Spiral Knights - Just in case anyone was in doubt. (Analysis of player numbers for the last 2 years)

Just in case anyone was in doubt. (Analysis of player numbers for the last 2 years)

29 replies [Last post]

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 10:57

Klipik-Forum

Here are the steam player numbers for Spiral Knights since August 2012.

---The +165 avg. players in Nov. '12 is from the GH update, which returns to avg. levels in 2 weeks.
---The +1275 avg. players in August '13 is from the Sprites update, which returns to normal levels in about a month, right before DH festival AND Apocrea kick off on 10/23 to knock it back up about half as high as the week of BS. Notice how the Arcade Redux phase 1 update, the week before DH, gets no player bump whatsoever.
---There is a small uptick in players in December, presumably from holiday breaks from school/work and winterfest having actual difficult content.
---Since Winterfest ended, the number of players has been slowly but steadily declining despite only ~20 days where there was not some sort of energy prize box promotion running.
---The Tortodrone update did not draw any significant amount of players, and coincidentally only had one new playable level with only one room.

Summary: Only the biggest updates, which occur once a year usually in the 3rd/beginning of 4th financial quarter (SLs for 2011, GH for 2012, BS for 2013, Gunner for 2014) draw significant upswings in player numbers. Those updates keep players longer if they have take longer to play through and have more gameplay-focused content, but still only keep players for 1-2 months. Without fairly consistent game content updates, the playerbase declines and has been doing so for the last 6 months.

Not quite #dedgaem, but getting there.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 11:09

Dragneel-Wiki

Though I do agree that the playerbase is quite small for a game like SK. (What, something like 3k-4k?) I think you should include the charts of non-steam players. Now that's impossible, because there is no such place to get that info from, so we can't really say for sure that SK is dying....

#SortOf#Somehow#About#DedGaem#I#HopeNot#TooMuchHashtags

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 11:26

Xtweeterx

For the first time in my life.

THANK YOU, Dragneel.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 11:29

Markus-Aurelius

Wow, this steamcharts.com has some really interesting information.

While this information doesn't necessarily reflect the amount of players not using the steam client, it is not far fetched to presume similar trends are occurring away from steam. It is possible non-steam clients are doing better, but the steam trends definitely provide a sizable group to analyze and interpret. I hope the game is doing better away from steam, but I probably wouldn't bet on it.

Nice information and analysis, Klipik!

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 11:33

Mystrian

Huehue. these steam stats matters how? If you like the game, play it. If you played and don't like it, then leave the game. Simple.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 11:59

Addy

can we talk about other F2P

can we talk about other F2P games on Steam and their player bases?

http://steamcharts.com/app/212160 - Vindictus
Last 30 Days - 1,432 Peak Players
http://steamcharts.com/app/216150 - Maplestory
Last 30 Days - 620 Peak Players
http://steamcharts.com/app/231060 - Ragnarok Online 2
Last 30 Days - 397 Peak Players
http://steamcharts.com/app/200210 - Realm of the Mad God
Last 30 Days - 1,522 Peak Players
http://steamcharts.com/app/212500 - Lord of the Rings Online
Last 30 Days - 1,227 Peak Players
http://steamcharts.com/app/11610 - Dragon Nest
Last 30 Days - 420 Peak Players (lol)

I'm not as familiar with these other games but I've never once heard that any of them were dead or dying, and SK beats out nearly all of them with its Steam numbers alone. As Dragoneel mentioned, you can't account for people who play SK with the standalone client, through Kongregate, Aeria Games, Newgrounds, etc.

Even Risk of Rain (single player game tho) has lower numbers than Spiral Knights and they only recently had a pretty major update:
http://steamcharts.com/app/248820

We're sitting here obsessing about how "dead" Spiral Knights is, completely ignoring that yeah, it's not going to be TF2-levels of popular - but it's still one of the most popular games I can find.

SK is #129 currently in the top Steam games being played right at this moment, ranking above Half-Life 2, Fallout: New Vegas, Call of Duty: Modern Warfares 2 AND 3, and DC Universe Online. To name a few big ones. Considering that most of the games above it are big-name, wide releases, I'd say #129 is pretty dang good.

also, to consider: http://steamcharts.com/top/p.56
There are over 1,300 games being tracked by this (I got bored trying to scroll farther than this)
so with my limited data, SK is in the most popular 10% of ALL Steam games.

And again, we're still only counting Steam numbers.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 11:46

Markus-Aurelius

Ja, that is true, Mystrian.

This topic has been tossed around quite a bit over the history of the game. Yes, it is impossible to get stats on all the game's clients, so we cannot ever get a very accurate interpretation of the game's state.

Addy brings up an excellent point. Comparing other games' stats to SK paints a more accurate picture of how SK is doing.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:16

Addy

http://steamcharts.com/top/p.

http://steamcharts.com/top/p.187 lol I went and found the end anyway

so with Spiral Knights being #129 out of 4920, my limited math skills lead me to believe it's in the top 2.6% of all Steam games, right now - on a Friday afternoon, even

It's be worth checking this again at another time, like tonight or Saturday evening, when people tend to be gaming the hardest! I'll try to make a note to check again then.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:07

Fehzor

We're not doing so so terribly, we're just not the next Minecraft or Team Fortress 2-- which is what we supposedly have the potential to become.

The Binding of Isaac- a game that flat out isn't getting content updates, is still doing better than us at around 5K players.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:12

Markus-Aurelius

Hmmm...

Once you get out of the top 50, the gaming populations of the individual games become much closer. In fact, if you add 500 players to Spiral Knights, SK jumps a little over 30 spots and would be in the top 100. Just something I found to be interesting.

While SK is doing poorly compared to the top 50, it doesn't look like it would take too much to greatly improve its standing compared to other steam games.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:13

#10

Klipik-Forum

@Drag

I know the numbers on steam aren't the total numbers for non-steam players, but I think it's safe to assume that they're representative of the whole when looking at how numbers go up and down.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:19

#11

Glowupball

Whoa, no way.

No way, that surprised me. I don't think SK is flourishing as much as it could/should, but man, out of all the things said in this forum recently, Addy's post has got to be the most convincing of anything (for me at least). I mean it's hard to argue with that data and those other games are very heavily advertised and almost commonplace on the average gamer's computer.

I mean some of those games have steam events, so it would be good to have them steam connected and then the charts would take them into account. Now as Addy said the numbers do not mean anything is definite, but I gotta say thanks for bringing up this speck of hope for this game.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:22

#12

Glad-Amparus

Let's get PewDiePie to advertise Spiral Knights by playing it. Then we can get well over 10k players daily. =]

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:26

#13

Addy

I don't think it's unfair to

I don't think it's unfair to say that a game is slowing down right now, especially when there's a big update promised "soon," so people are putting off playing and burning out so they can get all their playtime in when new content is finally released. I admit that even I've been playing a bit less lately.

Even still, SK is one of the consistently most played games on Steam, and out of all of my games in my library, only Team Fortress 2 has more friends who've played it. (I don't know about Dota2 since I don't have it installed but it might be fair to assume that beats SK also, but I mean. It's Dota2, haha. SK and LoL/Dota2/TF2/WoW aren't really comparable. AAA, big business companies, versus a relatively indie studio?)

Also I'm not arguing the Binding of Isaac's popularity, but wasn't it on sale somewhat recently? If so, a spike is definitely to be expected. It's a roguelike so that's a pretty easy game to pick up and play, each playthrough's gonna be 100% different, and I do believe it's a popular one to stream on Twitch even. Plus, while no new content is coming out, the remake/sequel is being planned.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:43

#14

Wodanct

You obviously skipped this free to play game on purpose.

http://steamcharts.com/app/230410#All

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 12:57

#15

Whimsicality

And for good reason.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 13:00

#16

Addy

@Wodanct

Actually no, I didn't intentionally leave it out, I just named all the "MMO-style" games I could think of, I kinda forgot about Warframe because of the gameplay differences and ... I also forgot it was F2P, haha. That was my bad.

I will say though, that despite it having 18k players online right now, it's also a completely different type of game, and I'm pretty sure is updated fairly often considering they're a much larger studio, and they're coming to Xbox One and PS4. Very hard to accurately compare the two in a fair sort of way.

Even still, one game doesn't really undo the points I tried to make. Warframe's a preeetty big popular game, and Spiral Knights isn't doing anywhere near as badly as everybody else is trying to make it sound like.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 13:42

#17

Lesserfruit

How about

How about we stop complaining and posting negative threads that discourage new players, and start putting a plug on the complaints spewing out of your mouths.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 14:02

#18

Skepticraven

↓

Maybe the reason is that other game releases drew other players away from SK temporarily.
Maybe the reason is that SK was advertised on steam's news page.
Maybe there are actually fewer players.
Maybe there is just a change of players because of school.

Not only does the "steam only" argument fail to adequately hold the depth of the data...
There is a famous saying:
Correlation does not imply causation.
For example, just because two things happen at the same time does not mean they actually influence one another. Otherwise, California lawyers are obviously causing the increase in pet food prices.

Did all the updates actually cause the influx and outflux of players? Were there other influences?

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 14:20

#19

Addy

http://www.tylervigen.com/

http://www.tylervigen.com/ Skepticraven, you'll love this website.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 14:21

#20

Skepticraven

↑

Did you see where I linked from, Addy? :P

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 14:31

#21

Addy

oh jeez, I clicked but didn't

oh jeez, I clicked but didn't notice hahah

then I was like INSPIRATION -> and googled around until I found that, whoops

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 14:39

#22

Ljl-Skullcandy

Oh nooesss.....

You forgot TF2 Addy D;

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 14:51

#23

Addy

I mentioned TF2.Just because

I mentioned TF2.

Just because Spiral Knights can't beat out one of the most popular games in the English-speaking world does not make it a failure by any means. It doesn't mean it's dying. Spiral Knights is doing better than more than 90% of the games on Steam by a pretty healthy margin and people are nitpicking my argument... why? Do you want this game to be failing? :s

Edit:
By the logic presented in this thread, based on this screenshot -
http://i.gyazo.com/b67f04da37e39e1cf2c1d0026d6df46b.png
- TF2 is failing in comparison to Dota2. Warframe has 18k players online right now to Dota2's 503k. That's over half a million players on Dota2 right this minute.

I don't think anybody is making the claim that TF2 is dying, or that Warframe is dying, considering the whole bread-based ARG picking up steam these last few days. Spiral Knights is inherently a smaller game, smaller studio, smaller everything, but has been holding steady and DESPITE being put together by a company I literally had never heard of before this game, they're doing REALLY well in comparison to some big-name games.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 14:48

#24

Addy

Also since this discussion,

Also since this discussion, Spiral Knights has moved /up/ to the 117 spot. I mention this only because that's one of my favorite numbers. :D

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:02

#25

Whimsicality

Garry's Mod is dying and LoL is an evil game, rest in pieces Ron Paul

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 17:59

#26

Shamanalah

my 2 cents

SK is not dying but is probably in the worst shape it has been (except pre Steam launch).

The game has great potential, had good suggestion and OOO never really bothered to LOOK for a lead dev and an unix sysadmin, they just put a page and hopes someone comes in. I think after one year and still no one applying you should be doing something else.

Also end-game isn't existant because the game was meant to play a little everyday, not all day. That's why it became boring fast over the last year, where you would do 2-4 vana per day at max, now we do 20-40 and upwards. It grinds the fun out faster.

I prefer the old system of SK for that, Mist had more a F2P feel and didn't feel like a chore to grind 2 vana and do more since it yielded enough to buy ce to do more... and get little profit. I still remember the recipe market... *sigh*

Now SK is all about using paint.

Fri, 06/13/2014 - 22:17

#27

Floerail

and again..

you guys can't compare hidden game which most of their member come from steam and friend story (spiral knights) with other game which most of their member come from advertise and game rank..

if you guys try to play some of game addy listed above, you will see the difference is big with steam chart... because
1. if they know or join from advertise, they will send directly to official site or not steam
2. same like above~ if they find the game from rank, they will just search it in google then come to official site
3. some game are known by legend and movies (first ragnarok game and lord of the ring in tv) but again.. mostly people will just use google to find this game out~

spiral knights might have big number of player when they first come out, because there is event which give you steam mask if you invit your friend to this game (now give you spark of life for each person) and spiral sallet (which attract large amount of player, but most of them leave after got spiral sallet). but this marketing tactic failed and only attract few people.. because this is when sk still limited with mist and sk creepy server (my friend who play tf2 without problem got a delay or bad ping in spiral knights)

@Shamanalah

i would agree if they make gear craft from mist is bound to user.. or only allowed mist for elevator use, because people can abuse this to become rich like have ton of gear with cheap price or get uv from alt rage craft (those abuser still alive now). but for some reason i really disagree this because most of my friend from mmo gaming website and other not like sk or leave sk because of limited play mist give (even we still can buy ce then play again) you can just see how much people complain about this in gaming website + give bad rating because this.. not only that, this also make our game and ooo fall down which is bad for spiral knights future~

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 09:21

#28

Onekone

Today Saturday evening (22:37

Today Saturday evening (22:37 UTC+7 as of now). Current Top100 users play

Spiral Knights is not even in there.

>it's also a completely different type of game, and I'm pretty sure is updated fairly often considering they're a much larger studio, and they're coming to Xbox One and PS4. Very hard to accurately compare the two in a fair sort of way.
Being in different genre doesn't mean anything, neither size of the studio - OOO could've done a lot more if they're wanted and not toyed with pallete editor. And statistics never were fair.

Also, to compare with select few other F2P MMOs
Warframe - 16234 (24h peak) - 15881 (2h)
Rift - 2049 (24h peak) - 1890 (1h)
Hawken - 1307 (24h peak; 2h)
SK - 1178 (24h peak) - 960 (2h)
El Sword - 719 (24h peak) - 411 (2h)
Rangarok Online 2 - 239 (24h peak)- 182 (2h)

Sat, 06/14/2014 - 10:52

#29

Addy

Size of the studio DOES

Size of the studio DOES affect how much advertising budget they have though, in addition to resources to improve the game via updates and etc. Everybody's complaining that this very small team can't pump out updates as fast as like TF2 or WoW but those are teams of HUNDREDS of people. Each update brings in new people no matter what size of the game (even the OP's data proves that with SK), and a lack of updates can hurt the player population, which is kind of where we're sitting.

I wasn't trying to cherry-pick statistics, I have a pretty terrible computer and am out of the loop with a lot of recent F2P stuff. ;w; (And even still, I acknowledged several times that SK wasn't even in the top 100, but still doing REALLY well compared to other HUGE games, CoD:MW2/3, etc.)
Though I gotta say, for a dying game with a team of around 20-25 people (guessing, not 100% sure on that one), having over half as many players as a game like RIFT which was a huuuge AAA release, ads all over IGN/Kotaku, commercials, etc? Kind of awesome, especially for a "dying" game that rarely advertises. (And again - We're ONLY COUNTING STEAM NUMBERS.)

It's literally impossible for us to have any accurate statistics without working for OOO ourselves (since we have players from the standalone client, Aeria, Kongregate, Newgrounds, etc). So this is all still speculation, anyway, even mine. I'm just on the side that y'all are way too negative.

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Just in case anyone was in doubt. (Analysis of player numbers for the last 2 years)