> does forging at level 2, consists of 70% and 80%'s
> uses radiant and shining fire crystals
> 7 failed out of 9 times
> blackhawk can't get past level 7
> no more crystals
gg sega
Gee I sure am lucky
Fri, 05/01/2015 - 17:44
Fri, 05/01/2015 - 18:25
#2
...
That's the reason I rage-quit on game involving "chances". I always pick 100% success chance even with expensive cost. Computer just can't be fair on generating random number.
Fri, 05/01/2015 - 18:31
#3
Have you sacrificed a virgin to the RNG gods this month? They get picky when you forget tributes.
Sat, 05/02/2015 - 17:06
#4
more data
You might want to check out the forge data thread in Wiki Editors. It can give you our best idea on what the chances actually are.
Sat, 05/02/2015 - 18:02
#5
↓
@Bopp
Thanks to your comment I added this sheet to show the measured failure rates within the data.
@The data
There's less than 20 datapoints for each star/level, so the averages aren't that good.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 01:58
#6
@Lunarias
I cry a little for this player base every time a player defends the forge.
Makes me lose faith in humanity in general.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 08:33
#8
The fact that there people
The fact that there people that defend the forge is roughly equal to people defending cancer.
It has no reason to exist and all (its not even a lifeform like hiv), it serves no good purpose, and all it does is hinder people who have to suffer from it.
The only reason the forge got added is because OOO couldn't come up with a better timesink that mist.
The difference is with mist you didn't have to nolife the game to craft.
I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt and attribute that to Stockholm syndrome.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 08:41
#9
I'm still missing the post where someone defended the forge.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 10:14
#10
@Ellthan. ^ is what I was saying
"I cry a little for this player base every time a player defends the forge.
Makes me lose faith in humanity in general." -Ellthan-Cosmolion.
"The fact that there people that defend the forge is roughly equal to people defending cancer.
It has no reason to exist and all (its not even a lifeform like hiv), it serves no good purpose, and all it does is hinder people who have to suffer from it.
The only reason the forge got added is because OOO couldn't come up with a better timesink that mist.
The difference is with mist you didn't have to nolife the game to craft.
I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt and attribute that to Stockholm syndrome." -Ellthan-Cosmolion.
In case you try to edit your posts :)
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 12:46
#11
↓
Lets not forget Ellthan-Cosmolion somehow manages to get 1/4 the expected crown payout for full arcade runs (4000-5000 instead of 21k) and complains about that.
I suggest you guys stop feeding the troll.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 18:49
#12
The real issue isn't about
The real issue isn't about consenting to assume the risk of failure.
It's about what are the odds of the risk being what it claims to be.
Anyone who's studied statistics knows there's something called "binomial distributions" which deal with this.
There comes a point when if you fail so many times, you're inclined to believe, "Yea right. Those odds can't be true."
Technically, it's possible for random failure to happen so many times, but the odds become slim.
In statistics, we call that the "level of significance". There's nothing in nature that tells you when to call it quits. We just arbitrarily plug it in according to risk tolerance which is a personal judgment.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 18:56
#13
In any case, some people
In any case, some people actually believe selling this type of odds should be illegal.
The fact is there's no way to prove that the odds are what they are beyond all shadow of a doubt without revealing the inner workings of the system, and if you do that with an honest system, then you expose the system to getting rigged.
On the other hand, if you advertise products like this into the public sphere, then you influence society to buy what you're selling. Those who don't buy it fall behind socially, so you have to buy it unless you want to become an outcast.
Therefore, to prevent shady risk taking behavior, society ought to just illegalize it altogether.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 19:17
#15
Yeah, apparently by making a humorous informative post on RNG, you've somehow defended all systems that use it.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 20:56
#16
↓
@Nolidor
"The real issue isn't about consenting to assume the risk of failure.
It's about what are the odds of the risk being what it claims to be.
Anyone who's studied statistics knows there's something called "binomial distributions" which deal with this."
Binomial distributions are about "how many attempts am I expected to have to do until I succeed once". It in no way deals with confirming the odds are what they are being advertised as. That would be the statistic method of hypothesis testing.
"The fact is there's no way to prove that the odds are what they are beyond all shadow of a doubt without revealing the inner workings of the system, and if you do that with an honest system, then you expose the system to getting rigged."
Except that isnt the situation. OOO states the rates. Statistics can be used as a tool (hypothesis testing) to check the rates (tutorial on how). In fact, there is even the entire use of sigma-certainty to judge how good the use of statistics is in this case.
Sun, 05/03/2015 - 21:26
#17
The point of binomial
The point of binomial distributions is it shows the likelihood of a number of events happening after so many attempts.
The OP's binomial distribution would have n = 9, p = .7, and x = 2
(You can punch the numbers in here for a quick binomial calculation: http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx )
As you can see, the odds of that happening are remarkably slim.
Therefore, the OP is very likely to believe the published odds are false. OOO will seem to be a liar that's hiding behind the excuse of "anything's possible" from his perspective.
Mon, 05/04/2015 - 04:44
#18
@Skepticraven
So, I'm a troll for not making a lot of money?
[No personal attacks please]
Mon, 05/04/2015 - 05:45
#19
↓
@Nolidor
Everything seems fine and dandy until this statement:
"Therefore, the OP is very likely to believe the published odds are false."
Hypothesis testing is the test from statistics used to argue if the published odds are false. You explained what a binomial distribution is, while I am explaining why it is the wrong statistic to use to draw that conclusion.
@Ellthan-Cosmolion
Ad hominems are characteristic of trolls. You support my claim.
Mon, 05/04/2015 - 06:08
#20
i dont like science or math
i dont like science or math terms, espexialy trigonometry
Mon, 05/04/2015 - 06:33
#21
@Skepticraven
Aren't you abusing Ad hominem by calling me a troll for not making enough money then?
Or are you willing to overlook that because its you that's saying it and you're not willing to let things like hypocrisy get in the way of your fun?
Mon, 05/04/2015 - 07:53
#22
no valid statistics here
Statistics exists to extract information from data that contain random "noise" or uncertainty. One can use tools of statistics to evaluate whether Three Rings' stated forging chances are consistent with observations. Yes, the binomial distribution is highly relevant. But to do any of this you need a carefully collected data set.
The original poster's remarks do not constitute a legitimate data set, because he undoubtedly chose to report them *after* noticing that they were unusual. In any randomized phenomenon such as forging, there will sometimes be rare occurrences. You can't study the phenomenon just through the rare occurrences. You need *all* of the occurrences, most of which are boring and hence would never be reported in a thread like this.
In contrast, the Wiki Editors thread on forging chances tries to collect data systematically, including the boring data. It has some hope of teasing out the real chances. But we need more data. And we cannot even include the data here, because they are tainted by observation bias already.
Mon, 05/04/2015 - 11:29
#23
The chances are a lie used to
The chances are a lie used to stimulate spending, actually i bet the option for least crystals has a higher chance than the mid option.
Mon, 05/04/2015 - 13:25
#24
The RNG is used to produce a number between 1 and 100. Chances are distributed based on if-elses. Pseudocode would look like-
r = randomNum(100);
if (35% chance selected) {
if (r <= 35) forge successful;
else forge fails;
}
else if (65% chance selected) {
if (r <= 65) forge successful;
else forge fails;
}
else if (100% chance selected) {
forge successful;
}
OOO has no reason to lie about the odds. If it seems like you are always failing at the forge, maybe you should use 100%. The RNG can be cruel at times. Please don't tinfoil-hat ^
Mon, 05/04/2015 - 18:31
#25
>OOO has no reason to lie
>OOO has no reason to lie about the odds
Sure they do. I'm not saying they ARE lying about the odds (I doubt they are), but they absolutely have a reason to.
Lower odds on the first two options means more people take the third, which means they use up far more crystals which makes them more likely to buy them with energy which means 000 gets more money.
Sun, 09/06/2015 - 21:19
#26
False advertising is against the law. As a small team of developers, OOO has a lot to lose if their published odds aren't accurate. They don't manipulate forging chances.
Wonder if anyone will mention this edit now that I've linked to this thread
Tue, 05/05/2015 - 07:06
#27
Clarification
The chances for success on the forge screen are accurate and not manipulated or falsified in order to get you to spend more.
Tue, 05/05/2015 - 07:10
#28
Prices
The prices are obnoxiously high, really.. 9K crowns for 100 energy? Is someone actually expecting to run 10/24 to get a hold of at least 1000 ce per day? Well the prices could be reduced, in order to reduce the drop out on the runs. So the inflation won't rise anymore.
My opinion is: That ce prices should have its own standard price. So everyone can enjoy it.
Tue, 05/05/2015 - 07:10
#29
Correction
^ Almost everyone can afford it
Tue, 05/05/2015 - 07:25
#30
energy prices
Energy prices are set by the players, not by Three Rings (although Three Rings sets the rules under which the market operates).
Tue, 05/05/2015 - 09:23
#31
Even under the old prices I'd expect it would take a lot of time if you wanted 1000 ce/day by only grinding.
Tue, 05/05/2015 - 09:45
#32
@Aphrodite
That does makes me wonder about the chances of success for everything else.
Tue, 05/05/2015 - 10:10
#33
↓
@Melonfish
I find it likely that the changes for other things such as forge prize boxes arent as straightforward.
Tue, 05/05/2015 - 11:34
#34
This thread isn't about energy prices folks.
Wed, 05/06/2015 - 05:52
#35
>Mountain of Faith stage 4
>Aya
>Illusionary Dominance
>Dies three times to it, bombs a couple more
>cries because rng
>proceeds to fail 1cc
>goes on forum that isn't about touhou
>whines about it
> fail at forging
> knew the entire time only the 100% was guaranteed
> gets angry that the RNG did not favor him
> asks RNG lord for forgiveness
> RNG denies
> blames sega
> makes thread about it