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Odds/chances in Spiral Knights :o

13 replies [Last post]
Wed, 06/05/2013 - 06:28
Apace's picture
Apace

Every unboxing of a prize box or a lockbox that I have seen, It is more common to see newbies open up a rare item whereas a veteran will open up standard item. This case is mainly seen from prize boxes. I can't really pinpoint whether it is related to wealth/inventory total/rank/beginners luck/new to p2p however it seems like the probability changes from player type and actions.

It seems suspicious. Maybe you have already mentioned that it is coded in that certain type of players have a better chance of obtaining stuff =O

Similar in the way that when my friends or myself would open many lockboxes, our chances of obtaining them from the prize wheel would increase. However, you seem to have stopped this and changed the odds now.

One of my friends found a sinister skelly shield from fsc recently and during the promo he had opened many stormy prize boxes. maybe if I do the same and then do a gremlin level I might be able to obtain a darkfang! =D

what do you guys think? opinions? =)

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 06:31
#1
Krakob's picture
Krakob

 

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 06:54
#2
Dementia-Praecox's picture
Dementia-Praecox
Bawkses!

My thoughts on boxes and their contents.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 06:59
#3
Little-Juances's picture
Little-Juances

If these paranoid theories were true, all you have to do is start a fresh alt account and mail it the boxes.

Wed, 06/05/2013 - 10:01
#4
Crowwkd
i have opened many lock

hey extra i have opened many lockboxes and i used to always get at least 1 lockbox from 1 vana run and that 1 every run,now i havent got 1 lockbox in about 10 runs i think 000 have done summet :D

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 00:11
#5
Hexzyle's picture
Hexzyle

It's already been confirmed by the general community that opening lockboxes increases your chances of getting more lockboxes on the elevator prizewheel.
As for the odds for the items inside? It's all just speculation.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 00:14
#6
Xairathan's picture
Xairathan
Odds

There's a theory promoted by several players that the lockbox/UV rolling trends are run on a time vs. luck based thing...

It's just a theory, but here's the concept

Pretend the odds of me crafting a Pierce MAX on any 2* item is 1/1000 and the odds of me unboxing a Twilight Aura is 1/5000

I play 10 hours and craft a 2* item. I get a Pierce Max. Then I craft another 2* item and get say, a Stun Max. Pretty lucky, right?

Then I'll have a run of bad luck for say, maybe 200 hours of play time (not consecutive, actual in-game time. Actually 200 hours is a bit short, but for the sake of theory, let's use it)

Now I have 200 hours under my belt. Something in the odds/mechanisms kicks in and ups my chance of crafting a Pierce Max to say, 1/750 and a chance of a Twilight Aura to 1/4500. Still small odds, but enough to tip the scale.

Long story short, the theory is: Your luck is like a sine wave. Up and down. And it corresponds with your time played.

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 01:17
#7
Aesn's picture
Aesn

Then why... after nearly 50 days of play time... do I still get maid headbands...

Thu, 06/06/2013 - 01:17
#8
Aesn's picture
Aesn

Then why... after nearly 50 days of play time... do I still get maid headbands...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 02:31
#9
Rich-Tbiscuit's picture
Rich-Tbiscuit
Hmm...

It would seem odd that OOO would put in any other system other than random number generator with static odds. That just seems exploitable to have it any other way.

Though I agree that lockboxes have appeared more often after opening them, and have heard the same from others. Does this still happen? Someone else mentioned to me that this feature was removed.

So who knows... if OOO did actually make your chances of lockboxes dropping circumstantial they may have done the same with UVs and Lockbox opening.

All I know for certain is that it's human nature to love trying to spot patterns in random systems. We hate to feel a lack of control.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 10:02
#10
Fehzor's picture
Fehzor

I'd do more research to back up claims like that before making any assumptions.

For instance, last year during the halloween update, I knew someone that opened like 200 halloween boxes, and they got a vaguely even distribution. If you wanted to, you and some friends could perform the same experiment next halloween/xmas.

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 12:57
#11
Shovelheadmcgee's picture
Shovelheadmcgee
Stuffs

I think Xairathan may be saying 10 hours in a row, or that's just how I took it.

Anyways, along with the time and luck relationship thing. I found after trying to get enough energy to craft a rock jelly helm, which took a few hours, I crafted the rock jelly helm. I then got pierce high. Coincidence, maybe...

Fri, 06/07/2013 - 15:30
#12
Mzculet's picture
Mzculet
Easy we can do a test about

Easy we can do a test about it. Give a Newbie and a veteran player lock box and open them at the same time :3

Sat, 06/08/2013 - 07:51
#13
Apace's picture
Apace
update: iron lockboxes odds

update: iron lockboxes odds have changed again, increased+

btw ooo if you're reading this. sorry if this seems like an attack - its not D: i'm not against the system, just interested in it. i love you guys!

I will probably reply to some of the responses later. cant be bothered for now lol

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