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Data for Fire Crystal/Orb and Arcade farming

46 Antworten [Letzter Beitrag]
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Skepticraven

Quick links to the numbers you are interested in:
Arcade Farming.
Treasure Box Content Statistics.

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Disclaimer:
This is older data and may not reflect the current drop rates.
There have been clear known changes since this data was collected (example).
All the raw data is date-logged, so that should be taken into account.

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Since I'm no longer adding data to this project, you are welcome to download the files and use them yourself. All the analysis is automatic as long as you use the format I used. Or, if you can trust a submission form, you can try the "crowd data" thread.
The thread on this topic can be found here.
The form can be found here.
The data analysis can be found here. This data is not linked to the data above.

Discussions below in the rest of the thread.

Note on data: 1 = that item type was dropped. For crowns/fire, that signifies that that type was dropped from a single box. For rarities, 1 = 3 fire crystals. Additionally, there is a rare triple drop for rarities, which would be shown as a 3 to the added sum. Special notes for rare monsters encountered, cost of gates, extra noteworthy items (such as boss tokens), and type of fire crystals (radiants) are located on the spreadsheet as a "note" on the cell.

For reference, the data recorded was:
Depth
Date
Depth Name
Mode
# of party members (taken as the end of the depth)
Depth Payout (Crowns Only)
Box type observed
Box contents

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Bopp
any patterns?

Well, I'm always in favor of collecting data. So thank you!

But this is a big spreadsheet, and the type is tiny in my web browser. I'm not sure what to do with the information you've given so far. Are there any patterns that we can look for? Do some depths pay better than others? Which missions pay the best?

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Skepticraven
Patterns

The spreadsheet is downloadable (to open in google docs, microsoft office, or libreoffice). The link should have a "file" menu from google near the top left, which you can save it to zoom in better.

The only patterns that I've noticed are:
►Higher number depths give more crystals per box, and not more boxes (Hypothesis: Better red:green box ratio).
►Certain depth types have better spread of the quantity of boxes. Missions will have higher payouts in comparison to the depth types it enforces. (I'll have to sort them when even more data is collected, since some only have 2-5 entries)
. Current rankings (least to most frequent boxes) -> Graveyard, Compound, City, Grass (Island), Monsters (3Slime), Candlestick Keep (Pawn), Clockwork (Gear), Treasure Vault, Arena
►Crystal and orb types are depth-dependent, not stratum. (D22 drops both shining and radiant fire crystals, while the rest of stratum 5 will not drop radiant)

I have done some missions more than others for a couple specific reasons...
►Dropped the orbs/crystals I needed to collect.
►Could run through hitting all the boxes without attacking.

There was one interesting thing that I discovered at least with farming orbs: It is more time-efficient to farm crns (via clockworks T3, and buy advanced or lower orbs from the shop than it was to run through (with MSI VH) missions looking for orbs.

I'm really looking forward to my new data I'm gathering to hammer out the Red/Green drop ratios. I'm also recording a lot more data now with a primary drop (fire/crns/token/item) and a secondary drop (fire/sol/orb). The other thing that I was looking into collecting data for was the monster quantities per depth... but that became too tedious to count (Only got through one depth before giving up).

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Skepticraven
Latest Data

I started the new data.

Some emerging patterns are:
►Red boxes do not drop items. (No mats/consumables/ect). Of course this is still pending the ultra rare possibly bugged atm armor/wep drops.
►Red boxes have a currently 25% higher drop rate for fire crystals, sparks of life, and tokens. This is possibly due to (on average) having the majority of my red box datapoints from post-boss areas.

Also, another note: I converted the spreadsheets over to GoogleDoc filetype, so that the links now open the file itself instead of a preview. There are a couple areas in which my formatting didn't convert over completely.

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Skepticraven
Things get interesting

I'm not quite sure what is causing the current swing in my data, but the only major thing (besides time, and possibly luck with the drop generator) is I have been NOT going solo. This has increased my orb farming from about 1 in 5 depths to 1 in 2 depths. I've only recorded one T2 run so far with this possible discovery, but have run a couple other times noticing a similar trend.

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Bopp
keep going

Yeah, it's not a bad idea to keep track of how many people are in the party, in case that affects anything.

I don't have anything else to add, but please keep collecting data. Many players want to know this kind of information.

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Skepticraven
Recording party members

Think I should record it when the depth starts (when the boxes are generated) or when they are opened (when the items are generated)?

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Skepticraven
Nevermind

I give up on trying to guess what is causing what. I just got an elite orb on depth 10 in a treasure vault, which makes no sense . For some reason I think these drops have more to do with "It is random" than it does "certain things make it more likely". Anyone will need a gigantic dataset before any reasonable conclusions can be drawn. I'll just keep slowly adding to the data. At the very least, with enough points people will be able to find the gates that give the best chance for treasure boxes. Somewhere down the line (pending updates to it), we can get a good estimate of chances for things coming out of the boxes.

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Skepticraven
Arcade Changes Render my Data useless?

They are definitely working on changing these drops. I'm going to put any data I record on hold for now.

As of the last update (10/16) there have been a couple changes (all of which I am not completely aware of yet). But for people interested in a couple datapoints...

►Crystal/Orb gather depths have changed. Most noticeably, Radiant crystals have only been spotted on D28, and no longer D22-27. There is a similar shift for other FC's, but has not yet been fully outlined.
►Orbs seem more likely to be found out of place. Previously, Elites were dominant in stratum 4. Now they can be found between S3-S6. (Sample of 5 elite orbs on various depths). Previously, they were very rare outside S4 (Only 1/40 seen as noted with my previous post, as opposed to 2/5 found in S3).

I'm interested to see if the shift in Radiants also affected Shadow Lairs, but currently have none planned in the near future.

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Skepticraven
Arcade Redux Part 1 Data

Now that some of the dust has settled from a recent change and the developers mentioned in patch notes that SoL and orb rates were adjusted, I started recording a couple more runs to see what the data shows again. [All data now appears in post #1]

The "adjustment" that I notice in the data is that SoLs and Orbs are now more common from red boxes, and less common in green boxes. I haven't poured much time into recording data, because there will likely be changes with the [hopefully] soon to come arcade redux #2.

For anyone looking to farm radiants as of right now, your best options are finding red boxes on D28 or doing shadow lairs [confirmed drop only radiants].

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Debrak
My Plan My Present My Datats

Im Just to fool for read this tread i just only write this here
Before Update After update
Radiant OCH SL VANA metro Och SL
Shinings Cold Blood Metro Vana
Glowing JK R.T All under 7-2 Cold blood

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Cmeresweetheart
Sewer stash

I got A LOT of 3 fire crystal per boxes, just sayin, when i was grinding orb on the mission "Sewer stash" in elite the first two floors, after around 3-6 runs i got at least 40 GLOWING FIRE CRYSTALS, since i got a buttload of 3 fire crystals drops, a couple of spark of lifes too(Not in 3-6 runs), and of course around 6 orbs(Not in 3-6 runs), took me 4-6 hours to reach my 6 orbs goal.

Don't know if this helped this topic in any way since i barely understand it.

EDIT: It was a speedrun, so i only killed the "Battle monsters"

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Skepticraven
Note on my data

The fire crystals in my own data represent a single drop. On elite, that means 1 = 3 crystals.

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Skepticraven
Update

Just started recording data again.
With my luck they'll release more updates and changes to this again.
Anyways, I added a "mode" to the things I am recording and may play on easier modes just to see if there is a significant difference in rarity drop rates, as Lancer Knightz suggests there is not.
I also added mission payout, for double-use in Lancer Knightz's analysis if they wish (I will not provide screenshots due to the large quantity of datapoints I expect to be analyzing, and the tediousness of capturing and saving every single one of them)

If there are any questions, just ask!

Donkey-Haute
note added

I've added a note to our mission data page to confirm what Bopp said: Since 2013/12/26, we've been noting all Orbs of Alchemy and Radiant Fire Crystals found. But the drop rates are low enough, that we'll need a lot of data, to reliably estimate the rates. So I'm glad that you're working on it too.

If you actually want to integrate your data with ours, please note that our analyses work best when supplied with all of this information: difficulty, party size, date, crowns earned, sparks earned, orbs earned, radiants earned.

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Skepticraven
@Donkey-Haute

I'll add party size as something I record (luckily everything except 1 run so far has been solo, so dont have to lose a days worth of data). Everything else is integrated in a formatted method (tokens, orbs, and SoLs will have to do a short sum as per row). Would you like me to submit the data to you (such as a formatted summary with exactly what you want) or are you willing to pull the data out? It shouldn't be that difficult for me to just set up a new sheet with it organized as you want.

I can make the special note for radiants on missions that happen to get them in the comments. This will likely be only OCH, since I don't run FSC that much anymore. It will show up as a note on the FC column.

Donkey-Haute
which spreadsheet?

Sorry for the delayed response; I don't visit the forums every day.

Which spreadsheet exactly are we talking about? I've lost track, with all of the links in this thread.

I want to see it, before I bother you with reformatting. In the end, my calculations are done in Python, so reformatting happens anyway.

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Skepticraven
@Donkey-Haute

This is the data.
Each row corresponds to a depth. Sheets are sorted as per arcade, prestige missions, and normal missions.

The couple tedious points is I am recording data per depth and per box, so the following data can be obtained after summed values for the number of depths the mission is:
crowns earned, sparks earned, orbs earned, radiants earned
by summing the depth payout column for the multiple mission depths, and the respective rarities as per depth and box type.

Donkey-Haute
thanks

I've incorporated your two GWW data into our data. Thanks. The rest of your data are not missions, so I can't use them right now.

You are now credited at the top of the page. Let me know if you want your name linked to somewhere (e.g. a wiki page).

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Unthought
Items in Shadow of the Beast

In my recent delve into Shadow of the beast, I found the 3-star Advanced Orb of Alchemy in the first level. A shame because I was after the 2-star version.

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Skepticraven
@Unthought

Types of orbs are difficult to follow, as noted with my post #7 in this thread. You normally find 2* orbs in stratum 2 (where SotB is located). It is possible to find them outside the stratum, with a very rare chance. In my case, it was finding a 4* orb in S3.

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Skepticraven
 

Ok... So I just attempted to record a shadow lair run...

I'm very confused because some boxes were dropping crowns, heat, and tokens (they're all red boxes).
Can anyone confirm this? Or am I confusing things? I dunno, its really strange.

And I lost count of boxes near the end, so just took a rarity and crown payout...

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Skepticraven
2/26 Update

It looks like the rates from boxes remain the same (~200 boxes show similar averages).
The depth that radiants begin (and possibly other crystals) has changed.

From this post, I've done 2 T3 runs that were recorded, both started getting radiants at D27.
From friends, I've heard radiants begin at D26.

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Cdst
Additonal Data for Fire Crystal/Orb farming

I have something important to add. Shining Fire Crystals can now be found easily in stratum 5, with a 100% chance of finding. Rotting Metropolis is a fairly good mission for Eternal orb farming. the chance of Eternal Orbs dropping on Elite in Rotting Metro is still fairly low but would be like 5-10%, however it seems to be more common for me when soloing on this mission. I have already found 3 orbs here and I am starting to notice a trend, the levels enemies will rarely change and when they do it generally seems to give me one Eternal for that run. I also noticed that along with that it seems correct to say that orbs mostly come from red boxes not green.

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Skepticraven
@Cdst

Aah. It used to be about 50-50 on D19. It looks like the shift for radiants was global for all FC then.
Orbs are still confusing and rare enough to predict nicely.

Also D25 is now confirmed to have radiants. This was likely a change at 3/52014 patch.
Source.

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Cdst
Elite orbs are not in the correct stratum anymore...

I have only done a run so far on RT on normal and somehow I got one elite orb. According to the stratum chart in the wiki, this rarely happens in this stratum. I do think this was not in the correct stratum, so if I am wrong please tell me. Again orb drops are still low, even for simple orbs now...
,Oh and by the way, Radiant fire crystals are not that rare (information I have taken from a couple of Vanaduke runs) , the drops being like 35%, but still have a lower chance than shining fire crystals, which are easy to find in 5 and 6.

Hope this helps. I like how we are collecting data, In my opinion it's like Science. Hope this helps! :)

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Skepticraven
 

Ok, I know I talked to a couple people about showing the stratum payouts for the arcade and how odd/even stratums make a difference.
I just added this sheet to the spreadsheet.

I highlighed in green the columns of interest.
Average payout sorted by depth.

You'll notice, despite the low quantity of datapoints, that Depths 19-22 give less crowns than depths 5-7.
Even Stratums give on average better payout than odd stratums.

*D7 average from arcade is skewed due to 2/3 of the datapoints being Snarbolax.
Edit: Moved Gloaming Wildwoods to mission tab, despite running it in the arcade. Next planned calculation will be depth type sorting [box counts and crn payouts per depth type separated by stratum].

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Skepticraven

Added a new sheet.
I can't get the database to call nicely without having tons of work to put in (so I can show depth type and stratum sorting) but this at least pushes out some new information.

This sheet shows averages boxes per depth sorted by depth type. Can't fully trust the crown average yet, since it is not separated by stratum but it gives a good estimate of depth standings.

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Newbyboy
Gratitude

I'm thankful for the data you have collected and as a student learning statistics, it is great to see such a thorough data collection. However, you might want to add a footnote in your data that, all Sparks of life, orbs of alchemy, tokens in boxes are already predetermined during loading and that data percentages in your data should refer to chance of the said item being predetermined in that run in the boxes itself. Generation is random and hence it may vary for every player.

To add on the comment of CDST, I have gotten elite orbs in rotting metropolis too. This could very well indicate that all stratas have chances to obtain 2 types of orbs be it rotting metropolis with 4* or 5* orbs only just that said strata number would have higher chance to drop the orb tier.

Other points to note is that, quantity of boxes and quality of boxes might or might not affect orb drop rate. For instance, lower tier orbs are more common on red boxes whereas higher tier orbs are more common on green boxes, but i do not have enough data to determine whether they are dependant or independant of each other. However, everything is determined by RNG

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Bopp
question

However, you might want to add a footnote in your data that, all Sparks of life, orbs of alchemy, tokens in boxes are already predetermined during loading and that data percentages in your data should refer to chance of the said item being predetermined in that run in the boxes itself.

Maybe I've missed something, but how would one know this? How can you tell whether the RNG code fires when the level loads, or when the box is opened?

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Skepticraven
@Newbyboy

It has to execute when the box is opened, since it checks who all is in the depth and alive. Dead players will not get loot and players can join and still get loot mid-depth. They may use tables of pre-calculated random values for the RNG to reduce execution time, but it is definitely checked when boxes are opened.

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Skepticraven

It appears that equipment drops have returned at some point during one of the kataclysmic updates.
I myself have gotten one drop (not while recording data) of a 3* item in D28.

They appear to be significantly rarer than rarities (I've gotten at least 20+ orbs and 20+ SoLs before finding it since the Kataclysmic event) and appear as the primary drop from the treasure box. Unfortunately, the box was opened by an ally so I was unable to identify if it was a red or green box.

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Bopp
yeah

Yeah, there have definitely been more reports of drops on the forums. It's almost as if players complained, and the developers noticed, found a bug, and fixed it without telling us.

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Glacies

I'm actually wondering myself if this isn't a result of a bug fix but rather the fact that their main income is no longer Energy but rather Direct-Purchased Boxes which seem to be supplying them a lot more money than through Energy which is now just a secondary currency.

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Skepticraven

I think is is safe to come to the following conclusions:

1. Danger rooms are always profitable until energy increases above 10kcrn/100E with the only exception being the first depth of an odd stratum (D1, D9, D19) where the magic number is closer to 6.5kcrn/100E.

2. Even and Odd stratum wealth distribution. I've been saying this for awhile, now to elaborate a bit more on it. The first depth of an odd stratum pays horribly. Usually close to 300crn average (arenas are close to 1kcrn). The remainder of the stratum pays about an average of 600crns. The first depth of an even stratum pays slightly more than odd stratums (~700-800crn). The remainder of the even stratum pays approximately 900crns. [At some point I'll break down to make a full-SQL call comparison for depth types sorted by depth number for a more thorough comparison. Edit: Thought of a clever solution that would take significantly less work to add into the existing calculations. - This may be done within a week.]

3. Arenas are laughably overpowered with their payout if you can beat them. 31 boxes and 3-3.5k crn payout on an even stratum. This means that the one arena out-farms an entire T1/T2 boss lair. Theyre about 3x the payout of most other depths.

4. Candlestick keep is a very strange depth with the highest variance in treasure boxes that I have seen. I have one candlestick keep recorded that contained 30 boxes (Data #395 on Data#5_Arcade). The funny part is that the boxes on this depth were not at their maximum possible quantity (one of the "rooms" had 4 with a max of 6 possible that spawn in the areas). This is the only depth with the possibility to have more treasure boxes than an arena. That being said, the average is around 13, so not a super place to farm.

5. Deconstruction Zones and Graveyards are the only depths which can have 0 treasure boxes. Despite this possibility, compounds seem to have a lower mean at the current worst ranking box count.

6. Clockwork tunnels have approximately a 50% chance of containing a danger room. Without the danger room, they are worse than most other depths. The danger room is significant enough to raise the payout and box count enough to on average be better than all depths except arenas and aurora isles.

7. Aurora isles aren't randomized depths, allowing for better-than-average farming for the (tied for) 2nd best depth type. The Jelly Farm variation is the best of these depths due to a single 3 E gate opening 8 additional boxes and a battle arena (which you can then backtrack and go the normal way again).

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Skepticraven

Just finished up the changes for the arcade payout sorting.

I could definitely further refine the analysis to be "per depth", but it would leave a whole ton more datapoints "undefined" due to no data. As is, stratums 1-4 are a bit lacking. Next step is to integrate in difficulty mode into the sorting.

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Skepticraven

I've started taking advantage of the D1 arena for adding tons more boxes to this research... and I have have found out yet another aspect that was previously overlooked.

Depth sure seems to affect rarity rates.
From the first 200 green boxes, there is a current rate of 5% for fire crystals (12 looted). Yes, I could be hitting a strange part in the random number generator... but the "normal rate" is approximately 4x that. This sheet, if you compare the count and FC columns, gives a fairly good visual representation of this idea. It may in fact just be stratum 1 being different than all others.

Also - I may have evidence of double normal loot from boxes (As I mentioned in the SL notes how some seemed to drop both crowns and heat).
Take a look for yourself.
That location contains 4 boxes, of which two contained crowns, one contained heat, and the last contained both a remedy cap and a pill (shown in the image as stacked on top of each other).

[You can blame Glacies for needing the D3 artillery strike damage and this happening on D3 instead of in the arenas I was gathering data on.]

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Bopp
depth affects rate how?

Interesting. Maybe it's too early to answer this, but what exactly are you saying about depth? For starters, what depths use the "normal" rate? 2-29?

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Skepticraven

I'd need more data, but D1 (4.5%) is significantly different than D28 (19.9%) for green boxes.
I just added 2 new columns to calculate the chance for fire crystals on those depths instead of crowding this post with even more numbers.

The rest of stratum 1 seems to be close to D1, while S4-6 seem to match D28. The "normal" rate I was referring to is the global average, which I previously believed to be the same across all depths (which currently doesn't seem to be the case).

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Skepticraven

For anyone that still is following this thread, I added an SQL-based chart from my data to sort payout by depth type and depth number.

It can be found in the data linked at the top or here.
You will find a sparsely populated table of average payout and run count numbers. (There are about 500 depths recorded, and the table looks really empty still)

I'm not particularly interested in obtaining enough data to draw nice conclusions and am actually nearing the end of updating this treasure box study (Probably going to stop at 10k treasure boxes).
However, since I now have this aspect done... Would there be interest in players submitting data for just crowns obtained in the arcade (say through a google-form)? I feel it would be too tedious to continue the treasure box inclusion (it is rather tedious).
I could set one up quite easily and even have it separated by difficulty.

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Bopp
which data, exactly?

I agree that measuring treasure boxes is pretty tedious. It's amazing that you've kept it up this long. (Applause here.)

What do you mean about data for crowns in the Arcade? The gates keep changing. So what are the observables? Arenas by depth, Clockwork Tunnels by depth, Wolver Dens by depth, etc.?

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Skepticraven

Yes.

The form would have a selection for depth type, depth number, difficulty mode, and crowns obtained.
Each depth would be entered as a different submitted form.

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Skepticraven

I'm now concluding this project of mine.
As I asked a couple posts ago... I did end up setting up the form for arcade payouts.
The thread on this topic can be found here.

This links to the form and data will appear in the first post of this thread as well, as that the general discussion thread will likely get lost quickly.

I enjoyed this project and learned a lot about SQL style data organization. The automation in data sorting was one of the key things that kept me coming back to do more. But now I think I have done the analysis and all that remains is gathering a larger dataset.

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Ciardha
Could i help?

Hey Skepticraven, i looked deeply in all your spreadsheets and im just simply amazed :o.
I have one simple question to ask, can i help in your research to collect data? like doing runs together etc. would be fun to do :D

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Skepticraven

You are welcome to continue the research, but I am no longer actively supporting it.

The sheet is downloadable and updates based on the "Arcade", "Missions", and "Prestige" tabs [where the raw data goes].
I also avoided taking 2 datapoints on the same depth [friends have offered to help running with me] because it would make a bias in the box counting on depths.

If you just wanna go on runs with me, send a friend request and try and catch me online.

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Bopp
Ciardha

The guild Lancer Knightz runs a project where they collect data on various aspects of the game. I'm fond of them because the project leader seems very careful and reliable.

Their mission data page records crowns, treasure boxes, spark tokens, orbs, radiants, etc. Unlike Skepticraven, they don't record the outcome of every single box. Instead they record the outcome of every mission. But unlike Skepticraven they are actively collecting these data.

Skepticraven and I have both contributed data to them, although we aren't in the guild (or at least I'm not). So consider it. Cheers.

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Skepticraven
↑↑↓↓←→←→ba

Brief update:
They have been tinkering with the numbers of boxes (and possibly the contents).

The most notable change is that compounds got more boxes.
They were previously ranked the worst depth (in terms of # of boxes), but now are in the middle. (This is due to a flat +4 boxes at the end.)