Spiral Knights - Purpose of lockboxes?

Purpose of lockboxes?

19 replies [Last post]

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 23:02

Antistone

The night the accessory patch went live, I saw iron lockboxes going on auction for around 30,000 crowns. But the price has dropped steadily since then, and there's now an entire page of iron lockboxes on the auction house with a buy price of 3,050 crowns or less. And it was more like 4,000 last night, so the price is still falling. I saw one with a "buy now" price of only 1500.

The lowest buy price for a silver key on the auction house is 53,999. Which is idiotic, because crystal energy is selling for less than 60 crowns each, so you could buy your own silver key from Boost for 45,000 crowns, but that's still fifteen times the cost of a lockbox.

The point being, there are clearly more lockboxes being found than being opened. Thus, supply keeps going up, the price keeps going down, and we can reasonably expect it to stabilize at something very close to zero. The value of the lockbox itself is quickly becoming negligible; only the keys matter.

Perhaps this is intentional. Maybe the goal is really to sell as many accessories as players could possibly want for approximately the cost of silver keys, so they expect that everyone will have one or more lockboxes basically all the time, and the sole and entire purpose of the boxes is a psychological trick to make players feel invested so that they'll buy more keys. I think that's kind of tacky, but I would understand it.

However, if that is NOT the intention, then EITHER lockboxes are too common OR silver keys are too expensive.

This isn't some whiny sense of entitlement saying that I should be allowed to purchase accessories more cheaply than that--I honestly don't care about accessories, I wouldn't buy silver keys for 50 energy, and I am fully in favor of sucking as much cash as you can out of the players with too much money to spend so you can fund further game development and deter them from bidding up the price of other goods.

Rather, this is an objective conclusion based on empirical data and basic economic theory. The number of people willing to buy random accessories at the current price is simply less than the number of lockboxes being given out. (And I care because I want to profit off of the players who want accessories by selling them lockboxes, I admit it. But that doesn't make this conclusion any less true.)

The devs presumably have access to better data, so they can check for themselves: is the number of unopened lockboxes in circulation stabilizing, or is it still growing? I'll wager it's growing rapidly. There's 27 pages of them on the auction house, that's more than ALL type of accessories COMBINED. It hasn't even been a week and lockboxes already cost less than 10% as much as keys.

If you want players (other than complete newbies) to care about finding lockboxes, I'm pretty sure a change is required.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 00:02

Nicoya-Kitty

It'll stabilize based on the

It'll stabilize based on the relative value of the silver keys and what the accessories themselves sell for in the AH. Essentially, the value of a lockbox is roughly the average value of a known accessory (taking statistical distributions into account) minus the value of a silver key, minus a small margin to cover risk.

So let's say a key is worth roughly 45kcr, and a weighted average price of accessories is 50kcr, then a lockbox will be worth slightly less than 5kcr.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 00:23

Antistone

Yes and No

That's...rather simplistic. If the cost of a lockbox plus a key is less than about 90% of the weighted average cost of an accessory inside, then people can make money by opening boxes and selling the contents on auction, and so presumably someone will do that, driving the cost of accessories down and the cost of energy and lockboxes up until that is no longer true. (Though this isn't 100% guaranteed, depending on the risk involved.)

But lockbox prices aren't the only part of that equation that can change, and nothing stops the weighted average price of an accessory from being less than the cost of a lockbox plus a key--you can't do the process in reverse. And that appears to be where we're rapidly headed.

If more lockboxes get found (across the whole game world) than get opened, the supply of lockboxes increases. That means more and more people trying to sell them, which means they'll have to offer lower and lower prices or the few buyers will buy from someone else, until the price of lockboxes equals the transactional cost--i.e. selling a lockbox is barely worth the trouble of finding a buyer.

To offer a pithy retort: What happens if the weighted average price of an accessory is less than the cost of a key? Are lockboxes going to have a negative price?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 01:10

Nicoya-Kitty

If the weighted average price

If the weighted average price of accessories falls below the value of the price of a key, then the box speculation market will dry up, and the economics of box opening will shift to a different model. In the latter model, box opening will generally be done by those people interested in accessories for themselves which are either rare or exceptionally expensive. You can most simply compare it to the value proposition of rage-crafting an item for a specific UV.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 02:23

Speetz

Very interesting discussion;

Very interesting discussion; though I am not sure how this directly affects players other than not making a killing off Lockboxes.

The keys are pricey because they cost CE. Duh, right? Lockboxes are random items in game, that basically set their own price by rarity, and therefore the amount of players willing or able to sell them. Even if the keys weren't around, and you just opened them, they would set their own price eventually. Hence the extreme price degradation.

So, who cares? I can see it being a problem from a Dev point of view, but as you said this is probably their intent. Make it easy to get the box so you want the damn key, and get all uppity and spend CE/cash for a Key.

Look at TF2's model. It's very similar. People drop like 200 $ on keys at a time and then open like 100 boxes, which they get for very cheap. I can't remember their currency in game (Even though I play it XD) but it cost jack diddily to get a box, and keys in game cost tons, or the equivalent of around $2.50-$3, just like our keys.

So it probably is intended. Especially after looking at TF2 and their economy and way keys and boxes move. Though you both have developed well thought out theories; I just wouldn't worry about it.

Though if you can make me interested or concerned, and able to see the possible side effects, do it.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 05:45

Kwizzy

Lockboxes were a crown sink.

Lockboxes were a crown sink. They got people to buy CR, sold for high values on the AH, and 12% of the crowns in each transaction went poof from the economy.

CE prices dropped substantially for all the people who buy it with mist-earned crowns. And they were also a CE sink, with people adventuring more into the Clockworks trying for them... either for their own use or selling. And then there's every $2.50 a box tempted someone into paying for a key... think of it like an advertisement.

It was very successful even with the gambling/speculator craze only lasting a week. I'm sure they have plans for the future, no point in us worrying about it.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:28

Antistone

@Speetz: "The keys are

@Speetz: "The keys are pricey because they cost CE. Duh, right? Lockboxes are random items in game, that basically set their own price by rarity, and therefore the amount of players willing or able to sell them. Even if the keys weren't around, and you just opened them, they would set their own price eventually. Hence the extreme price degradation."

Things that are sold in unlimited quantities by vendors have a price that is largely fixed. Whether that price is "pricey" or not depends on what the vendors charge for them; OOO could make silver keys cost much less or much more than they currently do at their whim (though not without repercussions to the number of keys being sold). The fact that the price is in CE or crowns doesn't make it "pricey".

Heart pendants are random drops and "set their own price", but the stronger ones still sell for millions of crowns. The fact that something is a random drop doesn't automatically mean that it's worthless or that the price will rapidly degrade, it depends how many drop and how much people want them.

As Nicoya observed, if people are willing to pay more on average for the contents of a lockbox than the cost of a key, lockboxes should be worth something. I don't think this is currently the case, but OOO could make it the case by making lockboxes more rare (reducing supply, so fewer accessories get sold but at higher prices) or reducing the cost of keys (lowering the value threshold accessories have to reach to be worthwhile).

The expected side effect of the current apparent mismatch is that lockboxes become like certain crafting materials: everyone has more than they're ever realistically going to need, which means you can't really sell them and no one cares about finding more. I admit, worse problems probably exist in the game. But these had a lot of hype, fizzled really fast, and appear to be really easy to change, so this may still be worth addressing.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:53

Gwenyvier

Lockboxes are common due to

Lockboxes are common due to how they are obtained and how many people play the game, it is one item that has the possibility of generating one of over 100 different items. Some accessories are worth little, like the Canteen I pulled out of one before hopping off the game for the day (30k max). Others, like the Twinkle Aura my friend pulled out, can sell for very large amounts. Many people are not willing to open them due to not wanting to buy the keys, that creates a surplus of the boxes, and the price drops. Anybody remember when Sun Silvers and Flame Souls costed 15k each? Yea, same thing happened. Surplus was created due to people farming them and the price plummeted down to 3k and 500 respectfully.

As for the purpose of Lockboxes? I would think that would be obvious, to sell CE. People are willing to spend insane amounts in order to customize their avatars in games. Don't believe me? Check out the variety of Nexon games. There's normally some items in the cash shop that will give you an advantage, but the majority of them are cosmetic... and expire after a certain amount of time.

~Gwen

Sun, 10/16/2011 - 00:17

Antistone

Lockboxes now at 2000 crowns on the auction house and still falling.

Anyone want to predict when the price will reach 1k? I give it a week.

Sun, 10/16/2011 - 02:33

Five-Hundred

TRADE THEM FOR CRATES IN TF2!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 01:11

#10

Andraxcore

imo it would have made more

imo it would have made more sense for boost to sell lockboxes and put the keys in the prize wheel. That way the thing that actually carries the accessory is more expensive than the thing that's only used to open it.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 13:19

#11

Antistone

I'm starting to see the

I'm starting to see the occasional lockbox on the auction house with a buy price of 1000 crowns. It's not consistent yet, but looks like my guess of a week was quite optimistic.

Simultaneously, crystal energy prices are rising. Within a day or three lockboxes will be worth less than the mini-mist tanks some people suggested should be added to the wheels as a consolation prize!

I received a ghost bell from the prize wheel once! I bet that's already worth more than a lockbox! How long until players are making more money from the prize wheel by selling crafting materials than by selling lockboxes? Maybe another week or two?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 19:13

#12

Axellon

Amen to that

something really does need to change. this is just silly from an economic perspective.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 20:19

#13

Antistone

Shadow Keys

Lockboxes have gotten a reprieve from the introduction of Shadow Keys, it will take at least a few days (and quite possibly longer) to see what effect that has. Won't surprise me if they still end up being worthless, but we'll have to see.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 20:21

#14

Happyapathy

personally I would like to

personally I would like to see them dramatically lower the price of silver keys (200 CE perhaps) AND remove all currently existing lockboxes (you get to keep the accessories you have), compensate players for 2000 cr for each box they have, then start the whole thing over again.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 21:09

#15

Starlinvf

People will still complain

People will still complain about shadow keys not showing up frequently enough....

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 00:18

#16

Antistone

Post-Shadow Key Price Update

Shadow keys are auctioning for upwards of 400,000 crowns (I've seen at least 3 separate keys that had actual bids that high, not just optimistic sellers). And it's quite possible that buying one is still profitable, if you're a party of 4 that can beat the shadow lair, since I see people trying to sell nightmare manes for half that (though I'm not sure whether they're actually finding buyers).

Lockboxes, on the other hand, are back down to 1500 buyout, and still seem to be falling.

OK, so either...

Shadow keys are roughly as rare as the super-rare accessories that also command six-figure price tags, so their addition didn't make opening lockboxes substantially more profitable.
Opening lockboxes is now a lot more profitable, but they were so awful before that the average contents is still worth less than a silver key AFTER the improvement.
There's so many secrets and barriers to entry and other crap that the market can't adjust efficiently.

It would be really interesting to know the distribution of lockbox contents, but I suppose the cost of gathering that data is prohibitive...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:50

#17

Antistone

Bunch of lockboxes on auction house with buyouts of 1000 crowns. One with a buyout of 700 crowns.

Saw a Shadow Key with a bid placed for 590,000 crowns.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 13:03

#18

Orangeo

Less lockboxes + Mores shadow

Less lockboxes + Mores shadow keys per box (prehaps not more total) = awesome.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 02:43

#19

Myphenox

accessorys are good but,

accessorys are good but, getting them is more of a chore then a fun challeng. silverkeys are to exppensive. you never know what you'll get and will probably end up depressed. needs something done about this.

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Purpose of lockboxes?