[SKBS] PSA: The UV chart
Mar, 03/25/2014 - 23:10
Ever wondered what the chances of getting a particular uv were? or how much it would cost to get it by punching? Well, Here you are!
These prices are based on rolling 1 particular uv on the associated gear. Ex: On Swords and Handguns, The price of Rolling Ctr Vh is the same as Rolling Asi Vh : 4,320,000cr
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General
Rank..........Fractional....Percentage
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Low.................2/ 3........66.66%
Medium..............2/ 9........22.22%
High................2/27.........7.41%
V. High/Maximum!....1/27.........3.70%
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For Swords and handguns:
Rank........|Cost to Roll
------------+------------
Low.........|.....160,000
Medium......|.....480,000
High........|...1,944,000
V. High.....|...4,320,000
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For Bombs:
Rank........|Cost to Roll
------------+------------
Low.........|.....140,000
Medium......|.....420,000
High........|...1,126,000
V. High.....|...3,780,000
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For Armor and Helmets:
Rank........|Cost to Roll
------------+------------
Low.........|.....200,000
Medium......|.....600,000
High........|...1,800,000
Maximum!....|...5,400,000
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For Shields:
Rank........|Cost to Roll
------------+------------
Low.........|......80,000
Medium......|.....240,000
High........|.....720,000
Maximum!....|...2,160,000
The disclaimer:
These are the expected, average, amount of cr you can expect to spend. just like flipping a coin has equal chances of heads or tails, you can still end up with heads 3 times in a row.
If you like these charts, or have any questions leave some feedback below.
Mié, 03/26/2014 - 06:36
#2
hehe
Yup yup, but I've known players who've rolled several times, never getting higher than medium.
its interesting that you say its all luck, when thats exactly what probability is. if you know the numbers you can predict the overall outcome.
As stated before, when flipping a coin you have a 50% chance of flipping heads. it doesn't mean you will or won't flip heads, but it can give you an idea of the long run.
Another way to think of it is with uvs you have a deck of 27 cards. 1 of the cards says "very high", 2 of the cards say "high" 6 say "medium" and 18 say "low". probability states that you have a 1 out of 27 chance of getting the card that says very high. you can extrapolate from there.
When you roll a uv it is nothing more than drawing from 2 decks. the first for the type, the second for the rank.
When it comes to lock boxes I can definitely agree that there does seem to be a trend that after unlocking one, it seems like you can't get anything else out of the roullete. maybe I'll tackle that probability later ^_^.
Mié, 03/26/2014 - 10:12
#3
I'd like to know how you came
I'd like to know how you came up with those values as the wiki page yields different results on the matter.
Wrong sub-forum btw XD
Mié, 03/26/2014 - 21:37
#4
Elementary my dear watson!
The primary results from the wiki
Low: 65.74% ± 8.95%
Medium: 21.30% ± 7.72%
High: 7.41% ± 4.94%
Very High: 5.56% ± 4.32%
My Results
Low: 66.66%
Medium: 22.22%
High: 7.41%
Very High: 3.70%
As you should be able to see, my results fall well within the bounds of the wiki results. They also have an elegant numeric where each level is 1/3 as likely as the previous level. With the exception of V.h which is 1/2 as likely as High as the result of balancing
low = 2/3
medium = 2/9 = 1/3 * 2/3 = 1/3 * Low = 1/3 as likely as low.
High = 2/27 = 1/3 * 2/9 = 1/3 * medium = 1/3 as likely as medium.
V.High = 1/27 = 1/2 * 2/27 = 1/2 * High = 1/2 as likely as High.
Interestingly enough if you look at the probability of recieve a uv of at least a certain level, the elegance further continues:
At least V. High = 1/27
At least High = At least V.High + 2/27 = 1/27 + 2/27 = 3/27 = 1/9
At least Medium = At least High + 2/9 = 1/9 + 2/9 = 3/9 = 1/3
At least Low = At least Medium + 2/3 = 1/3 + 2/3 = 3/3 = 1
As you can see in this scenario there again is the presence of division by 3.
This elegance, as well as the results of the wiki lead me to believe that this is indeed the solid results of the overall probability of rolling UVs.
Also, and I will state this again for those folks who roll up and say "oh yeah? well I rolled Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious on my first go, how do you explain that?"
Simple. for every person who rolls such on their first go, there is ( in the case of v. High on the first go ), 26 other people who did NOT roll such. (to be specific 18 rolled low, 6 who rolled medium, and 2 who rolled high )
To address the wrong board: As this is a PSA regarding pricing, and thus similar to other price check posts in the baazar, I believe this board is right where it belongs.
Mié, 03/26/2014 - 21:34
#5
So I would need to roll 27
So I would need to roll 27 times to get a chance at a vh uv?
Mié, 03/26/2014 - 21:43
#6
yes an no
If you wanted to save up enough cr to have the highest likely hood of punching a very high uv( thats any Very High mind you, not specificaly ctr, or asi )
you would want to save up enough for 27 rolls.
the logic goes as such:
if the probability of rolling a very high is 1/27 that is 1 out of 27 rolls will be a very high, then goes to reason that you can roll 27 times and expect to get very high at least once.
Whether it is the first the second 10th or last is irrelevant.
A friend of mine rolled V.high on his first go.
Few more of my friends rolled V.high in under 5 rolls. It's all luck.
There is a conspiracy going around that those who pay real money have a better chance of getting better UVs. Like those who open more Lockboxes get a higher chance of one appearing in the prize wheels. This may be partially true as in 50 fsc runs I haven't got a single Lockbox. But when I opened a Lockbox in the same day in 3 fsc runs I got lockboxes.