Crystal Economics: Pressures up and down.
Mié, 04/27/2011 - 14:48
So, the value of crystal as measured in crowns, has been going up, going down, and is (at the time I write this), oscillating around something like [4025 crowns: 100 crystal]. Naturally, there is argument on the future of that oscillation. Please take that argument, and go to the threads intended for it. Thank you.
What I'd like to do here is try and name off the various upward and downward pressures on that value. Where edits are added, the thinker-upper gets their name appended (in brackets).
An upward pressure is anything that crystal more desirable, takes crystal out of the game, or adds crowns in.
These are factors that make people want to buy more crystal, driving the price upwards. The basic uses of crystal, of course, are fundamentally set up to interact well with upward pressures:
- You can use crystal to ride elevators, and get more play.
- You need crystal to craft items that are larger than your mist tank.
- [Potentially in future] If the auction house allows sales in crystal (which I hope it won't), auction house taxes.
Given those, here are a few upward pressures....
1 - Any notable influx of new non-paying players means more crystal demand, and thus higher crystal costs.
2 - Any existing player who has run out of stuff they want to buy will still want crystal, but not crowns.
3 - Any addition by Three Rings of "New ways to spend crystal" is an upward pressure.
4 - As players get the ability to crawl the lower clockworks in larger numbers, they'll get more crowns.
5 - Selling items to vendors increases crowns in circulation, so that's an upward market pressure, as is anything that encourages people to sell items to vendors, e.g. too many primal sparks and not enough uses for them. (Senshi)
6 - Any time the price on the player market drops below the price vendors pay, that will be an upward pressure on energy prices. (Senshi)
7- For the moment, the sheer aggravation of trying to sell stuff to players is an upward pressure on the energy market - the price difference between the underpaying vendors isn't, to some players, worth the aggravation of dealing with the trade-spam. (So auction houses may then remove an upward pressure on energy prices if they make it easy to sell low level materials.) (Senshi)
* - The belief that the value of crystal will keep increasing can cause oscillation upwards, because it means people will want to 'hold' savings in crystal. Not a pressure in the classical sense, but has an effect. (Senshi)
A downward pressure is anything that makes crowns more desirable, or takes crowns out, or adds crystal in.
These are factors that make people want to get more crowns, driving the price downwards. The basic uses of crowns, again, are set up nicely to work well with downward pressures:
- Buying recipes for alchemy uses up crowns
- Making items uses up crowns
- [Potentially in future] If the auction house allows sales in crowns (which I expect it will), auction house taxes.
Given those, here are a few downward pressures...
1 - Any notable influx of paying players means more crystal around, and more crown demand, and thus lower crystal costs.
2 - Any conversion of a non-paying player to a paying player does the same thing.
3 - Addition by Three Rings of "More ways to spend crowns". If it's a way to spend and keep spending (consumables), and it's good, it's stronger.
4 - The 2% energy tax on selling energy is a downward pressure (Senshi)
5 - Tied in with the last, margin speculation (buying & selling rapidly), is a downward pressure. (Senshi)
* - Belief that crystal will drop in price is can cause oscillation downwards, because you'll want to hold savings in crowns. Again, not a pressure in the classical sense, but has an effect (Senshi)
...
Okay?
Now, we could argue about the relative strengths of these pressures, attempting to predict the future. We've already done that a bunch, pretty haphazardly.
What I'm asking you to do, instead, is rummage over those lists, and tell me what you think is missing. What other pressures do you think exist? Don't worry about how strong they are; just - what are they?
Mié, 04/27/2011 - 15:45
#2
Fair point about the
Fair point about the speculation. It has an effect, but I shouldn't have lumped it in the same way.
I'll add your others into the OP, with attribution.
Edit: Added.
Mié, 04/27/2011 - 15:51
#3
Interesting topic. I've been
Interesting topic. I've been thinking about this too.
Upward pressures (downward when the opposite is true)
The availability of easy zones in the first level under Haven(or a subtown) that produce crowns.
The availability of high crown zones across entire sections of gates.
Upward pressure - game becomes more fun to play because people won't mind spending more of the crowns they get from a run on getting energy to do more runs
Upward pressure - auction house - because it will make it easier to convert ingredients to crowns, and make it easier to collect the ingredients to create UVs. Of course, then you need ME or CE to actually make the items too
Jue, 04/28/2011 - 15:20
#4
On one of OOO's other game,
On one of OOO's other game, Puzzle Pirates, various people developed a large flow chart of how money flows into and out of the game. Actually, your post is very similar to the Puzzle Pirates Economy wiki page.
Some things I can think of that you left off:
* In Moorcroft Manor (and I presume Emberlight), you can buy vitapods and potions for crowns.
* You can buy upgrade trinket/weapon slots for CE.
* Players may learn "non-obvious" things about the game. For example, just yesterday I learned that you could sell materials, trinkets and weapons (even if bound!) to merchants. I had earlier looked for a merchant that would buy this kind of thing, but didn't find one, I had no idea that *all* merchants will buy them. At least in my guild, about 100k crowns was fountained into the game via the "buy hearthstone from Brinks, sell to another vendor" method of converting 5 primal spark tokens into 1200 crowns. Being able to sell bound weapons will likely mean I will trash my current set of 2* weapons and upgrade to a different path of 4* weapons.
Similar to the recent tutorial on selling minerals to gates, OOO could add a new tutorial showing people who to sell their "useless" stuff to vendor. This, I think,would cause a very large increase in crowns flowing into the game.
* creating guilds take something like 500 CE, but guilds have very little functionality now. Any increase in usefulness would have an impact.
* Personally, I suspect the biggest impact is the number of players flowing through the various stages of the game. Brand new players are probably not going to buy CE 'cause they have no idea if the game is any fun. Newish players probably have an above average chance of buying CE 'cause they want to get a quick start. After people have played for a while, they will probably try to earn enough in runs to buy CE. Players who have played a long time, but haven't maxed out, will probably be more likely to buy CE, 'cause the like the game, and have more RL money than time. This is especially true if they are close to breaking into T2 or T3. Players who have maxed out, or are semi-retired are less likely than average buy CE.
* Oh, and the RL economy will have a large impact on whether people feel willing to whip out their credit card to buy CE.
Jue, 04/28/2011 - 17:00
#5
Quick side note on the recent
Quick side note on the recent patch, from my readings on the numbers:
Just after the the recent update, a lot of people to changed crystal for crowns, shifting the exchange to bounce up and down around something like [3960 Crowns: 100 Energy] for a few hours. It has since looked to be returning to it's previous levels of rubbery twang, where it bounces from [3900:100] to [4100:100] and back.
Jue, 04/28/2011 - 20:04
#6
Re, Malyce
The profitability of the current gates is certainly a pressure, up or down depending on whether it's good or bad profitability. However, I'd suggest it's actually hard, profitable areas that provide the most upward pressure. Arenas and graveyards provide high profit, but also kill players off and they may energy-regen. That's a recipe for upward pressure: more demand for energy and more crowns available.
Not sure 'fun' is really an upward pressure. No matter how fun the runs are, if people aren't making enough crowns to buy more energy, they won't be -able- to buy energy (for crowns, anyway) no matter how much fun they are having. If it is an upward pressure, it's a capped one, anyway.
Auction house is a downward pressure, actually. The crowns 'gained' from selling materials to other players are not fountained crowns, they were already in circulation. However, there is almost certainly going to be a 2% tax on auction house transactions just like there is on energy, which is a crown sink, which by definition is a downward pressure.
Selling (hearthstones, bound equipment, etc.) to vendors is an upward pressure because that's a crown fountain. Even when it's shards at 1 crown each, it's a small upward pressure.
Jue, 04/28/2011 - 20:14
#7
Auction house brings in a
Auction house brings in a whole bundle of pressures, I think....
First, the velocity of crowns will increase (a given 'bit' of virtual money will go round and round faster). Each time it does, tax! Which is a downward pressure, yep.
Second, it'll put money in the hands of a lot more players, who will use it to buy items from vendors (crowns sink again, downward pressure).
Third, many of those with new money will be able to buy crystal more easily (upward pressure; it empowers non-paying players), but the successful vendors won't be able to buy much as now, necessarily (which may mitigates it).
Fourth, lots more UV-hunting crafts will occur (pressure on both sides).
...I'm sure there are more. It's not a one-stroke addition, at all.
Vie, 04/29/2011 - 05:56
#8
@leviathan
Your ideas of the auction house being a downward pressure are debatable. In my opinion, it will be an upward pressure as a whole. The 2% crown tax is negligible when you factor in that it will be much faster for people to sell their wares -- unlike the slow pace of the trade/general channels or worse, hoarding the items in fear of needing them (or in my case, getting the wrong price for them). When people are able to get the right price for their things, and fast, they will have more crowns to play with. Those looking to buy equips/items are already taken out of the equation because their demand is not focused on CE, so their crowns don't count toward the downward pressure, while those trying to sell have a focus on demanding the crowns, so causing upward pressure.
Another thought is that people will be able to use CE to create items (with or without UV) and sell on the auction house for crowns, hopefully making more profit than the crowns-to-CE conversion. This big cycle creates a circular pressure which ultimately is also going up -- the only time it would cycle down is when the speculation on the conversion was wrong and the seller ends up on the losing side of the straw. The current system has people crafting the items and selling it through the trade channel...and we all know how fun that is. The AH will make it easier to supply the world with items that would normally take forever to find, reducing the price of that item and ultimately allowing the buyer to keep more of his crowns...which he uses on what?
exactly.
Vie, 04/29/2011 - 06:32
#9
This reminds me...
This reminds me of a comedy bit my grandparents used to listen to (on vinyl phonograph record even).
There's these two guys, Al and Bob. Al has a horse, and Bob buys it from him for a dollar. A few weeks later, Bob sells the horse back to Al for two dollars. A few more weeks later, Al sells the horse to Bob again for three dollars. A few weeks later, Al comes buy to see about buying the horse from Bob for four dollars, but Bob says he sold to a guy from out of town for ten dollars. Al says, "What'd ya do that for, we had a great racket going!"
Ahem. Okay, it's only funny when delivered right and spun out a bit longer, but that's the idea. The point is, just like Al and Bob selling the horse back and forth to each other, there's no profit for the -group- of Al and Bob. In the same way, players selling to each other does not profit -players as a whole-. For every player that can now more easily afford to buy CE, another one is now less able to afford it. Crowns only increase -average- wealth when they are fountained, not when they are passed from player to player.
Vie, 04/29/2011 - 10:55
#10
"The 2% crown tax is
"The 2% crown tax is negligible when you factor in that it will be much faster for people to sell their wares -- unlike the slow pace of the trade/general channels or worse, hoarding the items in fear of needing them (or in my case, getting the wrong price for them)."
I believe that the only way we can avoid argument in the thread is to avoid discussing the relative strengths of these various pressures, until we have real evidence from action by the market.
So, as a favor to me, please try to keep this as minimal as possible. I'm not saying you're wrong - I don't know! - I'm saying, let's put it to the side for now.
Lun, 05/02/2011 - 09:00
#11
I'm not an economist and I've
I'm not an economist and I've never taken a single class in economics, but here are some of my thoughts.
Basically in SK you have two currencies, crowns and CE. Leaving aside the issue of player to player trades, SK gives us a highly synthetic system of exchanges that are possible with the two currencies.
CE:
With the single exception of player to player trades, all CE exchanges/interactions are sinks (i.e. CE is permanently consumed), as CE is the currency intended to have scarcity and value. Unlike a real currency, it isn't mined or printed, so the only way to make more of it is by player investment of hard currency, and eventually, if the players stop buying the CE will all run out. At this point we will be able to keep playing the game on mist energy but with no access to anything with an energy cost > 100. (As a corollary to this, only items with energy cost of > 100 have real world value, including 5* gear, guilds and slot unlocks.) Let's look at a list of CE sinks for consideration:
- Level lifts (10 CE/use, 5 at rescue camp)
- Energy gates (3 CE/use)
- Robo knights (5? CE/use)
- Trinket/weapon slot upgrades (150 CE/each)
- Guild formation (500 CE)
- Alchemy (10-300 CE)
Energy gates are almost certainly a waste unless you have a party of four in which case the crown payout may potentially be greater than the cost in CE at going rates, but never to any one player.
Trinket/Slot upgrades may be possible to break even on since they allow you to gamble on harder danger rooms but you would have to grind them consistently for the 30 day time period to recoup your costs.
The major factor I see affecting the day to day price of CE is limited time promotions like the Rose Regalia they're running now, which encourage players to buy more. The market price of CE (in crowns) has plunged nearly 4% and is still falling.
Crowns:
Since unlike CE they can be generated by player interaction, but not by direct purchase with hard currency, their relative value is much more difficult to assess. Let's look at a list of sources and sinks of crowns:
Sources
-Playing the dungeon (~100-800+?/level)
-Selling materials or items to vendors
-Selling tokens to vendors, by first converting to materials
Sinks
-Vendor purchases (100-75000/ea)
-Uplink messages (max ~100ish? with attachments)
-Energy market trades (at 2%)
-Alchemy (200-5000/ea)
-Skipping directly to lower depth dungeons (200/T2, ???/T3)
One interesting thing to note is that while crowns are constantly generated through regular play, there is no way to directly convert CE into crowns. The most efficient way (by forum consensus) to generate crowns from CE is to play the tier 2 depths and hit graveyard levels, arenas, the jelly king castle, and as many danger rooms as you can handle. Danger rooms and arenas are the only element that appear to incorporate player skill into the CE value equation, as they allow skilled players to get more crowns back from their CE layout. At the going crown to energy ratio of ~40:1, you break even on the energy cost of a level when you collect 400 crowns in it. This currently happens below around Depth 12. However, playing the levels on mist energy is effectively free.
The second way of generating crowns ex nihilo using CE is to do alchemy and sell the results to vendors, but this is horribly inefficient (per design) and invariably results in a net loss for the player. An example exchange is the Haze Bomb. The alchemy cost is 200 crowns, 10 CE and ~250-300 crowns worth of materials at market prices. The equivalent value of the resulting item is ~900 crowns, and you can sell it to a vendor for 300 crowns, which is technically more crowns than you put in.
Another point to note is that the most egregious sinks, the vendor purchases, are entirely avoidable if players cooperate. A player can theoretically avoid buying a single recipe or item from a vendor and still obtain all the 5* gear in the game by having friends do the crafting. This would result in the value of crowns decreasing rapidly as the currency inflated unchecked. Unless there is some hidden algorithm that modifies the payout of dungeon levels based on the number of crowns in circulation, I don't see any safety mechanism to prevent crown inflation other than a rather cynical assumption of player stupidity and lack of coordination.
Furthermore, the prices for the other crown sinks seem completely arbitrary and make me wonder if the developers put any thought into the economy at all.
In summary, the interaction between the three currencies (crowns, CE and real) is complex but ultimately arbitrary. The price of CE is fixed with regard to real money, but variable respecting crowns. The factors affecting the price of CE are the money supply of crowns (I would not invest in crowns for reasons listed above!) and player interest in the game. As the game becomes more popular, players will buy more CE lowering its price, with short term fluctuations according to promotions, etc run by the developers. The crown price of CE will ultimately trend upward due to two factors, the inflationary nature of crowns and the fact that CE is consumed in every meaningful game transaction.
Based on all the above, my long term perspective would be this. Play as much as you can in Tier 2 on mist energy only. Hoard CE as it's the only thing with real value. Smash all the bushes and trees for maximum return on dungeons, and play the market while you adventure. Any trade you make better than 2% on is profit for you (at the expense of the overall money supply however). Make a couple purchases with real money to shake up the market and keep things fun. Craft as many items as you can for people and keep the UVs as they will be desirable for collectible value later, especially so if an auction house is developed.
Lun, 05/02/2011 - 09:17
#12
Re: Energy Gates
Energy gates for treasure boxes may rarely be worthwhile, but ones for danger rooms are well worth the 3 CE for a solo player as long as that player doesn't need to revive to defeat the room. The payout in crowns alone will generally be worth more than 3 energy (even one revive doesn't generally cancel out profits) and the non-monetary bonuses of heat, materials, and extra fun make danger rooms energy well spent when you can win.
Lun, 05/02/2011 - 11:02
#13
Methanol;
See this bolded
Methanol;
See this bolded bit?
"Furthermore, the prices for the other crown sinks seem completely arbitrary and make me wonder if the developers put any thought into the economy at all."
That's where I stopped taking you seriously.
Lun, 05/02/2011 - 12:07
#14
yep
Leviathan > "So, as a favor to me, please try to keep this as minimal as possible. I'm not saying you're wrong - I don't know! - I'm saying, let's put it to the side for now."
My apologies, I meant no offense.
Leviathan > "That's where I stopped taking you seriously."
I stopped at "I'm not an economist." Honestly methanol, you act as if CE is the only payment, and only once mention about ME for "free." By the time I have thoroughly cleansed a level, I have already built up 1 ME, so the cost of the elevator is effectively 9 (I like to destroy all the blocks). Although at some points you are right, here is the total breakdown of how economics works in this game:
- If people purchase CE from 3R, this causes a supply, which will reduce the price of CE on the market. We can argue that people buy CE for their own personal use (hoarding), but the more CE that is purchased, the lower the crown price goes, statistically speaking. When the regalia set was advertised, more CE was purchased, and the price dropped by nearly 1k.
- The more game mechanics/areas that are introduced that require energy, the more demand, which will increase the price. When/if 3R decides to add a new boss at a lower depth (like end of T2 or end of T3, away from the starting point), the demand of CE will increase dramatically. People are able to fight the JK almost nonstop (I think it rotates in as it is leaving, so it's always available), but when vanaduke gets rotated in, I'm sure the price increases slightly.
We can debate nonstop about crowns having an impact on the market, but crowns only set a grade, nothing more. A full run through T1 on average yields about 3k, and T2 is about 5k...assuming T3 is higher, but accounting for revivals and other costs, it makes sense that the market grades around 4k. If the levels were to average higher, than the grade would be higher, but the market up/down from the grade is really only determined by supply/demand of CE (supplied by buyers, demanded by try-ers, die-ers, and also the poor who can't afford to buy).
Lun, 05/02/2011 - 12:32
#15
LOL well, I stopped taking
LOL well, I stopped taking you seriously at "So", so there.
Lun, 05/02/2011 - 12:38
#16
"A full run through T1 on
"A full run through T1 on average yields about 3k, and T2 is about 5k...assuming T3 is higher, but accounting for revivals and other costs, it makes sense that the market grades around 4k. If the levels were to average higher, than the grade would be higher, but the market up/down from the grade is really only determined by supply/demand of CE (supplied by buyers, demanded by try-ers, die-ers, and also the poor who can't afford to buy)."
It might be useful to treat player types as "pressure groups"
For example, starting with the type I think you're sort-of pointing to:
-People trying to play-buy-keep-playing: They buy crystal up to their ability to earn crowns, meaning they push upwards towards the crown output of their own tier (including or not including materials sales, as suits). However, they stop pushing after that point - they can't afford to buy more play by running.
-Cash players: Who are, obviously, pushing things downwards.
-Casual hoarders, using mist only: Again, obviously, pushing things upward.
-And so on...
Lun, 05/02/2011 - 13:31
#17
uhhk
methanol > "LOL well, I stopped taking you seriously at "So", so there."
Brilliant straw-man.
leviathan > "It might be useful to treat player types as "pressure groups""
That's perfect actually. But then you get into time-constraints as well. The play-buy-keep-playing group is limited to the times they are able to play (even after X hours straight, they will have to sleep). Prime times would be an example of this system "gone wild" and would account for the prices increasing at those times (possibly nights and weekends?). So their pressure is more cyclical rather than instant like the other groups (cash players don't have a given time they pay or put their CE on market, but once they do, it is instant supply).
I would say there is at least 2 more groups, the De Beers group (methodology based on the diamond company that bought up all the kimberlight regions to slow-supply the market in order to keep the price high), and the arbiters (in order to try and stabilize the economy by stiffening the up/down motions). The first group, I'd imagine, is an upward pressure, and the second is a counter pressure (whichever way the market faces, they tend to press the other way).
Lun, 05/02/2011 - 13:50
#18
On the point of time-of
On the point of time-of day:
Just tried something fun. Market was hovering near [3940:100]. So, I plunked up 100 offers to buy at 3900.... and 100 offers to sell at 3980, the difference thus being tax; no room for high-speed speculation (apologies if I squeezed anyone there).
I cycled them around for a bit; if something sold, I used the money to buy. When I got more, I put it up for sale. I tried opening up a one-point margin, as well, to see if anyone would just pile right onto my stacks (they didn't). I held it, total, both ways, for about an hour.
Right this instant, at the time I write this, the market pressure is upward, but it's very, very weak; could change easily. So I let go of my top end.
...
I'll be checking it again (though probably not with such big stacks) later on.
Mar, 05/03/2011 - 03:17
#19
@leviathan
This regalia set thing is causing a huge fluctuation in the market....at one point I had placed 30 buys at 3900 and 30 sells at 4099 (a 117 crown profit per partner), all 60 orders went through within 12 hours. That's a 200 point shake, and I don't even know exactly how long it took, but even 12 hours is quite quick. I also saw the market plummet to about 3810, so I jumped on the bandwagon for 40 buys at 3820....instantly (and without me getting even 1 order) it rose steadily to the 3970 mark before crashing to 3940. The sell side stayed within the 3990-4050 range.
At this point I'm about to just give up being an arbiter and take this puppy for a ride, stiffening doesn't seem to be doing much of anything.
Mar, 05/03/2011 - 04:11
#20
More downward pressures
Anything that changes the crowns earned by Energy spent ratio will affect the prize of CEs in crowns. If you earn more crowns per point of energy spent the prize of CE is going to rise.
One obvious way this can happen is reduced elevator costs, as happend during Power surge weekend in the preview, which caused CE prizes to tank.
A more subtle way in which this can happen is the opening of a very lucrative gate. (As an extreme example, imagine a tier of just arena's.) Obviously, such a gate closing has the opposite effect.
Mar, 05/03/2011 - 09:22
#21
"Power surge weekend in the
"Power surge weekend in the preview, which caused CE prizes to tank."
Oh, hello! Can anyone else confirm this?
Because, with this, we can say pretty much for certain that the play-buy-repeat cycle, and those doing it, are one of the most potent market drivers. It gives us a good relative strength, where up till now the only one we could be really certain of is that promotional offers on CE (rose regalia) can really work.
Mar, 05/03/2011 - 15:17
#22
One thing your missing (I
One thing your missing (I think) Is that every time something is crafted, that is an upward pressure on ce prices, due to the fact that the CE cost is much more then the crown cost at the alchemy machine. *This fact is skewed slightly by the use of mist energy in crafting- but I think its safe to assume the vast majority of crafting energy is done with ce.
Coupled with the fact that every depth clear removes ce from the game, and introduces more crowns, I would expect that TIME itself is an upward pressure, as these activities are constant, and ongoing.
*Again mist energy plays a part, but a mist run still introduces crowns- and is ce neutral
Right now, ce prices are being held in place by other forces, but for how long...
Mar, 05/03/2011 - 15:49
#23
One can easily assume that a
One can easily assume that a power surge weekend is a potent downward pressure, because it acts directly on one of the game's core upward pressures, elevator cost.
Pure speculation from this point on.
The current implementation of guild creation, weapon slots and trinket slots is based on energy. I assume that "guild perks", a frequent request, would also be priced in energy (guild perks being a guild bank or other guild hall additions). Naturally, these energy sinks would be powerful upward pressures.
The future possibility of even deeper and harder tiers (the core) would also create new energy sinks due to difficulty-induced re-ups, and are also likely to provide more crowns. If these theoretical tiers feature bigger and better gear (more than one stat bar?) the pressures may equalize.
Rose Regalia will not be the last premium item. Profit is seldom as visible as it is right now. This downward pressure will likely accompany a strong upward pressure, such as new item recipes. Oh looky, item recipes were released just before the Rose Regalia. In closing, I'm glad my free time is in the hands of a thoughtful dev team.
Mar, 05/03/2011 - 16:32
#24
"At this point I'm about to
"At this point I'm about to just give up being an arbiter and take this puppy for a ride, stiffening doesn't seem to be doing much of anything."
Heh. I put up some spots of my own, as well as arbitrating, etc, etc.... But...
The more I play at the market, and especially with the rose regalia moves (and now, hearing about the power weekend)... The more I've started to think, look, the market is highly responsive. It treats attempts to stabilize it as no more valid than attempts to mess up that responsiveness for gain. So we might as well work to fill our pockets, and leave it at that.
Not the most community-spirited approach, maybe, but hey.
Speculation based on belief is not a real market pressure, it is a driver for wider market oscillations around the same average from the real market pressures. This is why in the real markets, prices will often rise on expected bad news or fall on expected good news when the naive would expect the opposite - the belief that the news would go that way has already driven the price up, sometimes beyond what is warranted. That belief is not an -additional- pressure to the real factor, but merely causes the market to move before the news actually happens. So I would not call 'belief that the market will rise' a pressure on the market.
The 2% tax on selling energy is a downward pressure on the market, and market profiteering (margin speculation), of course, increases that downward pressure as more crowns are taken out of circulation when someone makes themselves a middle man and causes many more trades to take place to get the energy from original seller to final buyer than would otherwise happen.
Edit: Addition
Selling items to vendors increases crowns in circulation, so that's an upward market pressure, as is anything that encourages people to sell items to vendors, e.g. too many primal sparks and not enough uses for them. Any time the price on the player market drops below the price vendors pay, that will be an upward pressure on energy prices. For the moment, the sheer aggravation of trying to sell stuff to players is an upward price on the energy market - the price difference between the underpaying vendors isn't, to some players, worth the aggravation of dealing with the trade-spam. (So auction houses may then remove an upward pressure on energy prices if they make it easy to sell low level materials.)
Edit: Thanks :)