you refuse to see how it's costing you more to earn less.

Heck, right now, the margin is even worse: http://s30.postimg.org/qbcdzqptd/Stupid_Energy_Market.png

People, if you can't do math, it's easy. There's a 2% fee after selling. Therefore, take the first two digits of the selling price (and round depending on the third). Multiply that by 2. That's how much you lose after selling...

...so right now, the fee is about 74 rounded up *2 = 150 cr lost.

7500 - 150 = 7350
7350 - 7300 = 50
50/7300 = .68%

Really? Are we really competing so hard on the market to make .68% margin while the price is above average?

Talk about a lose-lose situation. It costs players in the game a boatload to get energy, and people with energy are earning hardly any profit.

Wtf?

Sun, 08/17/2014 - 13:46

Nolidor

I mean just to give a hint,

I mean just to give a hint, if you're earning less than the fee you're being charged, then you're effectively working for the system in making Three Rings money while they pay you a wage by the piece.

If you enjoy working for Three Rings for such a crummy wage, then be my guest and continue, but if you have a sense of pride and actually aim to earn a decent profit, then you might want to relax a little in competing so hard on the market.

Personally, I like when prices go up because it means small time investors who were originally free to play can become pay to play players while facilitating other players who pay to play. Other players who pay to play drive the market down temporarily by selling energy for crowns, and those small time investors can buy that energy in the moment while selling it later on. Previous investments automatically earn a profit...

...but the MARGIN HAS TO STAY INTACT for this to work. Otherwise, you just get beat by inflation. Yea, your energy becomes worth more crowns, but with crummy margins, you can't transform your energy back and forth into more crowns to earn more wealth. In other words, you never actually earn more energy, or at least just end up earning more energy very slowly. Yea, you have more crowns, but the price of things on the market goes up too along with the money supply, so you're not making any real profit anymore.

I say this as someone who came from nothing and accumulated all this wealth merely by playing the markets. I have never spent a dime on SK, and never plan on it, but the game has potential for people to create something from nothing and become successful.

Sun, 08/17/2014 - 13:48

Silverdeoxys

I have no idea why the price rose nor why the margin shrunk, considering that there's no limited-time items on the Supply Depot right now. I have >100k in crowns to be turned into energy once the price goes back down.

Sun, 08/17/2014 - 13:54

Bopp

maybe the market is going to equilibrium

It seems that you've been making money off people who know less than you do. Maybe that is ending. Maybe other people are slowly getting as good as you are at buying and selling. Maybe there are too many people competing to make money without generating value.

Sun, 08/17/2014 - 14:13

Nolidor

My guess is the price went up

My guess is the price went up since summer's coming to an end. Therefore, there aren't as many kids asking "Mommy and Daddy" to give them money to spend on the game. They're going back to school. The price crashed at the beginning of the summer as well. I remember there was a point where it was floating around 6000.

Why the margin shrunk is beyond me though. I'm guessing people aren't multiplying to figure out margins, but rather they're just adding to figure out how much they used to get.

Likewise, I'd expect the market to get more intelligent since kids are going back to school, yes, but I figured that would go along with an increase in margins, not a decrease. Smart people know there are better things to do than hypercompete.

Sun, 08/17/2014 - 21:28

Klipik-Forum

Theoretically, isn't the entire energy market based on taking advantage of people who know less than you? I mean, no one's gonna click the trade button if they know they can post a market offer and get what they want for cheaper. But if everyone knew that, no one would ever accept any market offers, right? I've never understood how this actually continues to work.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:20

Holy-Nightmare

I don't trade CE for profit,

I don't trade CE for profit, I just buy it when I need to buy a 3 pack of orbs or sparks for a Torto event, still I too have been watching as the price climbs up, I always thought that the prices spikes during events (where there is crafting and Boxes) and let off during the lulls. Unfortunately I too have watched the prices rise from what used to be 6700-6800 to 7400-7500. I not only attribute this rise to competition in the market but new Prize boxes, and new lockboxes, as well as preparation for the long coming gunner update (some people want it so bad they can probably taste it). In addition we could probably blame REAL WORLD inflation as certain laws and bills are supposed to come into affect, rising prices are something that affects everything. Still even in the days of mist I never remember seeing prices this high.

It is unlikely that people will take any of this to heart but I hope somehow this does help alleviate the matter.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:52

Seiran

Oh, prices were this high before. I do remember pushing around 8k/ce before mist was abolished. It's one of the reasons why people like me were pushed into playing FSC for full completion in the past: needed to make sure each run was profitable when mist ran out.

Before, you could count on events to push energy prices down (back when the prize boxes were included with the energy purchases). I'm fairly sure that prize box gamblers who used to only purchase for the boxes are less likely to purchase energy now --> less incoming energy. In that sense, the more recent promos are now probably less effective at affecting energy prices in any significant way.

Heh, I'm actually pleasantly surprised a bunch of you guys who were into energy trading are actually coming out and talking about it too.

I didn't think there were many people actually playing energy market in comparison to people who were just looking for a quick way to transfer energy/cr, so I figured we were just riding the normal supply/demand trends than playing competitively against each other :3

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 15:00

Nolidor

Honestly, I'd like to create

Honestly, I'd like to create an energy market guild where fellow big time traders can time the market together. The fact that we earn such small margins is crazy. I don't want to remove competition entirely from the market since it's necessary to keep prices fair, but if we could make it so, "You trade on Monday, I trade on Tuesday, and someone else trades on Wednesday," then margins would become stabilized, predictable, and dependable.

To start, it'd be nice to set a price floor of at least the fee we're getting charged to sell. That way, we don't pay Three Rings more than half of the difference. Instead, we're at least getting as much as we pay them rather than effectively working for them.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 15:12

Nolidor

As for general

As for general theory...

...no, profits aren't necessarily about insider information.

Regular profits just come from a difference of interests. Those who profit are long-term minded whereas those who pay profiteers are short-term minded. I want something later, you want something now. I offer you my interpreted difference in time between then and now, and if you agree with my interpretation, you accept it and pay me.

Granted that some of this might come from arbitrage by intuitively analyzing how things are done in the economy and realizing there's an opportunity to take as a shortcut to get things done more efficiently, but that's just part of the equation and there's nothing wrong with that.

The problem with inside information comes when you actually own how things are done in the economy, but you're being lazy with what you own, so you advertise what you own to create a bubble and make a profit off of what's REALLY nothing. This is in contrast against creating something from nothing where you apply yourself to become successful by using your imagination.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 11:17

#10

Lady-Of-War

Well, it looks like the greedy players are at it again.

I expect a 1920s style Wall Street Crash to ensue any time now.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 11:34

#11

Turn-Me-On

Sounds like you want to be

Sounds like you want to be part of a colluding oligopoly in the energy market Nolidon.

To the supreme court!

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 13:06

#12

Klipik-Forum

Because SK has laws.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:42

#13

Nolidor

Again, the rate of profit has

Again, the rate of profit has died, and it's even worse than before:

http://s25.postimg.org/avjzs19gv/SME2.png

7560*.98=7408

7408-7361=47

47/7408=0.63%

I've seen the market seem to spread a couple hundred points and look like it's going to finally go down, but for some random reason, people decided to tighten the margins again while the price is way above average for the past year.

Nobody wins from this. Consumers pay higher than necessary prices, and suppliers earn a pittance. Please relax.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 21:24

#14

Klipik-Forum

But if the price went down, wouldn't it just get driven up again?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 00:07

#15

Nolidor

If I saw quantities into the

If I saw quantities into the thousands on the margin getting regularly traded, then, this would make sense.

That's not happening though. Nobody's competing for economy of scale. All that's happening is people are competing for peanuts. If you want to buy or sell a little energy for your own consumption, then you're better off just buying or selling it immediately while doing something else with your time instead of fussing over the market.

The only reason this should be happening is because people are getting incredibly bored with SK, so they have nothing better to do with their time than watch the market.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 06:01

#16

Bopp

still don't get it

Your earlier comment, that profit is not always tied to inside information, was quite right.

But I still don't get what this thread is about. Is something abnormal happening in this market? Do you have some reason to believe that sellers are artificially lowering their prices, counter to their self-interest? Do you have some reason to believe that buyers are deliberately paying too much, counter to their self-interest?

Another idea: Has the size of the market changed dramatically? I mean, the number of people buying energy with real money, and the number of people relying on resale to get energy? That might affect the market dynamics.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 13:52

#17

Nolidor

Honestly, I don't have a

Honestly, I don't have a clue. As price goes up, you would expect the margin to go up to maintain a constant rate of profit.

Either suppliers are competing too hard despite how demand's gone up, demanders are competing too hard despite how supply's gone up, or a combination of the two. That's why I keep saying that people need to relax. Whether it's this problem or that problem, the solution's the same. Everyone's trying to trade too hard, and everyone's losing.

I mean if supply relaxed despite how demand was too high, then the margin would expand so suppliers would make more per trade.

If demand relaxed despite how supply is too high, then the price would go down so energy would be cheaper.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 13:56

#18

Nolidor

You can't track real life

You can't track real life purchasing either, but like I said before, the summer's coming to an end, so energy purchases are probably down.

I expected energy prices to regularly climb since energy should get used faster than it's coming in, but prices have stopped instead. The other thing is the supply of energy on the market looks a lot higher than the demand for energy. People are constantly dumping hundreds of energy, but the demand for energy is spotty. It goes up by single and double digit quantities.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 13:21

#19

Skold-The-Drac

If I recall

The market doesn't take down your posting unless it's been a really, really long time.
Just set your desired price and show some patience, as since all the kids are going back to school for certain after the first weekend of this sept., prices are set to climb over the course of the next couple months due to spotty energy buying.
Your biggest concern at that point is what profit you desire that you feel will be within a reasonable margin. I'm not saying you should invest to attempt 5% gains, as that would be a fairly long wait (probably right as the halloween event broke out...) but you can do some decent figures w/ that 80kce. If you go to make a guild that plays with the market, I suggest you make sure everyone isn't so bored with the game that they'll attempt to make a crash happen.
7500*1.07=8025. Yeah, about halloween event time for that figure, I'm probably being a bit conservative as the halloween event will make people want more energy to buy their 1337 apocrypha weapons.
Market will go down as people buy boxes and such, blah blah blah. About october 25th will see the bottom if a reduction happens. And then prices will climb again unless you bought halloween wings/aura, in which case, your sell point is about Nov. 1st (unless you got the absolute 1st) (because holding it for a year wastes a bunch of time).
November likely sees a promo/update preparing for winter launch, energy prolly staggers at 7.6kcr/100ce
December brings forth the xmas, energy climbs in price until winter break (December 16th-28th here). Where the price will either stick for a bit, or drop depending on how desirable the promo carp is.
January-March sees a few events, promos for rose regalia (insert color)/Valentines love and Spring promo/update I'm not your babysitter

Wed, 09/10/2014 - 21:31

#20

Nolidor

Energy market's spiked up to

Energy market's spiked up to 8600cr/100ce.

'bout time foos.

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 04:16

#21

Zaffy-Laffy

This is why you don't save your liquid assets in the currency of crowns :P

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 05:22

#22

Bopp

depends on which way it's swinging

This is why you don't save your liquid assets in the currency of crowns :P

You do if you're waiting for the bottom of the energy market. Then you stockpile crowns, so that you can buy energy when the prices are low.

The idea you're expressing is not a general rule. It just depends on which way the market is swinging.

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 06:15

#23

Baron-Von-Blubba

It's been fun watching the

It's been fun watching the market slowly creep creep creep into that realm of chaotic desperation. :D

p.s. Nolidor I sent you an in-game mail

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 09:59

#24

Silverdeoxys

left margin died

im making fun of the lack of buyers by making it go up by 10 cr each time someone tries to go higher than me

huehue it's risen 200 cr so far

I'm just going to stop when there's no profit to be gained anymore. Has it reached that point?

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 11:59

#25

Batabii

Patch Notes - July 30, 2013

- ‘Crystal Energy’ is now simply called ‘Energy’

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 13:23

#26

Thunder-The-Bright

gods ain't gonna help you, son.

half of the people in the game still call it ce for the same reason the same half calls you larry.

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 14:15

#27

Klipik-Forum

<- only goes in one half

No one answered my question from like 2 months ago. Why does anyone ever accept offers if they could post a better one?

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 15:57

#28

Thunder-The-Bright

gods ain't gonna help you, son.

cause someone always wants their cr/ce right now, not later. it's illogical, but what are you gonna do. right now my ce is trying to sell iself at a price of OVER NINE THOUSAND and that's cause I don't need the cr right now.

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 22:42

#29

Klipik-Forum

So the entire CE market is based on people either being ignorant or impatient. Seems like a bad system.

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Stupid Energy Market