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Standardized Probability

6 replies [Last post]
Mon, 10/31/2011 - 18:21
Cosmovibe

So I've been doing some runs recently to try and get some candy, and I'm quite frustrated.

I'm only been getting the Punkin King about 2/5ths of the time, and when I do, I very rarely get Sweet Candy. Just as comparison, I have over 100 Hard Candy and only 60-ish Sweet Candy. The last two runs of candy I've gotten 6 Hard Candy and 3 Sour Candy, no Sweet Candy at all.

In comparison, my friends get about a 1:1 ratio of all types of candy, and get the Punkin King well over 3/5ths of the time. Why is there such a difference? Is it because probability isn't standardized or am I really just THAT unlucky?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 18:26
#1
Khamsin's picture
Khamsin
What does standardized

What does standardized probability mean? I'm a senior actuarial sciences major and that means absolutely nothing to me.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 18:36
#2
Cosmovibe
Oops

Sorry, I should've explained what I meant.

Technically, with true probability, it's possible to flip a coin and get 50 heads in a row. By "standardized probability" I mean artificially changing the odds such that the more heads you get in a row, the less likely it is to get another heads, which makes the distribution of your probability a bit more consistent, so something like 50 heads in a row could never happen.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 18:40
#3
Juances's picture
Juances
ummm can I say too late? The

ummm can I say too late?
The system is supposed to be random so you are unlucky but now that you mention, I do have less sweet candy an d a lot of hard candy.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 18:42
#4
Heavy-Duty's picture
Heavy-Duty
...

Well what I've noticed, Treats give you more Sweets while Tricks give more Sours and both give the same amount of Hard. And how 2/5ths of the time? If you've been entering deconstruction zones, you're not going to find him. Last two runs? Bring friends to help you find him and beat him.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 18:57
#5
Cosmovibe
I have not been entering

I have not been entering Deconstruction Zones, and beating him isn't difficult. Regardless, he drops about the same total number of candy each time, what I think I am unlucky about is the frequency in which I see him and the distribution of candy dropped.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 22:09
#6
Evilnut's picture
Evilnut
I get different amount. Sweet

I get different amount. Sweet > Sour > Hard for me. I already got all masks except the replica one with hard candies. Need 13 more.

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