I spend like 30 1-UV tickets on a graviton bomb and got allmost everything but just not one single time CTR. Am i just unlucky or isn't it possible?
graviton bomb CTR UV
Tue, 08/20/2013 - 13:42
Tue, 08/20/2013 - 13:54
#2
Where the hell did you found enough money for 30 1 uv tickets?
And if you had SO MUCH CR why did you not purchase 1 3uv ticket!?
Tue, 08/20/2013 - 14:02
#3
probability is about 1%
On a bomb, there are seven types of UVs; we have no reason to believe that they are not equally likely. So the probability of getting CTR seems to be 1/7, and the probability of not getting CTR is 6/7. If you roll 30 times, and the rolls are independent, then the chances of never getting CTR are
(6/7)^30 = 0.00980836 = 0.98%.
So, either you were quite unlucky, or the UVs are not equally likely. Do you have a detailed record of your rolls? Many people, including me, would love to see the data.
Edit: If your goal is to get a particular type of UV, then you definitely want to buy 1-UV tickets many times, rather than 3-UV tickets fewer times.
Tue, 08/20/2013 - 14:02
#4
It isn't worth to use a 3-UV
It isn't worth to use a 3-UV ticket. The chance for each UV is the same. On a bomb you only want CTR and i didn't buy the tickets all at the same time.
Tue, 08/20/2013 - 14:29
#5
@BoppBut then there's the
@Bopp
But then there's the type of CTR that OP wants. What CTR is it that you want? CTR low? CTR med? The probability is much wider than just 7 chances. The damage bonus can either be med, low, or high; the same for the CTR that OP wants. The probability range is much bigger than just 1 out of 7. It's at least more than 2x that.
CTR: Low, Med, High
Damage Bonus:
Gremlins: Low, Med, High
Fiends: Low, Med, High
Beast: Low, Med, High
Undead: Low, Med, High
Construct: Low, Med, High
Slime: Low, Med, High
The chances of getting CTR low are 1/21 chances. Be prepared to REPEAT a lot of the same UVs, for who knows how many times. Luckily the UV rolling is more forgiving than the actual Lottery, as to you being 1 in a million of becoming the grand winner of 5 million dollars. You'll have more luck getting the CTr UV that you want than actually winning the lottery ;)
Tue, 08/20/2013 - 14:56
#6
Btw its Low, Med, High and
Btw its Low, Med, High and very High. CTR would be 4 out of 28. :/
Tue, 08/20/2013 - 15:11
#7
can I just point out that
4 in 28 is in fact the same odds as 1 in 7.
Sorry, you just got unlucky it seems.
Tue, 08/20/2013 - 15:28
#8
It says in the wiki that bomb
It says in the wiki that bomb CTR chances are 10%
1-0.9^30=0.043.
You basically had a 4% of Not getting CTR UV.
"
Better UVs are less likely to occur. Here is a breakdown of how often each degree of UV has been observed on bombs: [3]
Low: 65.74% ± 8.95%
Medium: 21.30% ± 7.72%
High: 7.41% ± 4.94%
Very High: 5.56% ± 4.32% "
Another study estimated the probabilities at 66.67%, 27.41%, 4.44%, and 1.48%.
Wed, 08/21/2013 - 04:51
#9
I know
I know that higher UVs are less likely than lower UVs. But the original poster was complaining about not getting ANY CTR UVs. I responded exactly to what his post said. If you want, I can compute various other probabilities, that he wasn't talking about.
Edit: Krns, the 10% figure on the wiki is the chance of getting any UV when you craft a bomb, not the chance of getting a CTR UV when you buy a UV on a bomb.
Wed, 08/21/2013 - 00:47
#10
Thanks Bopp.
I usually rage to much when i don't get what i want instead of making some stats.
It's the same as playing the lottery... I doubt it would be fixed... Have you ever won money from the lottery? Ever been the grand winner of over 1 million dollars? How many times have you played the lottery? How many tickets have you bought? The same concept applies to UV rolling.