Spiral Knights - Heat Leveling Percentages Accurate?

Heat Leveling Percentages Accurate?

4 replies [Last post]

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 05:30

Taint

Hi,

last night I heat levelled around 5 different items. As normal I attempted to use the 'mid' level of heat crystal use; which was giving me a 70% estimate of success. The items were 4 star and fairly high level 7-8; so use a large number of crystals.

Of the 5 attempts, only one succeeded. Which is contrary to an estimated 70% success. At 70% I should have seen a 1 in 5 failure rate; not four failures in a row.

I have now started using a 'high' number of crystals, to ensure success; however this is an expensive way to level an item; especially considering the number I wasted last night.

This seems to have been a recent change; so I have to wonder if this is a bug?

Thanks

Taint

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 05:58

Zaffy-Laffy

Perhaps you are just unlucky. Luck just goes that way.

Doing just 5 times make your "research" very inaccurate. If you really want to be sure, try doing it a 100 times then.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 10:31

Taint

I'd hardly call it

I'd hardly call it 'research', and if you have the free cash to attempt it 100 times, please be my guest.

The issue is statistics not luck. A 70% success rate is approximately only a 1 in 5 failure rate; while a 1 in 5 success rate is closer to 20%.

Considering that the majority of my kit has been levelled from 1 star, and I know my previous success rate, I only suggest that 4 failures in a row may be indicative of a bug; hence I post it here, in the bug forum.

I'll write the lost crystals off as a lesson, but if it's a bug, it will affect a larger number of users than just myself.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 10:43

Zaffy-Laffy

Statistics wise, you are not being precise. 5 times is nothing to be compared with. Suggesting that you have a 70% chance of successful forge rate, you had a 0.00567% chance of reaching this state of yours. Consider yourself 0.00567% lucky, it's just luck. If you think you could fail 9 times, well, there is always that chance.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 11:28

Skepticraven

@Taint

That is not how stats work. Zaffy is trying to say you got the short end of the draw multiple times (which statistics says is extremely unlucky but still possible).

Right now I'm the only one (that I know of) hosting a forge data analysis.
However, my interests are in finding the %'s for the bonuses (that they don't tell you). I need a lot of data to give a good estimate. However, I can't help you with any data for not using the 100% successful forge chance (but I have places for it if people contribute data).

I've heard elsewhere that someone else was this unlucky, so it very well may be an actual bug (although unlikely). I have no data to support either side of the claims.

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Heat Leveling Percentages Accurate?