█【Rolling Data】█ New rolling data & study, suggests a ~10% chance of getting a Very High variant

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Beartamer's picture
Beartamer

Due to how relevant this is to the economic side of the game, I decided to place this in the market section as it's the most fitting and relevant. This is also my old sales and giveaway thread, so that should explain the first page of comments.

In response to some e-mails, I decided to share my Unique Variant system with players. For those of you that know me, I am no longer an active player, but I have run some analysis on rolling statistics in Spiral Knights. My data shows that rolling is instance dependent and can be slightly manipulated to make Punch pay out more VH UV’s.

I charged some folks with publishing our findings, but since that hasn’t happened yet (and it sounds like people are still getting ripped off by “merchants”), I’ll let the community have it and come up with their own conclusions. Here is data from 625 rolls I have run: http://tinyurl.com/SpiralKnightsRolls

Pay attention to the havens these are rolled in, they pay out differently than English havens due to the sparse population, how they reset often and the amount other players roll in them. My understanding is that these are modulating factors, though I can't make a solid public comment as to the *how* these affect rolling.

Here’s a summary of how likely I am to get a UV with my system:

  Low Variant: 49.4% (309/625)

  Medium Variant: 22% (138/625)

  High Variant: 18.7% (117/625)

  Very High Variant: 9.76% (61/625)

Compared to other people’s rolls and the current wiki data, I am roughly twice as likely to roll a High or Very High variant, which makes a big difference in bulk, and basically can completely subvert a market.

Anyways, I hope you guys can work with this data. It usually costs me from 8-12kCE to roll a VH UV of my choice which I can fence for 16kCE or merchant for 18-28kCE depending on the weapon / demand. I hope this helps other players if they are on the fence between considering paying for UV's or trading items.

Teddysmacker's picture
Teddysmacker
Bump

Yo, Tamer. Free bump for you.

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
[OUTDATED] Giveaway information

IGN: Bear-Tamer
Preferred method of contact: In-game mail

Howdy.

In real life, I am working on moving to Seattle and attending a new university. In-game, I couldn't be more dissatisfied by OOO and the recent updates. It seems the community, balance issues and pay-to-win aspects can only get worse from here on out, and while I may decide to share my thoughts on this elsewhere, here I will be giving away all my equipment.

I will be giving all my stuff away for unbind price ONLY, by this Friday (6/24).

===INSTRUCTIONS===

  1. You can have ONE of any non-reserved item for 4kCE (The unbind fee) with a few stipulations.
  2. You cannot get an item you already have. No exceptions.
  3. People who "merch" or want to resell this gear will be rejected.
  4. Take screenshots of your equipment inventory and post it in this thread to make a reservation request.
  5. (E.g. if you want a gun, screenshot your guns, upload the shot to imgur.com and post the image in this thread. If Printscreen doesn't work, press F12 and check your desktop)

  6. I'll give the item to the person reserving it once they can pay the unbind fee. If they can't pay by friday... Sucks :(
  7. I already gave all my money to Promise people
  8. Please don't PM me in game to ask about the rules / beg.
  9. These instructions are straightforward. The only way to reserve an item at this time is to post a screenshot and ask in this forum post. I will ignore anyone in-game who sends me incessant PM's about this (asking for exceptions, etc). The rules are clear.

In summary, people who need my stuff will get mystuff.

You *MUST* follow these instructions to receive an item.
(Yes, some Promise members will be given multiple items)

===INVENTORY===

  Weapons
  - Overcharged Mixmaster
    ASI:M CTR:VH Undead:VH
        Reserved: Teddysmacker (Completed)
  - Polaris
    ASI:VH
        Reserved: Dragonuity (Completed)
  - Argent Peacemaker
    ASI:H
        Reserved: Swiftdream (Completed)
  - Nog Blaster
    ASI:M
        Reserved: Ipipex (Completed)
  - Electron Vortex
    CTR:M
        Reserved: Cinwahs (Completed)
  - Shivermist Buster
    CTR:M
        Reserved: Tryhardbanana (Completed)
  - Jack Froster
    CTR:L
        Reserved: Forever-Envious (Completed)

  - Grim Repeater
    ASI:L CTR:M
        Forgot who I sold this to.
  - Phantamos
    ASI:M
        Reserved: Zurmar (Completed)
  - Winter Grave
    ASI:M & CTR:M
        Reserved: Ieast (Completed)
  - Obsidian Carbine
    ASI:M
        Reserved: Fear-Da-Ganjamon (Completed)
  - Acheron
    ASI:VH
        Reserved: Dragonuity (Completed)
  - Spiral Soaker
    ASI:L CTR:M
        Reserved: Skuld-Norn (Completed)
  - Savage Tortofist
    ASI:M
        Reserved: Deboochery (Completed)
  - Riftlocker
    ASI:M
        Reserved: Mrgrey (Completed)
  - Barbarous Thorn Blade
    ASI:VH
        Reserved: Teddysmacker (Completed)

  Defense
  - Chaos Cowl
    Shock:Max Element: High
        Reserved: Ipipex (Completed)
  - Perfect Mask of Seerus
    Freeze:Max
        Reserved: Cryptian (Completed)
  - Shadowsun Stetson
    Curse:High
        Reserved: Stellar-Chef (Completed)

  - Chaos Cloak
    Normal: Med
        
  - Sacred Firefly Shade Armor
    Fire:High
        
  - Shadowsun Slicker
    Curse:High
        
  - Justifier Jacket
    Stun: High
        

  - Dragon Scale Shield
    Shadow:Max
        Forgot who I sold this to.
        
  - Swiftstrike
    Clean
        
  - Final Gasp / Owlite Shield
    Shadow:M Elemental:L
        Reserved: Teddysmacker (Completed)
  - Cool Node Slime Wall
    Shadow:H Elemental:M
        Reserved: Dragon-Mecha (Completed)

Red-Galaxy's picture
Red-Galaxy
bump

heh heh heh heh heh

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
Update

[Redacted]

Hershey-Kiss's picture
Hershey-Kiss
buamp

buamp

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
Updates

[Redacted]

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
Giveaway Posts

Check back on this thread if you're trying to reserve something, I will get back to you as soon as possible.

Please note that I will reject a LOT of reservations purely because people haven't followed the instructions or they already have the item (like for instance, a lot of people who already own blitz needles are trying to get the spiral soaker they don't need).

Iessthan

So generous tho ;o;

Interested in the 4* Riftlocker. Inventory screenshot here.

IGN is ieast. If you could keep it at 4* for the lower unbind, that'd be great. Thanks for doing this :o

EDIT: Completely missed the Winter Grave o.o Would like to switch to that if it's alright?

EDIT2: Thanks so much! All the best with moving and uni :o

Falkens
Spiral soaker
Spirpo's picture
Spirpo
https://plus.google.com/u/2/1

link l8r:

i want to reserve the spiral soaker, ty

Spirpo's picture
Spirpo
nothing...

---------

Gradiosive-Cate's picture
Gradiosive-Cate
I'm interested in Spiral Soaker

Hellow
Inventory link: http://imgur.com/vLnhqH3

Thanks.

[Edit] Sorry for the slightly confusion. It seems like forum name does not update correctly.
now it does. ( previous name: grade-dddco )
[Edit] Sure. i will update with a bigger solution screen.
Inventory link (2): http://imgur.com/NkwBqpx

Shady-The-Cosmic
(empty)

(empty)

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
Giveaway response 1

Lessthan: Cool beans, I look forward to seeing your screenshot (imgur is real easy to use, try it). My riftlocker happens to be 4*lvl10, in case you want me to bring it to the 5* version and pay slightly more for unbind.

Falkens: Rejecting your soaker reservation, you already have a blitz needle.

Dragontyo: You already have a blitz needle >:/

Skuld-Norn / Grade: Look forward to it ^_^
UPDATE: Screenshot the other half of your gun selection and you can have it ^_^

Ql-Shady: Can you use imgur.com to upload it? Facebook isn't working for me.
EDIT:Ignored for spamming me in-game.

Hazardous-Anomaly's picture
Hazardous-Anomaly
Shadow sun setson

I'd like the hat please!

http://i.imgur.com/CbIBkpQ.jpg

Zee-Lander
Mixmaster!
Thebronzemonsta
Teddy so lucky

Teddy so lucky, can I reserve acheron, im restarting the game http://imgur.com/wRGp4po

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
Reservations 2

Stellar-Chef: Thanks for the prompt response! I'd love to give it to you, please get back to me in-game (ignore my auto response - LOL)

Fn-Keleige: The Mixmaster is reserved, reserve something you don't own :3
EDIT:Ignored for spamming me in-game.

Angel-Xy: Follow the format and re-apply.

Spirpo's picture
Spirpo
iar

im retarted, dont look here

Spirpo's picture
Spirpo
fml

screw me

Spirpo's picture
Spirpo
fml

fml..sorry i cant delete this comment. no spam

Spirpo's picture
Spirpo
@skuld-norm

wait but wut ur name changed...it looks like ur using an alt acc for the screenshot ._.

Spirpo's picture
Spirpo
would like the winter grave

would like the winter grave if possible and the slime wall

link: https://plus.google.com/u/2/100385833380670930450/posts/iyPZDEGZexi?pid=...

Forever-Envious
Electron vortex/Jack Froster

Even though I have a shivermist, can I still get the froster? I've always wanted one :/ Don't know if my word is worth anything but there you have it. xD

Inventory: http://prntscr.com/6x2jdq

Zee-Lander
Well What about the Acheron?!

Well
What about the Acheron?!

Zee-Lander
Well What about the Acheron?!

Well
What about the Acheron?!

Zee-Lander
Well What about the Acheron?!

Well
What about the Acheron?!

Zee-Lander
Well What about the Acheron?!

Well
What about the Acheron?!

Spirple
hey i would like the soaker.

hey i would like the soaker. im a nub but i heard it good
im willing to pay money for 4kE

link:https://plus.google.com/u/0/110196382554780960088/posts/Y32FDvEqRXN?pid=6140732054561195746&oid=110196382554780960088

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
Ignoring the spammers (won't

Ignoring the spammers (won't tolerate that).

Forever-Envious: It's cool, I'll get one for you because we run deep #Thuglife #Straightouttacompton #Mahbro

Thebronzemonsta
Hey i put a link, im not a

Hey i put a link, im not a spammer.

Spirple
thanks, im grinding for 5*

thanks, im grinding for 5* and I expect to be at it by saturday or so. mayeb even friday :)

i hope i can get that soaker

Spirple
oh btw pls check the link out

oh btw pls check the link out quick..i dont want my friend seing i play this game

Hershey-Kiss's picture
Hershey-Kiss
U selling to tcw members?

U selling to tcw members?

Teddysmacker's picture
Teddysmacker
._.

I knew you were quitting, but it really saddens me see this. It practically eliminates a lot of chance that you'd come back.
Appreciate the items reserved for me. I'll definitely use them all. Especially that mixmaster in LD, huehuehue.
But I'm kind of disappointed in OOO for not releasing any real content or stuff to do recently. Just promos and promos. If they did, they probably would've kept you around longer. As a F2P player, it does bore me a little as well. I'll talk to you some more later.

Cinwahs
Electron Vortex

Hello tamer :D Its Forever-Envious bf id like that electron vortex
http://prntscr.com/6x33qc

Cheshireccat's picture
Cheshireccat
Final Gasp

This is a nice thing to do as a way to leave the game. :)

I'd love a Final Gasp (in case you haven't noticed, I am a bit of a shield nut :P ) but couldn't justify the crazy prices for one.
If Teddy falls through I'd love to take yours. :)
http://i.imgur.com/mhjUyaT.png

--Chesh

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
Cinwahs: Enjoy your electron

Cinwahs: Enjoy your electron vortex CTR:M. Thanks! ^_^

Cheshire: I'll let you know if it falls through.

Youwantcookies's picture
Youwantcookies
Acheron Please

May I please have that Acheron? :P

http://imgur.com/HLMxe0n

Ragga-Prince's picture
Ragga-Prince
InventoryI would like the

Inventory

I would like the Polaris. Hopefully you can oblige as I am not reselling this.

Other Inventory...*dies*

Aandy's picture
Aandy
Polaris!

http://imgur.com/taGCkBh

Don't sell it to ragga, he'll vendor it like everything else >.>

Ragga-Prince's picture
Ragga-Prince
...

RUDE...and...RUDE...I posted first, and theres one person ahead of me, so get in line!

Troubling
Soaker :C

http://imgur.com/4IPkTkw

I'd like the Soaker, and I'm not a merch nor do I make trades for profit (rather to get items I want)

Dragon-Mecha's picture
Dragon-Mecha
That Cool Node Slime Wall :o

That Slime wall looks so beautiful! I would love it to complete my outfit, and of course beat up some Lumbers. :D

My inventory:
https://i.imgur.com/8xZRCgl.jpg

Biggymoore's picture
Biggymoore
Yo

I'd like to reserve the ASI VH Acheron

Spirpo's picture
Spirpo
); am i ignored? ): i wanted

); am i ignored? ): i wanted the slime wall and the winter grave, and i dont think i spammed...if im ignored, at least tell me.

Beartamer's picture
Beartamer
Aandy & Ragga: We all know

Aandy & Ragga: We all know each other so I think a decision will be made on Friday, be nice xD

Troubling: Can you screenshot all of your gun inventory?

Dragon: That would be totally awesome, message me in-game.

Biggy: Take a screenshot like the instructions say :|

Thebronzemonsta
Guyss... I already reserved

Guyss... I already reserved acheron before any of u... and biggy u didnt even post a screenshot

Post number 17 is the first to reserve.

Cryptian's picture
Cryptian
I like the Seerus mask

Screenshot

Ignore the cut top; for some reason I was lagging really hard and the screenshot took the title screen? O_o

I would like the Seerus mask a lot. If I don't get it, I'd like to take the chance to thank you anyway for giving away such expensive gear for free and good luck to you in the future!

Nevov
ASI low Ctr Med Spiral Soaker