>Someone please explain my bad luck.
Your bad luck was needed to make science!

With these numbers we can get an approximation of rarity of uvs.

>No one said science was inexpensive or easy.

I think we should just put all of this behind us. For science. You monster.

All we need to take away from this is that UV's are hard to get and he spent over 10,000ce. The crazy galoot.

@roflmao35
A very handsome lab rat! Albeit an unlucky one.

@GodofSkype1
They aren't hard to get, it's apparently a 1 in 10 chance. This does not mean, however, that you have to craft 10 to get 1. You could craft 10 items and get 10 UVs, although it seems unlikely. I doubt they've programmed in something that prevents you from getting a ratio that high.
Anyway, it's probability, not algebra. There's not a set number you _will_ get, just what you _might_ get.

Call if fate, if you believe in God. Call it luck if you don't.

this weekend I made 3 weps, got 3 UVs on em, 1 High, 2 Lows (1 Faust, 2 Flourishes)

what's the chance for my luck? :O

UVs don't appear at equal rates.. for instance someone made UV Increased Attack Speed bomb. I made like 100+ brandishes and never made a single CTR UV, not to mention the people crafting caliburs always seem to say that CTR is nearly nonexistant.

Rare UVs are not balanced around a single player being able to craft them. Rare UVs are balanced around the game population being able to craft them. Otherwise they would be common. I recommend buying the exact UVs that you desire, and crafting with mist energy for chance happenings that will fund your purchases.

this weekend I made 3 weps, got 3 UVs on em, 1 High, 2 Lows (1 Faust, 2 Flourishes)

what's the chance for my luck? :O

Assuming you have a 1/10 chance of crafting a UV, you had a 1/1000 chance of crafting 3 UVs in 3 chances. Assuming that there's only a 13% chance of getting at least a "High" UV, your chance of getting at least one high UV out of three was almost exactly 1/3. So yes, you hit a 1/3000 event. Congratulations! It's too low a sample size to prove that it's anything more than luck, but I imagine you're okay with that!

.

Total you got 71 Low, 23 Medium, 8 High, and 6 Very High. So since you provided such a nice test sample it looks like the UV level percent chance for weapons is thus:

Low: 66.03%
Medium: 21.39%
High: 7.44%
Very High: 5.58%

This is +/- up to 1%.

Be careful how you use +/-! In probability, +/- doesn't mean "I rounded off some digits". It's closer to meaning, "I can't know for a fact what the true probability is, but given my sample size and the degree of variance observed, there's a 95% chance it falls within this range." For example, if roflmao35 had gotten 710 Low results out of 1,080 UVs, you could be far more confident that the likelihood of getting a Low UV was 66%. The larger the sample size, the less effect variance has compared to the true probability.

From data we have, we can be 95% sure the chances of crafting a particular level of UV, assuming the chances are equal regardless of UV type, are:
Low: 65.74% (+/- 8.95%)
Medium: 21.30% (+/- 7.72%)
High: 7.41% (+/- 4.94%)
Very High: 5.56% (+/- 4.32%)

Or, perhaps more simply:
Low: 56.79% to 74.69%
Medium: 13.58% to 29.02%
High: 2.47% to 12.35%
Very High: 1.24% to 9.88%

I'm sorry I can't explain further -- it's been half a decade since my last proper statistics course, so I don't remember how the formula is derived, only how to plug numbers into it. If you want to learn more, here's a Wikipedia page to get you started: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence_interval

Umm... most 4* and 5* items can't be bought. You still have some crafting ahead of you.