so basically I just crafted 30 times in a row and didnt get any UV, did the rate changed or I'm just suddenly became extremely unlucky?
UV Rate?
Wed, 06/22/2011 - 05:29
Wed, 06/22/2011 - 06:25
#2
It's closer to 4 out of 100
It's closer to 4 out of 100 if my rusty statistics is correct. (0.9^30)
Wed, 06/22/2011 - 06:32
#3
It came out to a probability
It came out to a probability of 0.04239, which comes out to 1-in-23.59 odds (just get the reciprocal of 0.04239). I rounded that to the nearest integer for clarity.
Those odds are low, but certainly not low enough for this to be considered a freak occurrence.
Wed, 06/22/2011 - 06:35
#4
Oh right derp. Time to go to
Oh right derp. Time to go to bed lol
Wed, 06/22/2011 - 07:22
#5
I always thought the UV
I always thought the UV crafting rate was more like 20% or so, but that's purely personal experience and shouldn't be relied on (sample size of about 60)
Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:29
#6
Seems like I'm very unlucky
Seems like I'm very unlucky lately then, just needed 28 crafts before I can get 1 UV. Or I'm missing something here?
The rate of getting a UV is estimated at around 10%
The chances of 30 consecutive crafts having no UVs at all is roughly 1 in 24.
You just got unlucky this time.