I've selected about 15 lines of 3* Gears to carry through to 5*... Am I likely to see even one UV? More than one?
What are the Chances?(UVs)
Mon, 02/06/2012 - 04:26
Mon, 02/06/2012 - 05:23
#2
Seeing as the chances are
Seeing as the chances are around 10% everytime you craft and you're gonna craft 15*2 times you're likely to get some UVs. Lets say the chances of you not getting any UVs are of aprox. 4.24%.
Mon, 02/06/2012 - 14:41
#3
Wikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiw
Wikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwikiwiki
Mon, 02/06/2012 - 15:16
#4
~
Wiki only says
"there is a low chance of creating a unique variant each time that you craft a new item" ->ORLY?
"Chance of an UV on bombs seems to be around 10%"-> Ok, you could use your brain a little here and take conclusion but still..
Give him a chance. It's not so dumb like asking where's the AH.
Mon, 02/06/2012 - 18:48
#5
The wiki has very little info
The wiki has very little info pertaining to UV chances, something that I'm trying to rectify. Yes, an extensive testing done by the early players when haze bombs were just 1* determined that UVs are about 10%, but there may be different chances for star ratings or equipment types, or the percentage may have changed since then. If you'd like to participate in collecting data for UV probabilities, send me a message ingame or visit my talk page (which is empty ATM) http://wiki.spiralknights.com/User_talk:HexZyle
Mon, 02/06/2012 - 20:48
#6
*ahem*
Low: 65.74% ±
*ahem*
Low: 65.74% ± 8.95%
Medium: 21.30% ± 7.72%
High: 7.41% ± 4.94%
Very High: 5.56% ± 4.32%
Maximum!: Unknown
Taken from the wiki
Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:55
#7
@Aemicus
"Chance of an UV on bombs seems to be around 10%. Probabilities on bombs seem to be approximately as follows."
Is my point.
Fri, 02/10/2012 - 00:14
#8
Odds of a UV are
Odds of a UV are approximately 1 in 10, odds for a double and triple UV are unknown as they're rarer but I believe they're about 1:100 and 1:1,000. Those last 2 numbers are no where near solid by the way, just my estimate.
And an amendment to Aemicus's numbers. Low-High appear on all gear. Very High only appears on weapons, Ultra appears on nothing, and Max appears on Shields and Armor. A "Max" Armor/Shield UV, going by the increase given to a stat, is a level 4, the same level as a "Very High" UV on a weapon. Meaning the odds may very well be the same. Why they're named different is anybody's guess.
~Gwen
Sat, 02/11/2012 - 18:43
#9
UV odds
I agree with Gwen. Those estimates sound about right. You have to be pretty lucky to get a UV. Even if you don't get one when you craft something, you can always buy it from that bloke in Bazaar.
Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:07
#10
Some Results
I've been keeping a log of my crafting attempts for about 3 weeks now. I've mostly crafted 1* and 2* items. General results:
Crafting Attempts: 513
Total UV'ed Items: 63 (63/513 = 12.3%)
Out of all the UV'ed items, here is the Single/Double/Triple breakdown:
Single UVs: 59 (59/63 = 93.7%)
Double UVs: 4 (4/63 = 6.3%)
Triple UVs: 0
If you think about the double UVs in terms of total crafting attempts, the results are 4/513 = 0.78%
For the items with single UVs, here is the Low/Medium/High/Max breakdown:
Low: 41 (41/59 = 69.5%)
Medium: 12 (12/59 = 20.3%)
High: 4 (4/59 = 6.8%)
Very High (weapons) or Maximum (armor): 2 (2/59 = 3.4%)
I'm going to continue logging all of my crafts. I may post full results (specific items crafted, specific UVs) at some point. However, these results look similar to values other people have mentioned in this thread.
Sun, 02/12/2012 - 01:06
#11
RRound just did a study on
RRound just did a study on rolling: http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/43427
It's around 10%. But it still depends on your luck.