Spiral Knights - Study on UV rolling chances, *UPDATE* Added UV rolling chances on test server

Study on UV rolling chances, UPDATE Added UV rolling chances on test server

27 replies [Last post]

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:00

Round-Shinigami

Conclusion: want a specific UV? Buy pre-made. Want to try your luck? Roll a random UV but don't complain you got a Low. Because you will. Link to file with all roll results can be found at the bottom of this post.
Its certainly possible to get CTR VH on calibur. But sometimes it takes 134 rolls...

Test results below:

Normal server (wasted 22k ce, didn't get ASI VH or ASI High or CTR VH or CTR High), summarized rolling results can be found below:
Totals:
45x Low
15x Med
2x High
5x Very High (got lucky, I guess)

9x ASI (7x Low, 2x Med, 0x High, 0x Very High)
6x CTR (5x Low, 1x Med, 0x High, 0x Very High)
9x Beast (6x Low, 2x Med, 0x High, 1x Very High)
9x Construct (7x Low, 2x Med, 0x High, 0x Very High)
6x Fiend (2x Low, 3x Med, 0x High, 1x Very High)
8x Gremlin (6x Low, 1x Med, 1x High, 0x Very High)
9x Slime (8x Low, 0x Med, 0x High, 1x Very High)
10x Undead (3x Low, 4x Med, 1x High, 2x Very High)

Approximated chances of UV for weapon:
1/8 chance for ASI
1/8 chance for CTR
6/8 damage bonus vs monster

UV Level (regardless of "family" of UV)
67% or 2/3 - Low
22% or 2/9 - Med
3% or 1/30 - High*
7.5% of 1/13 - Very High*

* - didn't get High/Very High on ASI or CTR family of UVs, got more VH than H, probably just lucky.

Test server rolling study! Did over 200 rolls, summarized test results are below.
Irony: got ASI VH on flourish on 6-th roll.

Total: 207 rolls. Rolled on several different weapons. Aimed to get CTR VH on calibur. First VH was fiend, 60-th roll. Got CTR VH on 134-th. Other "uber" UVs: ASI VH - 6th, 7-th, 36-th; CTR VH: 24-th
Total VH: x10
ASI x3
CTR x2
Damage x5 (slime, beast, undead, fiend x2)

High: x17
-ASI x5
-CTR x2
-damage x10

Med: x41
-ASI x3
-CTR x3
-damage x35

Low: x139

Chances are:
Low - 67%
Med - 20%
High - 8%
Very High - 5%

More or less the same as I got on real server. Chances to get specific type (approx):
ASI: 14% (28)
CTR: 11% (23)
Damage - 75% (156)

Remember, current test was done on test server, actual chances on main server may be different.
XLS file with all test results on both servers (separate pages) can be downloaded here:
http://www.2shared.com/file/Vpr7Sk2Q/spiral_knights_uv_rolling.html

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 21:52

Tantarian

Yep

Actually the conclusion should be: Uv sellers underprice their items

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:37

Ranzoh

Hm, yeah, I think there is a

Hm, yeah, I think there is a phenomena that you get a really rare event early on, I forget if there is such a concept or not. Then there's the event where you get the same UV twice. I think you could've probably had an equal chance of getting Weapon bonus UVs with the Damage bonus very high level, but I could be wrong. It could be set up where Weapon bonuses like CTR or ASI are assigned a lower probability just like with rarer promo event items like certain Dragon Wings are a lot harder to get than the ones less valued ones. Heard this from Xai, but am not sure.

I've known some sellers have gotten the same UV twice with relatively little CE spent; I heard even one person had a Shadow Max UV on a shield back to back! I've gotten an auto with CTR vh(it was another er person however), and I'm hoping to get another based on that phenomena of a person winning the lottery twice(but of course that person could just have more resources to increase their trials). But I'm not banking on it, which is why I'm focusing my cr or ce on something else.

Of course, besides the level of UVs you'd have to factor in event B in the formula like the Type of UV you want and calculate its probability from there. Still, it seems that there is sometimes usually the UV you want that's available, so maybe it's different for others.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:10

Tennis

---

Maybe the conclusion should rather state: In most cases, rolling UVs is a WASTE OF MONEY! If there is a specific UV you want, it's most likely going to be cheaper to buy it from someone who has it, rather than to roll the UV yourself.

Because people DO get those incredible UVs sometimes.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 22:25

Mrgreedy

Most of the time

Yes i agree most of the time the rolls are a waste of crs. But there are those times you get 2 max rolls in a row :)
Most of the time my rolls are low, worthless and make me wonder why I ever visit punch. And most of my good uvs were crafted when upgrading my stuff.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:25

Kalmity

This has always been true for all games

Rolling is never profitable, being so would create arbitrage.

tl;dr Your conclusion doesn't tell us anything new.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:31

Culture

Yup

I'll just add to this conclusion. I tried rolling my Sealed Sword for UVs because I had a ton of CE sitting around that I wasn't using coupled with several people selling ASI VH for statistically low prices in The Bazaar (they must be making a profit on that, right?) So 23k CE later and the best ASI or CTR I received was ASI Medium ._.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 23:56

Guyinshinyarmour

@Tantarian
But then who would buy it? There's an issue where at a certain price point, no one will buy it because no one that has the money for it needs it, and those that do want it sure as hell don't have the money for it. Don't forget mist or normal crafting either; that brings in a fair few UVs on the cheap.
__________________________

Oh thank god. I was hoping someone would put together something like this while the test server was open. What we really need is to pool multiple people's resources and really get this ball rolling. Sadly I am a lone wolf and have no strings to pull to get such a thing done.

Should also run a test on if the 2/3 variant tickets are worth more or not.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:13

Tennis

---

Orrrrr...
You could be like me and just roll a UV on your SS randomly and get a rather unexpected UV.
http://i39.tinypic.com/otzscn.png

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 00:16

Round-Shinigami

Guyinshinyarmour I did some

Guyinshinyarmour
I did some testing on test server but so far it was worthless - same good old lows all the time (only rolled 5k ce or so - takes a while to make money). Decided to keep Beast High on my tempered calibur (wasn't easy to get that force dynamo).

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 02:39

#10

Guyinshinyarmour

Oh, you're telling me this list is from Punching on the main server? Impressive, in a "I can't believe you wasted all that ce" way.

And yeah, I expect Punch to turn out just as poorly in both servers. There's literally no reason to make them different in each server. Waste of time from OOO perspective. So now is the time to really suss out the numbers when Punching is basically free in the test server.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 04:34

#11

Round-Shinigami

Guyinshinyarmour Punching on

Guyinshinyarmour
Punching on test server can have different UV chances to make you believe its easy to get good gear. And the main purpose of my study was to get ASI VH toothpick, which has failed :)

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 11:01

#12

Slayzz

I'm not sure about punch...a

I'm not sure about punch...a while back, I rolled on a flourish, and got ASI VH. First try. But the other few rolls I did all were low.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 11:19

#13

Bert-Banana

I have rolled several very

I have rolled several very high variants on several weapons and armor, as much as I think this test was a good idea, everyone's luck is different. Yes obviously the chances of getting a very high Ctr ss is very rare, it can happen. I rolled on a snarbolax set and got poison Max and elemental medium but I was expecting curse low and shock low.

I would almost say UV rolling is psychological because I sometimes hope for the worst and get the best. I rolled a high max max wolver and I was hoping for a low low medium. (I have no clue where the coat is now sadly.) I thank you shinigami for this test because I know I wouldn't use all my ce on rolling on a Flourish, that's what AH is for ;)

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 11:21

#14

Encross

UV Level (regardless of

Approximated chances of UV for weapon:
1/8 chance for ASI
1/8 chance for CTR
6/8 damage bonus vs monster

What a surprise...?

UV Level (regardless of "family" of UV)
67% or 2/3 - Low
22% or 2/9 - Med
3% or 1/30 - High*
7.5% of 1/13 - Very High*

LOL NO. And frankly that makes me question the validity of the entire study.

tl;dr needs moar data to be statistically significant
tl;dr of tl;dr feels good to be a hipster.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 12:32

#15

Tengu

First roll on my Acheron

First roll on my Acheron garnered ASI high.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 21:21

#16

Round-Shinigami

Tengu When a post is too

Tengu
When a post is too long, make sure you read the beginning and the end. Quoting myself:
I'd need to waste $1000 ... to get a clear picture of UV chances (one that would be statistically correct, at least 1000 rolls).

After playing around with test server's triple UV rolls (I'd say... 30 million crowns? 500k ce, 130 rolls, approx., didn't count) I got:
ASI VH + CTR Low + Undead Low on Autogun
CTR VH + damage low + damage low on Tempered Calibur
Such a huge amount spent because I was doing triple rolls. Wanna play around with UV chances? Get into the test server while Dragon Wings are still on sale - you might hit jackpot with shadow wings.

Changed my conclusion slightly.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 22:04

#17

Tengu

I wasn't here to refute your

I wasn't here to refute your in-depth study. I was just bragging. I actually skimmed the whole thing.

you've got bad luck.

but hey...you've got the work ethic to grind that pile out.

Sun, 02/12/2012 - 22:40

#18

Culture

Hmm

Actually Round-Shinigami is pretty lucky to get so many chances at Very High, that is abnormal. From my own data from mist crafting, UV distribution is more like this:
Low: 162/235 69%
Medium: 51/235 22%
High: 15/235 6%
Max/Very High: 7/235 3%

Guess it is possible that Punch doubles Max/Very High chances, given the costs, more data needed, hehe.

Assuming 3% is normal for Punch too, if someone is trying to roll ASI Very High on a Flourish then two things need to happen:

Hit ASI... 1 in 8 chance
Hit Very High... 1 in 33 chance

So the chance a single roll will be right is 1/8 * 1/13 = 1/264. For every 264 rolls one of them is ASI Very High given even distribution. Not hitting ASI Very High in 67 rolls is not bad luck, it is expected. The chances of getting that at least once in just 67 rolls is only 22%. Even getting it in 264 rolls only has a probability of 63%. Rolling 425 times would finally increase the likelyhood of success to 80%. Statistics!

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 00:43

#19

Xanafein

@Round-Shinigami"Punching on

@Round-Shinigami

"Punching on test server can have different UV chances to make you believe its easy to get good gear. And the main purpose of my study was to get ASI VH toothpick, which has failed :)"

On the test server i have currently spent 78 mil rolling uvs, And i can say the following, the odds are still Really [crappy]

Triple Uvs, are only worth it on shields wich have to have a defense uv, so 3/4 per roll

Doubles have the best cost to benefit ratio for armor

And rolling anything other than singles on weapons is only for the extremely wealthy

I also have come to believe that the odds of maxes on shields is lower than the odds of maxes on armors due to the inability to roll resistances, but I do not think i have rolled enough shields to prove that

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 00:50

#20

Tennis

Using these statistics,

Using these statistics, y'know how tiny the chance of getting VH ASI, VH CTR, and like VH Beast/Fiend would be on a Flourish?

Using Culture's numbers, it'd something like 1/264*1/264*1/264 which equals 1/18,399,744!

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 01:23

#21

Tengu

ugh, math. what're you going

ugh, math.

what're you going to do with all the cr? Use it to make more cr? what's the point?

The point of the game is to make it thru the clockworks. We've done that. Then...win a lot at LD. k. Have really cool stuff? Sounds like a plan.

There's gonna come a point where these statistics will only lead to one conclusion; you hate this stupid %&$ing game and you're gonna quit. Do you want to have your coffers maxed when you pull the plug? What's the point in that?

You might as well roll UVs. Your knight doesn't have a lick of reagent or upkeep costs. It's either roll UVs or bankroll a baby guild to T3 in one fell swoop...and really....who wants to do that for a guild.

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 01:35

#22

Starterknight

Mah Acheron

Rolled a ASI High on it on my first attempt. Because I was a loon, I rerolled for two UVs.

ASI High, Gremlin Low.

Only now do I know the extent of my luck :D

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 04:00

#23

Gwenyvier

From the looks of it the odds

From the looks of it the odds seem to be the exact same as getting a UV from crafting

Roughly
~67% - Low
~22% - Med
~7.5% - High
~3% - Very High/Max (depending on item getting the UV)

(Swapped your High and Very High numbers as the Very High being higher was pure luck)

For a Gun/Sword divide the percent by 8 for actual percent chance for a certain UV (Very High ASI for example would be approx .375%), for Bombs divide by 7 (CTR Very High approx .428%). Armors and Shields are even lower as they have to be divided by 10 (6 status and 4 defenses), meaning if you are looking for a certain Max UV your chances are an abysmal .3%.

In other words, Culture's data rocks. And wow you keep better records then I do.

~Gwen

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 08:34

#24

Round-Shinigami

Updated first post with more

Updated first post with more test results (test server, so it may be different from normal game server).

Tue, 02/14/2012 - 16:03

#25

The-Rawrcake

when you have a second

when you have a second account after a payed account you might as well roll 2 UVs a day on something that might be worth selling or keeping

So the chances are still relevant and nice to have for people that don't rage craft

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 18:55

#26

Apophis-Set

UV rolling testing

well... that's really inaccurate, because the first roll i ever did on my account for SS, i got ASI VH (sold for 14kce) so i could just say 100% of rolls r ASI VH (wudn't that be nice...)

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 19:04

#27

Thenewteddy

Neco! Also failure to

Neco!
Also failure to understand statistics.

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Study on UV rolling chances, *UPDATE* Added UV rolling chances on test server

Study on UV rolling chances, UPDATE Added UV rolling chances on test server