Can anyone tell me the percentages for the chance of statuses? Strong, slight, fair, etc?
Chance %s
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 14:06
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 21:23
#2
sloppy answer
The chances are Slight, Fair, Good. I'll say good is above 50% (brandish charge), slight is around 10% or a bit more (flourish status), and fair is around 40% (fov charge). A weapon could have different chances, example final swing vs charge on gran faust, flourish status and hopefully sudaruska. I remained unsure if chances is reduced by status effective resistance on armors.
The effectiveness are minor, (nothing), and strong. On fire status effect, when minor damage is like 60 ish, strong is like 90 ish. Strong curse will curse all 4 weapons. The duration also vary based on this, I am guessing. The effectiveness could be reduced by status effect resistance.
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 16:15
#3
You'll also have to consider if your enemy has resistenace to it, at least on LD.
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 16:27
#4
...
in that case, you may have immunity on minor effectiveness only. (one max uv + one high uv at least)
I tried vog set + two 5* fire trinket with fair chance (vog charge), still get caught in fire.
After certain status effect resistance (vog armor set vs fire for example), the effectiveness reduced only by tiny bit difference when you add another resistance. Like vog set only 4 bars of damage, vog set + fire trinkets 4.5 bars of damage.
Just assume "vaporizer" bomb line does continuous pulses/non-damage attacks that always try to apply the status effect.
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 18:25
#5
From too many hours of gameplay and a little bit of math...
Okay, so let's look at something like DVS, last summer I did a 40x trial of the DVS and how long it took to achieve 1 successful poison. Average number of swings - ~39, Standard Deviation was ~3.2, then we look at a distribution which operates in with those parameters - Negative Binomial distribution. To estimate the FAILURE (chance we don't cause poison - if you look at the wikipedia page it refers to these as successes and the status infliction is the failure, I reversed the nomenclature for players to better grasp the concept.) rate we look at the (average number of swings)/(1+average number of swings). We get 97.5% Thus our chance to inflict is around 2.5% for the DVS, we can account for our standard deviation, but that leaves the chance between ~2 and 3%, which doesn't affect much.
To find the accumulated probability is starting to get esoteric, but if you understand the wikipedia page on Negative Binomial Distributions, then you should be able to grasp it. I did the math, largely because I was curious.
Anyway other estimates I got:
- Glacius/Voltedge affliction ~40% per explosion - accumulating with ~95% chance/fully connecting charge attack
- Combuster ignition ~40% per explosion - accumulating with with 95% chance/fully connecting charge attack, ~84% chance of 2 ignitions (reignition) (3 - 68%, 4 - 52%, 5 - 37%; At this point the monsters are moving so fast they probably aren't going to be in the blast area.)
- FoV ~20%/swipe, 40%/hit of charge attack, 92%/charge (accumulated), 77%/charge(accumulated multiple reignitions) ~33% change of self-infliction
- Gran Faust ~20% on the second hit, ~20%/tick of the charge attack, 67% accumulated chance of curse, ~25% self-infliction
- Haze bombs - unless you're immune or you miss one of the status "ticks" consider it to be 100%
- DVS ~2.5%/swing, regardless of high or low swing, normal or charged, ~25%/charge(accumulated)
- Plague Needle ~2.5%/bullet, ~16.8%/trigger pull, ~36%/charge(accumulated)
If anyone wants to update them, they can, but remember you need to run these a whole lot of times, doing it 10 times isn't good enough.
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 18:38
#6
My research indicates about 15% per rank. Slight is 15%. Fair is 30%. Good is 45%.
I only did about 100 attacks per rank, making the results kind of accurate, so my actual results were 14%, 32% and 40%, so it's more of guesstimation.
It would also seem like the chance of refreezing something is higher than just freezing it to begin with.
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 19:55
#7
I mean, for reference
I mean, for reference repeating the experiment 40 times for DVS and getting an average of 39 hits to 1 poison infliction is 1560 attacks, but I do have notoriously bad luck.
It's good to see that you're around 40-45% for "Good" chance, that does validate the testing I've been doing for a while.
I would resist the temptation to test by rank, because weapons have different properties depending on how you test them, and other than brandishes there isn't necessarily matching statuses, for example: FoV swing vs. charge and FoV fire vs Combuster fire.
Side note: shock and freeze are weird statuses. Shock has the chance of reshocking because not every infliction locks the target in place, I would estimate that reshocking would be similar to a combuster, but would be on the lower side, maybe 68% chance of double shock. Not that it matters in the first place, since once someone gets staggered by it, they're probably going to be skewered by a pack of skolver clones.
Freeze is crazy weird. You're likely to freeze someone once (like after 2 explosions there is 78% the target is frozen), then there is an off-chance that they unfreeze because of the following explosion (depends mostly on ping and how you hit your target), then another chance they refreeze from the following explosion (maybe 40%). I'm not likely to use Glacius in LD anyway, because it's ineffectiveness to skolvers. I would rather use a cryotech. Speaking of discrepancies in statuses, as a skolver I can walk through shivermist, but I get frozen by croytech.
It seems like there needs to be a spreadsheet that documents attacks until infliction, then using some calculations we derive the chance. The numbers can then be posted to the wiki for each weapon.
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 20:12
#8
...
Freeze from Glacius at LD is more reliable because of invisible time, don't you think?
I've been using glacius for a while at LD, the freeze chance seems fine to me.
The initial charge swing and the explosions have some delay and different location that also helps clean freeze without breaking it.
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 20:51
#9
I've never had a clean freeze
I've never had a clean freeze in lockdown, I abhor my connection and my glacius. Although you are absolutely right, there shouldn't be a unfreeze step in LD.
Edit: Sorry about hijacking the thread, I didn't want it to become a "Which Brandish line is the best" thread. I just wanted to mention the process we would use to determine the chances for infliction for each weapon. It's a serious gap we are missing in the wiki, and I think with the right tools we can give players the knowledge they need to play better.
Thu, 04/11/2013 - 23:10
#10
I'm fairly convinced that there are only three categories of status infliction chance, just like there are only three categories of status infliction strength. Not all attacks on a weapon have the same infliction chance or strength, however. The tooltip simply states the strongest one, which is whatever the charge attack does.
Fri, 04/12/2013 - 03:06
#11
The papaya giggles
How I see the %s :P
Slight-Never happens (unless its a mist bomb :P)
Fair- (Not much better than "slight")
Good-50/50 chance
Strong-99%
I highly suggest that you don't follow my way of looking at the %s :P
Fri, 04/12/2013 - 08:12
#12
It could very well be that
It could very well be that there are 3 different status chance levels, however, I'm still convinced that Slight is extremely low, around 2.5%/hit, however, that's largely through anecdotal evidence. I've interviewed several operators of Plague needles and they say about 10% chance that a normal volley of rounds will leave a monster poisoned, and 33% chance of Vanaderp being poisoned after a charge attack - which is congruous with a 2.5%/shot.
My friend and fellow GM, Lycheesoup, has a Rigadoon that's he has used for a while in lockdown. He typically gets only 1 or 2 stuns per game, and he's fairly aggressive when he plays. For that matter, I've gone toe to toe with several rigadoons, (thankfully wielded by vog cubs) and I've only been stunned once in game. I will be honest, I was surprised when it happened, because at that point I figured it was never going to happen.
While the exception of being hit by Triglav charges, I've never been frozen.
If I was to estimate the chance outcomes they would look something like this:
Slight 2.5-5%
Fair - 10-20%
Good 40%
I'm not convinced that there are only three different status levels, because there is a significant difference between Combuster and FoV fire.
We're working on it. :3