I've been primarily using the medium crystal amounts trying to find the actual probability of forging success, and right now I'm seeing success about 1 in 5 times. It's advertised at a much higher percentage. I've chatted with other players who've noticed the same thing. Could this be a randomizer-seed issue?

EDIT: As time goes on my rate has dropped to less than 1 in 8... Not good. And to be more clear, the medium level's advertised rate of *success* fluctuates between 70% and 80% depending on the level, but so far it seems like a fluke whenever I DO have a successful forge at the medium level!
(It has been noted that the chances of receiving one of the random bonuses also seems way to low, might this be related? Of course, the proper odds are not posted, but it's frustratingly rare, and not in a good way)