Hello, since I know quite a bit about statistics and how random number generators work in PCs, I wanted to share a little opinion with you all. I have a specific opinion and you won't like it.
Thing is, the chance of getting a Book of Dark Rituals (same as Black Kat spawn rate) is random, not incremental.
Problem with random number generator versus statistics is the fact its random.
Normally, you'd have a higher chance for a non-usual event to happen if you tried and tried and tried. As long as there was a non-zero chance of something unusual happening in the first place. Simply speaking, statistic says, that if you have 99% to hit someone in Spiral Knights, you'll have slightly smaller chance to hit them twice in a row, and a rather low chance to hit them 100.000 times in a row without missing once.
The sad part is: this doesn't apply to Computers. Computer random number generators reset chances EACH TIME they roll a random number. This means, effectively:
Every time you kill a black kat, you have a fixed chance of a book appearing. And chance is so small, you have a better chance of winning a lottery. If lottery was played once a day, and you played for 10 years straight, you'd certainly win at some point. Problem with computer-based random number generator: it can simply roll you for 100s of years without letting you win, statistics don't apply to random number generators (or you could win instantly).
This is why I keep saying that "low chance grind" is the worst thing in MMO computer games. Collecting 1.000-10.000 items of some specific sort, or killing 1.000 Spookats would be simpler, as it'd give you a goal at which you'd obtain your desired item. As it stands now, you have a chance to get no books of dark ritual even after 10.000 black kat spawns. The chance is low, but it exists.
So, if you're going to keep on playing this even, please do so for your own pleasure and enjoyment, but don't expect to get a book of dark rituals. If you win a lottery, great! Except that you won't. Some win it by pure coincidence. But you won't. And I won't. And that guy there won't. And the guy left of him won't. If you're going to be sad about not winning the lottery - don't. Its not made to be won.
My conclusion:
Enjoy the game! :)
"the chance of getting a Book of Dark Rituals (same as Black Kat spawn rate) is random, not incremental."
Probably, but we don't know for sure how drops work. It's reasonable to test otherwise.
"if you have 99% to hit someone in Spiral Knights, you'll have slightly smaller chance to hit them twice in a row, and a rather low chance to hit them 100.000 times in a row without missing once[...] this doesn't apply to Computers"
What doesn't? What you just described is typical RNG.
"And chance [of finding a book] is so small, you have a better chance of winning a lottery."
no
"Some win it by pure coincidence. But you won't."
Thanks.