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Need Help: Finding the status effect probabilities

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Mon, 09/12/2011 - 09:48
Tarkus
Legacy Username

Everyone is familiar with status effects and how they seem vague with the modifiers before them: Slight, Fair, Moderate, and Good chance to inflict X. I'm trying to find out weapon probabilities as they are not given or in the wiki. I've tried to determine as much as I can from my own weaponry, but the personal cost has become quite fantastic. If you would like to help here is the format:

Weapon: Weapon Name

Data: Several data points of "how many hits till success" separated by stratum, preferably a minimum of ten

Example:

Weapon: Vile Striker

Data:
Stratum 1: 26 36 16 56 6 43 17 3 3 4 5 50 14

Using this data and a some basic knowledge of probability, the community can find out how good or terrible a weapon, when sufficient data is found it will be posted on the wiki for everyone. (Google: Negative Binomial Distribution)

The more people who help the faster this will get done.

Currently findings:

Vile Striker (missing stratum data) ~2.5% (slight) Chance to cause Strong Poison
Dread Venom Striker (missing stratum data) ~3% (slight) Chance to Cause Strong Poison
Blazebrand (missing stratum data) ~42% (good) chance to cause strong fire
Triglav - Special thanks to Ddgom (missing stratum data) ~5% (slight) chance to cause strong freeze
Faust (missing stratum data) ~ 10% (fair) chance to cause strong curse && ~20% chance of receiving curse on charge attack
Polaris - Special thanks to Formost (missing stratum data) ~66% (good) chance of moderate shock

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