Spiral Knights - Reducing Crystal Energy Market Exploitability

Reducing Crystal Energy Market Exploitability

38 replies [Last post]

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 02:13

Hikaran

For the few months I've been playing Spiral Knights, I've seen on more than one occasion deliberate attempts to increase the price of Crystal Energy on the market by a small group of players in order to inflate their hoard of Crowns and Crystal Energy. In my opinion, this is a horrible and undesirable way to play the game, as they are essentially making money off of exploitation of a limitation of game design. It also seems similar to illegal behavior in a real-life stock market--something which I believe should be discouraged. Additionally, while it is still easy to profit from doing runs in the Clockworks despite the inflation, I (and others, I'm sure) feel frustration with the reduction in profits through factors completely out of my control. I also understand that inflation is natural, but I do not believe than artificial acceleration of this natural economic process should be allowed. As such, I've tried to come up with a few solutions to the issue that may be effective without being drastic or overbearing.

From my observations, the above is accomplished through exploitation of a simple knowledge of economics and psychology. Since there are a large number of players who want to buy Crystal Energy as quickly as possible and only five proposed buy prices are shown at one time, it is possible for one to create a "price wall" in the Crystal Energy market without ever intending to buy Energy. Said price wall is usually somewhere around 6 to 10 offers deep and causes the aformentioned quick-buy players will inevitably place their offers above due to their lack of time and desire to research the correct price. A simple method to create such a wall is by blocking the small five-price window with a large amount of offers to buy at a given price surrounded by a good amount of additional offers nearby. For example, a block of 100 offers at an arbitrary price, with 5 to 10 offers apiece at two prices below and 4 above the arbitrary price is sufficient to establish this artificial wall. This method would take less than 20,000 Crystal Energy, which is a very small sum to many of the more well-off players. In short, the limited vision given by the five-price window allows players with a large amount of Crystal Energy to fool other players into buying Crystal Energy for higher prices than is actually needed.

I may be making wrong assumptions and drawing incorrect conclusions, but, from the best of my ability, the above is a good representation of what I believe is occurring. As for the potential solutions....

1) Increase the amount of buy offers visible, possibly by creating a scrolling window or even a page system like the Auction House. This would greatly increase the market knowledge that quick-buy players would have available with little to no additional time investment. It would also make it exponentially more difficult for the exploiters to create a price wall.

2) Decrease the amount of offers one player may put up on the market at any given time. Part of the reason why it is possible to create a price wall is the sheer magnitude of offers a single player may place on the Crystal Energy market. Even worse: it costs them absolutely nothing to do so. By taking away the ability to put an unrealistic amount of offers up on the stock market, this ability may be removed.

Unfortunately, these are the only two solutions I could come up with that do not unduly disrupt the game. I welcome other suggestions from other players though. :)

Thank you for your time!
Hikaran

EDIT: Suggestion from a friend

3) Impose a fee for creating a market offer--one which is refunded upon a successful transaction. By making malicious pricing behavior more risky and likely to incur loss, it may be possible to discourage players from making these price walls. Essentially, it would be like the Auction House in encouraging realistic offers while discouraging artificial price inflation (by mass buying/reselling).

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 02:54

Dumbknight

Or they could just make the

Or they could just make the vendors themselves accept less CR for CE, that should deflate it a bit.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 03:10

Hikaran

What?

There's no NPC vendors selling Crystal Energy for Crowns and you can't control player-driven pricing....

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 03:50

Eternal-Koniko

Prices

Why Not Just Make a Exact price for it, And People can only sell their energy for that much....Ex. The Standard is 5,000crowns....So everyone must sell theirs for 5,000. Kinda like an exchange, Like You buy 100 energy from A vendor for the exact price of 5000 and the energy the vendor has, is supplied by the people who sold the vendor the energy

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 03:58

Hikaran

Exact Price

No, an exact price is no good. At 5000 crowns per 100 CE, you'd just get a massive Crystal Energy shortage where people would just trade manually instead of using the market and prices would be affected adversely, since you'd have even LESS information about accurate CE prices available, so sellers could essentially charge whatever they wished.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 04:10

Tgredbaron

Fixing the Market

1) I really like the suggestion of adding pages to the market, this seems to be very useful to determine the actual state of affairs.

2) I think the idea of an offer cap is a good one ... along those lines it might also be interesting to restrict the ability to have open offers to both buy and sell at the same time which also contributes to the problem.

3) Exact price is a bad idea with the way the economy is currently setup

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 07:31

Vercingetrix

... Confused ...

I'm honestly confused with your description of the situation. If I understand at all, I think you may be viewing how the energy market works incorrectly...

I'm forgetting the exact names, but in the energy exchange menu there is the Buy CE with $$ tab, the Buy Now/Sell Now tab, and the market tab. In the market tab there is the two sides (Offers to sell, offers to buy) Those two sides of the market don't normally don't interact with each other. The standing offers in the market are (usually) completed by transactions on the Buy Now/Sell Now tab.

I've always assumed that those chunks of offers (large number of offers at the same price) were people working the market. Someone puts up a number of offers to buy energy and puts the same number of offers selling energy. They set the prices so that they make a profit from the two exchanges even with the 2% selling tax. Based on the market, the profit margin is relatively small and although you have a person making money off of these exchanges, it actually removes crowns from the economy (which in a macro view, lowers the crown cost of energy)

The thought of someone creating a "price wall" doesn't make sense to me. I don't understand how someone can benefit/profit from it. Say on the buy energy side the 5 offers are 5000,5010, 5015, 5018,5021... Say I put up 20 offers at 5050, (and then 1 at each of 5051, 5052, 5053, 5054, 5055, 5056). Once people use the "Sell Now" button on all of my offers, what have I accomplished? I've paid ~30 crowns more per transaction than I needed to. In opportunity costs, that's a loss for me. The other two side effects are 1) the people who sold energy to me made a little more money. & 2) anyone else who put up a buy offer looking to out bid me also paid more crowns per transaction. My question is: How does that help me? How is this an exploit? Do you just believe that there are trolls out there that are spending their own money just to mess with people?

Additionally, a person would have to do this a LOT to have a lasting impact on the energy economy. Are you concerned that there is inflation due to someone squandering their fortune?

Again, I may be completely misunderstanding you (I'll still admit confusion in reading your post.) so I apologize if I'm in left field on this one.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 08:23

Hikaran

@Vercingetrix

Nevermind left field, you're not even on the field!

To be clear, I have no problem with profit margin traders, as they are pretty necessary to the market and help bring it as close to equilibrium as we can get with the 2% tax in place.

My problem is with the players creating the price walls you are confused about such that the "Top Offers to Buy" column becomes inflated. This is accomplished very simply by creating a large amount of offers BELOW the top buy price in order to pressure players into thinking they have to offer a price equal to or slightly higher than the stacked price just to be able to buy Crystal Energy. The exploiting player then removes his or her offers and inches them upwards, rinsing and repeating with minimal actual sales until the buy point reaches a high enough level for the abuser to sell his or her energy at a tidy profit. If you don't believe me that this works, just watch the Crystal Energy exchange for ten minutes while someone is doing it, or try it yourself. It's very easy to manipulate people who want their Crystal Energy NOW. I really hate this kind of behavior though, so I'd rather you took my word for it instead of trying it out.

Actually, now that I think of it... The profit margin traders propagate the problem by keeping the margin steady at slightly above 2% difference, maintaining the illusion that the inflated price is the equilibrium rate. However, margin traders provide more benefit than harm, so it's not worthwhile to try to counteract them.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:02

Volebamus

Just to make sure, is this

Just to make sure, is this whole complaint about seeming price walls?

I have direct experience months ago that price walls do nothing. I had 50kce to test my theory that they did work (which I believed long ago), and saw that market forces just tore through my walls.

Mind you, I did attempt both sides. First the lower CE prices for altruist purposes, then to increase CE prices for selfish purposes. Even with my 50kce I made it budge only 500 crowns that was maintained for only a few hours.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 10:26

Vercingetrix

Ahhh... I see what you're getting at...

... HOWEVER I'm very skeptical as to how much profit this can net someone and therefore be considered an exploit. I just don't see it.

First, as a slight side note: When it comes to manipulating people who want their Energy for crowns or crowns for energy NOW (I don't know if manipulating is the right word), that is just the way the system is set up. Any time I have bought or sold energy, I use the market/offering system. I never use the Buy/Sell Now buttons because there is a loss involved just based on the system (but that's the way it is in all facets of life... overnight delivery costs waaay more than waiting a few days for example... patience is almost always money making/saving)

Back to the abusing/exploit:
Say the top offer to buy is 5200 and the lowest offer to sell is 5400. If you spend all of this work inching up the top offer to buy, wouldn't it be for naught because your ceiling is the 5400? Spend a whole lot of work inching up to sell your energy with the "sell now" button at say 5350... when you'd make more putting up an offer to sell at 5400 and just being a little patient?

As for the ceiling, I don't go to look at the market often, but I've never seen the top offer to buy higher than the lowest offer to sell so I'm assuming that when they cross, the offer market automatically has interaction.

You've obviously watched the market more than I have, but I really doubt that this practice is a "broken" way to make a ton of crowns. Additionally, I doubt that such a practice is causing energy price inflation as you implied in the OP. Do you honestly think that counteracting this practice will lower the CR per CE exchange rate?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:42

#10

Hikaran

Responses

@Volebamus You weren't doing it correctly then. The idea is to create the wall far enough below the current buying prices that nobody will actually buy your CE, but close enough to the top offers to be visible and cause offers to occur above it. It takes a lot of time, effort, and research to do so properly.

@Vercingetrix The lowest offer to sell barrier actually doesn't matter, since if you construct the wall successfully long enough, the price margin traders will increase the margin back to the 2% it was if it went below it. There's no limit to the ceiling on the price, and once you've manifactured a price long enough for everyone to believe in it, you can sell it to people nearby the Auction House for that price to avoid the tax.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 18:21

#11

Volebamus

Do you honestly think I

Do you honestly think I didn't? That strategy you outlined in your first post is the very same thing discussed half a year ago. I effectively had twice the moving power as you stated, creating even 2 100+ block offers, with even a few 20+ blocks thrown in. Yet the market went right through it, and re-regulated in a few hours.

I see that whoever says these type of topics are relatively new at this game, and haven't participated in the past discussions. These walls don't do anything, because the amount of CE you could muster up is a drop compared to the population you're going against. What you also fail to understand is that there is a fraction yet large amount of people who possess 20k+ and even 50k+ CE, as like myself they have been playing for months and have taken advantage of large and profitable market shifts. This amount of CE isn't at all special or uncommon anymore, especially given how transactions of tens of thousands of CE are commonplace everyday in the Bazaar forums.

Do you honestly think that if this was happening, the dozens and possibly hundreds of people who have this amount of CE power wouldn't make the market incredibly unstable as a result?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 20:53

#12

Hikaran

@Volebamus

I'm not insulting your intelligence, so there's no need to get uppity and defensive. I also do not appreciate the thinly veiled ad hominem attack intimating that I'm not a credible source simply because I haven't necessarily played as long as some others, but I'm not about to create a scene over it. I will make no further reference to it from here on.

If I'm reading correctly, part of the issue present in your attempt to move the market was that you actually allowed your Crystal Energy to be sold. The people who are exploiting the market effectively will remove and reposition the price wall if it comes under threat.

I am also well aware many people have the amount of CE I mentioned. However, I guess I wasn't clear in that I meant the players perpetrating this regarded this seemingly huge (to newer players) amount of Crystal Energy as a drop in the bucket. There is literally next to no risk for them trying to move the market, as the amount of CE they are putting up is a very small portion of their bankroll. To clarify, though, my point of view is a little influenced by rumors I've heard that this effect the the result of a collective of players at work (regardless of whether or not they are actually working together).

Additionally, the image of going against the large amount of people with 50k+ CE seems like a mirage to me. A normal, rational person is not going to try to devalue their own property, especially not if they have a lot of it. Instead, these people are more likely to stand by and let the inflation happen, as it actually benefits them by increasing their net worth in terms of crowns.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 21:32

#13

Vercingetrix

Yeah, you're way off...

You're claiming that a single person can inch the line one way or the other and that constant margin trading will take care of the other side of the market.

I don't buy it. There is too much constant trading going on for one person (or a small group) to pull this off and keep the market moving in the direction they want. How else do you explain global events shifting the market? Power surge weekends raise the price because people are making more crowns per CE and buying CE to run the clockworks more than usual. Rose Regalia causes a higher than normal influx of CE from $$ purchases, hence the price of CE goes down. Today there was a run on CE due to the search for keys and the price went up a few hundred.

Events causing these shifts in price show how quickly the market adjusts itself. One person can't change that with price walls. A pebble can't divert a river, even a really big pebble.

If price walling causes a consistent increase in CRperCE and there is accelerated inflation happening, how exactly do you explain the 1k drop over night during the rose regalia event?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 21:47

#14

Volebamus

@Hikaran I've just seen this

@Hikaran

I've just seen this claim too often, by people who think they know what they're talking about, and after the 5th month or so it starts getting old. Summary is that this had been talked about before, people have tested it themselves, and it never happened.

Like I said, if it's so easy to make crowns and make a profit this way, why don't we see big shifts in CE prices everyday? Also, doesn't it seem odd that the very idea of a wall that needs to be repositioned already question the very strength of the technique in the first place? Then what is the point of a wall that does nothing?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 22:14

#15

Hikaran

Responses

@Vercingetrix I'm not denying that global events affect the market, but the current spread of 6100 to 6300 was already in existence on Monday, well before the "run on CE" that you claim is affecting it. In fact, I haven't seen prices rise AT ALL since this morning when I logged on and saw the update. A lot of my prejudice, if you want to call it that, comes from the fact that the market seems to shift upwards at random times long, long after major shifters should've changed it, which only leaves one possible explanation in my mind: deliberate attempts to shift the price upward.

@Volebamus I'm not saying I know what I'm talking about any more than you. I'm merely expressing what I see from my observations. In essence, I'm trying to portray the truth I see laid out before me. If you see a different truth, that's fine with me, but there's no need to invade my topic and turn it into a hostile environment non-conducive to productive discussion. The majority of it really has become me clarifying my positions instead of people providing helpful discussions. You've basically turned it into another butthurt general discussion topic.

Also, it's not AS easy as I portray to make the shifts I've been talking about. I'm exaggerating a bit, but you can realistically shift the price upwards 100-200 Crowns per 100 Crystal Energy each week, and it adds up.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 22:33

#16

Volebamus

I'm not alone in what I

I'm not alone in what I claim, and anyone else who had failed doing so knows that walls don't work the hard way. I'm basically saying that this theory has already been tested, and already proven wrong. That's essentially it. Nothing involving being "butthurt" about it, and nothing new said here that wasn't already said.

Also, those type of meager shifts still aren't realistic, nor really worth it at that point. If anything all it does is speeds up the natural inflation process that occurs after every month when whatever big update that increases the value of crowns no longer grabs people's attentions enough. When it ends up being more profitable to run in clockworks and craft-sell, the method ends up being worthless. Especially since everyone else sitting on a ton of CE ends up getting that same advantage, without the effort.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 05:19

#17

Hikaran

That's the whole point I'm trying to make!

That what these people are doing is greatly accelerating inflation!

There's absolutely no reason that CE prices can be steady at 5800-6000 crowns for a long period of time, and then suddenly jump to 6100-6300 crowns in a single day, with no update provided. That's what happened on Monday.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 05:45

#18

Volebamus

I don't recall it being so

I don't recall it being so high Monday actually, I recall those prices after the Shadow Key news. Around Monday I remember personally seeing 6000-6100 myself, but a price shift of 200-300 crown is not uncommon when dealing with differences between peak and off-peak times.

However, the current prices are 6000-6150 as of now it seems.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 06:20

#19

Vercingetrix

You said yourself that you

You said yourself that you can "realistically shift the price upwards 100-200 Crowns per 100 Crystal Energy each week."

A one day shift of 300 crowns is definitely not one person inching the market. Something occured that caused that jump. I don't necessarily know what, but then I was barely on over the weekend and Monday (just jumped on to craft with my ME)

I definitely think you're making more out of this particular method than is there. As Volebamus said, it isn't worth it to do this method. I can't see any reason someone is going to keep at it and constantly push for a relatively meager profit.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 06:51

#20

Hikaran

Falling prices

The fact that Crystal Energy prices have suddenly fallen back down to more reasonable prices around 6000 only proves to me further that someone (or some people) are playing around with the market. You'd be surprised how asinine people are about a 100-200 crown difference in Crystal Energy prices, and how willing they are to trade in volume to make profit off of it. It's really a 400-500 crown difference though, since they'll sell at the peak sell price at 6300 and buy at the valley buy price at 5800.

The artificial inflation is also not helped by the fact that it costs Market sellers 2% of their profit, but buyers don't lose any of their energy to the tax; it's harder and much more risky to try to knock down prices than it is to drive them up.

Also, a 300 crown jump is fairly significant, and it was long after the Accessory update as well as a few days before the current update. The weekend was over, so less people are playing or trying to buy Crystal Energy. If anything, prices should have fallen a bit, but they rose instead. No reasonable explanation I can see besides people messing with the market.

Actually, the biggest misunderstanding you two may have about my views is that when I'm talking about a large rise in prices, it's really only 12.5% inflation. My belief is that in a completely knowledgeable market, equilibrium prices for CE would be somewhere between 5300-5700, while they've been knocked all the way up to 6100-6300 lately. I may be making a bigger deal out of it than it is to you guys, but to me this 1000 crown spread is ridiculous and undesirable. I don't believe I should be paying 100 crowns more per level (10 crowns*10 energy) just because somebody wants to control the market for their own profit.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 07:34

#21

Vercingetrix

... And I'm saying that one

... And I'm saying that one person or a small group of people are not causing that 12.5% change.

The biggest factors in what sets the market price are things that none of us know:
1) How much CE is entering the game due to $$ purchases
2) How much of that CE is entering the market to be sold
3) How much bought CE is being consumed at any given time

We can logically interpret the effect of events on the market. (Rose reglia increases the CE in the game and market, prices go down; power surge weekends increase the profitability of all runs so consumption goes up, prices go up)

But we don't know the basic data, so how can you know that an equilibrium sits at 5300-5700? Since iron lockboxes came out, there has been an additional avenue for spending CE so I believe that pay players are putting less energy into the market. Price spiked right after the boxes came out, but it never settled back to where it was before.

I've lurked enough on these forums to see plenty of people say what volebamus said... "Yeah, I thought it would work so I tried it... it doesn't work."

- Trying to manipulate the market doesn't work.
- Margin Trading can work but the profit margin is very small.
- The only real way to make money from the market is the classic stock buy low / sell high based on market conditions. Someone in a thread a while back said they make tons of money from the market, but they have to be patient. When a crown sink is introduced or there is a rose regalia event, he spends every cent he has on CE. Then he waits for a power surge weekend and sells for major profit.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 07:54

#22

Hikaran

Event effects

Event effects do provide a major effect. I'm not discounting those. What I'm talking about is what you mentioned afterward: Prices do not settle down long after the event effects in question have been around long enough to no longer matter. People get excited (usually, not so much with this current one XD) about updates and provide a immediate shift to the market. Afterwards, however, the market drifts back towards where it was. What I'm angry about and where logic fails to explain things occurs when people try to block this natural drift by forcing Crystal Energy prices to remain where they are until the new prices are accepted as the norm. I've seen this happen multiple times after a Power Surge where prices have risen 200-300 Crowns higher than they were directly following the Power Surge and remained there well over a week past power surge.

The main reason I'm citing 5300-5700 as an equilibrium is that most players who aren't going off the current market price of 60 C/CE (Crowns per Crystal Energy) are asking to buy it at 55 C/CE or less in trade chat. You could say that they're being cheap and undercutting, but I see it as more of an indication of where people really want to buy CE.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 08:13

#23

Vercingetrix

I would contend that just

I would contend that just because it wavers off after the initial excitement does not mean that people only bought silver keys for the first few days after the release of the boxes. In this instance, I think the market stayed higher because after the initial excitement, the price for iron lockboxes dropped very low on the AH. People with the means saw that as an opportunity and I think there has been a steady trickle of key buying since then. That would be enough to keep the CE value in-market slightly higher.

As for trade chat, anyone who offers to buy CE is going to undercut the market because if they were looking to buy market prices, they would go to the market. If the market price was at 5500, they would be offering 50 Cr/CE in trade chat. (It benefits the seller rather than the buyer to do transactions directly from knight to knight because they can avoid the 2% tax which is why many sellers offer closer to the market price and usually not above.)

In an MMO, a single person or small group can influence a small commodities market (I used to do it back when I played WOW), but it has to be a subsection that has movement, but not crushing movement. In SK, you could do this at the AH. But energy is integral to every part of the game for everyone. That's a fast flowing market that one person is not going to be able to influence successfully, especially not long term.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 09:44

#24

Hikaran

@Vercingtrex

Of course there's going to be some events like the one you mention where the price remains higher for a prolonged period of time. My main argument is against the maintenance of inflated prices and creation of price spikes for which there is no reasonable explanation related to major patches, sales, or events.

Like I said, I do recognize that there are people who will always undercut the market, but from my (possibly biased) point of view, more offers than not are attempting to do so; I see a noticeably greater percentage and frequency of "undercutting" offers now than I saw at even 5700-5900 crowns.

As for influencing the SK CE market, I'm not saying that this hypothetical group of players is doing it on their own. Rather, they are playing with the inelasticity of the demand curve for the majority of players to increase the price in the short term. In other words, they're using other players as an amplification of their own efforts.

EDIT: I really want to express my apologies to everyone, as these two players and I have turned this suggestion topic into another heated General Discussion topic that really serves no purpose. There are no productive ideas or suggestions coming of it, and I am sorry I feel I had to defend my position, but it's tough not to say anything when someone comes into your topic and accuses you of being wrong from the start.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:02

#25

Volebamus

In short, you are wrong

In short, you are wrong unless you could prove otherwise, sorry. I've already said that in regards to this theory, it has already been tested. Many times in fact. You are repeating disproven claims. That actually needs evidence to back it up.

Suggestions you post aren't something Three Rings will even consider unless it really gets out of hand that the developers will accept that not even natural market forces can account for any changes in CE prices. Again, I will state that as you are relatively new (this isn't something you can disregard honestly), you and many others in this suggestion board don't realize that "fixes" such as this topic aren't even considered by OOO until it's a true problem. A big and obvious example is the arena/non-boss-looping method, that has only recently been publicly said by GMs as a punishable offense. Months ago I've even done this, and back then there was no official word either way.

Evidence shows it is not only not a problem, no GM or developer has openly said it to be one. And given how long the current system was in place where yet no official words show concern over it, the suggestions posted in this topic is effectively fruitless and non-verified.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:02

#26

Volebamus

Odd - double post.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 19:05

#27

Hikaran

Well then...

We'll just have to agree to disagree. We both have what we see as sufficient proof to support our claims, and neither of us is going to convince the other otherwise.

If you have nothing to say in the way of suggestions, I suggest you leave the topic, especially since your tone throughout has been condescending and unfair. I think I've been reasonably polite while you've shown an intolerable attitude whilst telling me, "You're absolutely wrong and here's why." However, I cannot stand any more such treatment, and will ignore any further discussion from you.

Take it as you will.

Hikaran

P.S. In the future, try not to use "Everyone's against you." arguments (I forget the actual phrase for them.) They force the opposing party on the defensive and are really quite insulting in that they suggest that the listener is wrong and stupid for not following the crowd.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 19:38

#28

Juuyon

Actually, there's an easy way

Actually, there's an easy way to lower the player-driven market... in the end it's all in the hand of Three Rings, as much as they don't want it.

As long as they keep introducing important new features that require CE (like most recently Unbinding and Silver Keys), people who don't want to spend cash will want to buy CE from the market. On the other hand, introducing new and important services that cost crowns instead, would drive people who aren't interested in crown farming to buy CE with cash and sell it on the market, thus balancing the market back towards cheaper CE.

So it's about the proper balance of provided services - and those are in the hands of Three Rings alone. I'd say making Silver Keys cost CE instead of crowns is what's driving the energy prices up again currently.

(Of course Three Rings/SEGA has an interest in keeping the crown cost of CE high - it makes players more likely to pay for it with real money since they get more "bang for the buck". While this might be supposed to even out at levels that are mostly acceptable for both sides, it's also strongly affected by the "currency" of services as mentioned above.)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 02:40

#29

Arctic-Fern

Nitpick...

I don't like your sensationalist title. You make an intelligent post, but the title makes you seem like a CE whiner, the type of people that Voldemaus and I despise, perhaps as much as beggars. You should change that title to a nutshell of your suggestion.

I guess the CE went up for a while because of interest in shadow keys, so the example of 6k jumping to 6.3k is not so valid as an example even if there are any walls created. The price bounced back anyway.

Now in the way of ideas, no one wants to talk about CE-related ideas as (short of philanthropy and CE market manipulation) it's all in OOO's boat and we're kind of sick of attempting to suggest more crown sinks to OOO because we get CE sinks anyway.

Next the 5-offer view on the right side is actually pretty negligible since the persons you'd be catering to if you're actually using this window is to the buyers and selllers who merely use the "BUY CR NOW" or "BUY CE NOW" buttons, who only see one offer. To them, that is the market price.

As for the artificial wall not being visible 6-8 posts down the (right-hand) list, shouldn't that wall be the correct market price then if the market breaks through the lower offers and starts chipping at the wall? I mean, if people are actually willing to sell CE for less crowns than that, then this wall be even more posts down the list. There is no point removing that wall and setting it up at a lower cr rate because that defeats the profit motive.

And even if they remove that wall and move it to a higher cr/CE rate, if people are willing to buy and sell at that new rate (or sell for slightly lower than that), it means that the market works and that is the new value. Not necessarily an equilibrium but the new market price. Because if it that price really ISN'T meant to be, then moving up the wall will not affect the CE sellers who believe that they can get better results by selling at their lower, old rates.

Also, the fact that people are willing to buy energy at that rate that the wall dictates simply means that the system is working and that people are willing to pick up CE for that amount of crowns.

...and if they don't like to buy CE for that rate, they are always free to use the left-hand side postings and make an offer there.

Now, putting up a wall on the left side (buying CE) is what is keeping the cr/CE exchange rate high. But that also defeats the profit motive unless the guy bought CE at a lower rate than that. What use is a 200-offer wall of "buying CE" that would prevent everyone, including the wallmaker, from buying CE using cr... at a lower rate.

Forgive me if I'm wrong or rambling. :D

***

Regarding your ideas:
1) Increase the amount of buy offers visible, possibly by creating a scrolling window or even a page system like the Auction House.
I agree to this one, though not because I believe it would make the market better. I just want my curiosity satisfied.

2) Decrease the amount of offers one player may put up on the market at any given time.
Then it's not a free market anymore. I don't like this idea. And besides, if people are dead-set on walling, they would just create the maximum amount of offers, and re-build the wall when the current one is being destroyed. But it DOES scare off "casual" wallers. Or people who would just go to sleep after building a wall.

3) Impose a fee for creating a market offer--one which is refunded upon a successful transaction.
There's one side effect of this, it punishes people for making a typo. Granted it's far more punishing for a "wall maker" so this is a plus.

An unwanted side effect of this provision, which is a deposit and similar to the current AH system is perhaps...
1. People might add the fee to their offer, passing the fee over to the end user, the CE buyer - inflating the price of CE.
2. People might be cautious to sell CE, reducing the CE supply and also, inflating the price of CE.
2a. People will also be cautious to put up an offer to buy CE. This means less offers will be on the market, making it swing more wildly and thus easier to influence. People willing to put up walls will be even more powerful, even if moving the wall suddenly becomes less feasible.

***

Well you said:
You weren't doing it correctly then... It takes a lot of time, effort, and research to do so properly.

...and then afterwards proceed to be somewhat polite.

***

Randomly...

I dig my hole you build a wall
I dig my hole you build a wall
One day that wall is gonna fall
So build that wall and build it strong 'cause
We'll be there before too long...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 05:58

#30

Hikaran

@Arctic-Fern

Yes, you make a good point with the title. I've changed it now, so hopefully it's less sensationalist and provocative. I did write the first post in a fit of rage originally, mind you. XD

Now to address some of your comments (not the ones I agree with, for the most part =) )...

-In hindsight, the inflation from Monday I was talking about very well may have been from Shadow Keys. I think I was a little predisposed to watching any inflation above 6000 crowns and immediately labelling it as market exploitation in a fit of rage over the overall increased price equilibrium.

-As for increasing the size of the pricing window to more than 5 offers, the idea is not to affect either the "Buy Now" or "Sell Now" players, but the players putting up the "Top Offers to Buy" offers. My contention is that the artificial wall forces them to think/feel that they have to pay more Crowns for each unit of purchase than they really need to. Let me illustrate:

Say there is a hypothetical natural price wall at Price X in the "Top Offers to Buy" column. Usually, the price spread would look something like this:

X+10 (3 offers)
X+4 (12 offers)
X+3 (6 offers)
X+2 (20 offers)
X+1 (80 offers)
X (111 offers)
X-4 (5 offers)
X-5 (10 offers)
X-6 (3 offers)
X-10 (14 offers)
X-11 (4 offers)
X-12 (8 offers)

... with continuous offers in the X-minus region in blocks of 5 to 20 by people trying to game the system and hope for temporary dips in the price until the next price wall near X-50 or X-100. Skipped prices have 0 offers.

For an artificial price wall, since you only need to block a window of 5 offers, the constructor only really needs to go 3 or 4 offers deep below Price X. For example:

X+10 (9 offers)
X+5 (3 offers)
X+3 (5 offers)
X+2 (2 offers)
X+1 (13 offers)
X (84 offers)
X-1 (12 offers)
X-2 (8 offers)
X-3 (5 offers)
X-4 (3 offers)
X-38 (3 offers)
X-44 (12 offers)
X-45 (6 offers)
X-46 (20 offers)
X-47 (80 offers)
X-48 (111 offers)
X-52 (5 offers)
X-53(10 offers)
X-54 (3 offers)
X-58 (14 offers)
X-59 (4 offers)
X-60 (8 offers)

Now, assuming nobody with the means and desire to break down the price wall realizes what is happening, none of the players posting buy offers will know that there is a large gap in the offer prices beneath the price wall. As such, they'll place their offers around the artificial price wall as if it is a natural one such that it pretty much becomes one. I hope this makes sense to you. X_x

-I agree that price walls are a natural occurrence in any buy/sell market such as this due to the nonlinearity of supply and demand curves, as certain values are heavily favored, but some of the price walls I've seen are actually fakes simulating the real ones. See above example.

-The third method is indeed harsh and has the potential to inflate/unbalance the market just as you say. That's why I put it third. :P Joking aside, it would essentially just make the CE market exactly like the Auction House, which with its 10% tax and scaling posting fees doesn't really affect sellers that much unless they're posting large expensive items (correlates to large quantities of CE) like costume sets and UV-ed weapons.

-Let me know if there was something else I missed that you wanted me to address. I may have forgotten something while I was writing up that example. X.x

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:27

#31

Vercingetrix

...

- If everything goes perfect that example potentially increases profit by 48. So (5500)*.98 to (5548)*.48 would be a .8% increase in profit for the sell now button. But I've already argued that this is not a profitable method and therefore hardly an exploit.

- You said the crux of the method is to never actually buy any energy with the offers and just to push the value up, so I assume that to get to this point, you have to always put your "wall" below the highest bid amount and rely on people guaranteeing their sale to put amounts above. Then you remove and replace the wall. (Doing this will never create the 4 to 38 gap you have displayed. Additionally, it can't move very fast in my opinion.)

So anyone actually selling to any of your wall offer hurts the profit margin. So would the person who placed the wall leave the wall up when logging out? What if the supply of people posting higher buy offers dries up? What if someone uses the Sell Energy Now button 10 times in quick succession? In either instance, the wall is being assaulted and the method is drastically hurt.

-Let's put the inching aside and say you set up the gap, but still return to when you're away from the computer... If you leave the wall up, it has a chance of being assaulted by offers being resolved. So you would take the wall down when you're not there to follow the progress. So, say you have a lack of buy offers being posted or a run of Sell Now hits and the market will readjust to back down to the x-38 offer level.

So for this to work...
_you need a steady constant supply of margin traders readjusting both sides of the market so that the sell offers ceiling adjusts along with your buy offers (Your description, not mine... although another speed limiter is the lowest sell offers being cleared to help your method influence the margin traders.)
_you need a steady constant supply of people putting up buy offers and always being scared of your wall and over-bidding.
_you need no-one to press Sell Now a whole bunch of times quickly.
_you need to sit at the market 24 hours a day so that you can protect your wall and not have to take it down.

All for the profit increase that margin trading produces.

I can't really offer suggestions to "fix the problem" because I can't for the life of me see how this is a problem (especially not something that can be considered an exploit.)

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 09:45

#32

Juances

sigh...

It all reduces to just how greedy people can be.

Basically, if all sellers unite, they could charge whatever they want for energy.
Of course you would say "I won't buy energy at that price", but by doing that, you won't be able to craft past 2* stars gear. They control the market.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:37

#33

Hikaran

@Vercingtrex

Jeez, man. Do you really have nothing better to do than grief my topic? I've already told off Volebamus for continually addressing me with an attacking tone and closed mindset, and you decide to continue in exactly the same manner. Sheesh.

In any case, you're making some serious assumptions without confirming what I mean. The example is just an illustration for Arctic-Wall of how a price wall can block off vision of lower offers and create a new price wall. In actuality, the jumps in price caused by these players are often upwards of 100 crowns at a time. There's no other justification for the price of Crystal Energy rising sharply (over 100-200 crowns at a time) in less than a minute. It is also not necessary to wait for the margin traders, as they will increase the margin back to normal after the change has been made.

Secondly, the crucial technique in gleaning profit from this method lies not in clicking the "Sell Now" button, but in inflating the value of CE in general. With this, it is possible to sell pricier CE to players at the AH looking for quick trades or trade for items using less CE, as it now appears more valueable. Even if using the market itself for profit, they'd be more likely to post an offer to sell Crystal Energy, as the margin traders will have kept the gap steady.

Finally, to clarify: The continual inflation of prices is the result of the efforts of multiple people using this technique to push the price upwards. They may or may not be working together, but it does not matter which as their efforts are cumulative. By individually pushing the price upwards from 5800 to 6000+, they each profit on their own. It does not take as much time and effort as you are suggesting to temporarily boost the prices up by 100 or 200 crowns. (I'm not contradicting myself from earlier because to keep the price wall up longer than the temporary profit booster, you need to be extremely careful and spend a lot of time, just like you detail in your last post.)

I agree that it is solely up to OOO whether or not they wish to do anything, but that's why this is a SUGGESTION box. I have a right and obligation to voice my opinion, no matter how much you want to crush it.

As with Volebamus, this is the last reply I will give you if you continue to nitpick and annoy without contributing anything productive towards the topic.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:49

#34

Lionaira

tl;dr for the people with

tl;dr for the people with short attention span: Someone is making a teensy weensy profit off of people's greed.. Wow, that's not something we see every day is it? *sarcasm fully intended*

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 14:14

#35

Vercingetrix

Wow... I'm rather insulted...

You claim I'm griefing and confrontational and that I have not better to do than rag you. Go ahead, call me a troll. It's not like I'm coming on and telling you that a decimal point was misplaced or just insulting you with no debate; with no discussion. I'm involved in this topic because I think you're seeing a problem where there is none. I thought this was relatively civil discourse, but you're threatening to scold me.. really?

Did you even read my most recent post? I completely understand how the idea of a price wall works... but I was debating the feasibility of actually setting one up and maintaining it. How would one set up that gap without actually having of their own offers resolve? (as you said is the proper way to execute this method.)

"There's no other justification for the price of Crystal Energy rising sharply (over 100-200 crowns at a time) in less than a minute."
Do you mean the High buy offer or the low sell offer? If I'm using a price wall on the buy offer side to increase the low sell amount, how exactly would that change in a minute? If Buy is at 6000 and sell is at 6100. If I put a wall at 6050 on the buy side, the sell side is still at 6100 until that offer is resolved... I'm very confused by this statement and how you think price wall can affect the market in a minute. The only way the selling point of CE can go up by a large swing in a minute is by having someone resolve a bunch of the standing offers. There is no waay that simply putting a gap into the buy offers is going to cause that many offers on the sell side to adjust that quickly.

Another aspect I don't understand... if the boost is only temporary, how is this the big contributor to price inflation?

"I agree that it is solely up to OOO whether or not they wish to do anything, but that's why this is a SUGGESTION box. I have a right and obligation to voice my opinion, no matter how much you want to crush it.
As with Volebamus, this is the last reply I will give you if you continue to nitpick and annoy without contributing anything productive towards the topic."

How is it not my right and obligation to not voice a counter-opinion? You imply that I'm only posting to annoy you and to crush your topic. That I've picked you as a target. Do a search. I never post on these forums. I read them a lot, however. I had read your Original post and was confused. After you clarified, I highly disagreed with your analysis of the situation. To call something an exploit means you believe there is something wrong with the game that people are taking advantage of. I believe that this particular aspect of the game is not broken and does not need fixing. I am perfectly fine with the idea of showing all offers in a pages/scrolling system, but if it were implemented, it would not reveal these exploits because there are none to begin with.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 14:23

#36

Hikaran

@Vercingtrex

Okay I lied, /this/ will be my last response to you.

This is not General Discussion. it's Suggestions. You have nothing to suggest, save that I am wrong.

Now let's agree to disagree, and you can leave.

I'll probably let this topic rot now that it's so screwed up.

Congrats trolls.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 16:56

#37

Davtwan

A Small Consideration

I may be wrong on this, but the highest the price can go depends on the most profitable run of crowns per mist. (Currently, that's the Jelly King Run, which can net from 5.8k to 6.2k.)

If there is one thing that won't seem to nudge any buyer to go too high is to pay for a price that is impossible to get on one day in average. Your exploitation theory may be still possible though as the price does go down at night. It may explain how the price goes up during the day. They're taking advantage of the daily afternoon rush. When all the players get their CE though, the price seems to drop. Probably because there's almost no buyers left who are online.

One way that the CE price would rise is if there is a new run that gives out more crowns per mist. This could end up being troublesome if the run is harder than the JK run, which may limit new players from earning CE. I suggest the developers watch out in case such an event happens.

Also, I suggest not misusing the word "troll." It gets thrown around way too frequently these days that it has almost lost its true meaning. That's just a pet peeve I have though, so take that with a grain of salt if you must.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 05:55

#38

Volebamus

...Told me off? I just

...Told me off? I just realized you didn't, couldn't, and wouldn't supply any proof to your theory.

Others have told you that this method isn't really profitable for those who are doing it, practically a waste of time. Also, the reason CE prices eventually rise beyond 6k+ crown (again, this has been discussed before) is because it's reaching an equilibrium where diving in the clockworks is still much more profitable that doing direct CE-to-crown trades (by a large margin).

Also, many tests have proven this theory wrong, yet you can't offer any objective proof you are in any way near correct in your claims.

Just because this is a suggestions forum doesn't mean you are exempt from criticisms in your suggestion. We are pointing out that since walls don't have such a drastic effect on the market as you claim, there is no need to follow this suggestion in the first place.

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Reducing Crystal Energy Market Exploitability