Roughly How many do I have to try for a UV from Punch to get a ASI med or above on my Gran Faust?
Getting ASI for a Gran Faust
Sat, 03/16/2013 - 08:11
Sat, 03/16/2013 - 09:08
#2
Lesson in Probability
Sum the odds of getting a Medium, High or Very High UV, divide by eight. This is the odds of getting a med+ ASI UV on any given roll.
Take that number, subtract it from one. This is your odds of NOT getting a med+ ASI UV on any given roll; raise this to the power of N, and you will get the odds of NOT getting a med+ ASI UV after N rolls. To get the odds of rolling a med+ ASI UV after N rolls, just subtract this number from one.
If you want to calculate how many rolls it takes to get a med+ ASI UV with some percent probability, then you will want this formula:
N = ln(1 - P_desired) / ln(P_failure)
where P_desired is your target probability, P_failure is the odds of NOT getting the desired UV on any given roll, and ln is the natural log.
For example, if the odds of rolling a VH UV are 1/100 (I forget what the actual odds are), and there are 8 possible weapon UVs, your odds of rolling a VH ASI are 1/800 for any single roll. The odds of not getting that UV are 1 - 1/800, or 99.875%. So if you roll 100 times, 0.99875 ^ 100 is 88.2%; flip that around, which means after 100 rolls, you have a 11.8% chance of getting VH ASI. If you want to probabilistically guarantee that 50% of the time you will get a VH ASI UV, N = ln(0.5) / ln(0.99875) = 554.2, which means rolling 554 times will give you a 50% chance at a VH ASI UV. I think the rates are a little higher (around 3-4 VH per 100 rolls?), but that still means rolling over 100 times to get a 50% chance.
Anyone want to check my math?
Sat, 03/16/2013 - 10:39
#3
EDIT: Originally, I thought we were computing the probability for ASI VH, so I have since revised this post.
I think the odds of getting medium or better are around 28%. I've kept a spreadsheet on 6000 crafts, and I get a value close to 28%. I assume the designers are using the same probabilities for crafting as they are for Punch.
The odds of getting ASI are (1/8), so the odds of getting ASI medium+ are p=(1/8)*(0.28)=0.035
The whole process of using Punch to get a specific UV is basically a geometric distribution. Each roll is a Bernoulli trial, and we are looking for the expected number of trials until the first success. So it's a geometric random variable where p=0.035.
The expected value of a geometric random variable (the expected number of Punch rolls) is
E = 1 / p
E = 1 / 0.035
E = 28.6 =~ 29 rolls
This would cost you 580,000 crowns.
It may require more or less than 29 rolls, this is just an average.
Sat, 03/16/2013 - 10:23
#4
Its totally random.
I spent 500kcr to get ASI Med on rocket hammer, then rolled once more and got ASI High.
Sat, 03/16/2013 - 14:04
#5
$5-10
Approximate CE:monies value according to crazy auctioneers, if you want it that bad just buy it.
Sat, 03/16/2013 - 14:26
#6
-
I spent 1m in my hammer and I have slime med -.-
Sat, 03/16/2013 - 18:51
#7
Like the others are saying,
Like the others are saying, don't roll if you want an ASI UV.
Unless you get really lucky, it's going to be much cheaper to just buy it directly.
Sat, 03/16/2013 - 19:03
#8
spent 60k, got bad UV's. But
spent 60k, got bad UV's. But like the Black Kat event, Some people are just too lucky, someone got the book on the first kat they saw. Also I once saw this noob with ASI VH on his Rocket hammer... What would be theoretically the best thing to ragecraft for UVs?
Sun, 03/17/2013 - 02:14
#9
lol Contri i feel you, 500k
lol Contri i feel you, 500k invested to my triglav and the best i got was slime high, now its back to undead low :l
Sun, 03/17/2013 - 04:48
#10
But then again... I crafted a
But then again... I crafted a ASI MED flourish on my 5th try. However right afterwards I crafted 20 flourishes with no UV.
Sun, 03/17/2013 - 04:58
#11
Well... I guess Goofio's chart is the best to work on, but still..
I spent about 250k-300k cr on Flourishes 2* and got Attack Speed Increase Very High on the last one...
.
.
Kill me. :|
Sun, 03/17/2013 - 08:54
#12
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lowest: 1
highest:
lim a/h
h->0