Bad luck? [RANT]
sam, 05/21/2011 - 20:34
So i have crafted over 1000 haze bombs to this day.
Results:
1 ctr med
8 ctr low
6 v.high damage bonus
8 high damage bonus
22 medium damage bonus
63 low damage bonus
Yep. its definitely 10% chance for a UV.
And yes, in case if anyone sees something wrong with those results, the best was a friggin ctr med out of over 1000 haze bombs to this day.
God knows why i have such bad luck where a friend made a CTR high within 10 bombs.
The net loss of each haze bomb is 400 each. Thats at least 400k crowns or 8.5k CE i've lost, which can be used to buy a CTR V.High.
Taking some maths, there are 7 different UVs, and 4 levels for weapons. Thats a 1/28th chance to get a ctr med/high/v.high. meaning a 3/28th chance.
Taking the 10% chance to get UV, that should be 3 out of every 280 haze bombs to get a ctr med++. I should have at least 3-4 haze bombs with ctr med and above after making 1000 haze bombs.
Instead, i only got one ctr med haze bomb out of that 1000.
Someone please explain my bad luck.
sam, 05/21/2011 - 20:42
#2
For science. You monster.
GodofSkype1: "You mean to tell me you spent over 10kce on just freaking haze bombs?"
No one said science was inexpensive or easy.
sam, 05/21/2011 - 20:42
#3
>Someone please explain my
>Someone please explain my bad luck.
Your bad luck was needed to make science!
With these numbers we can get an approximation of rarity of uvs.
sam, 05/21/2011 - 20:42
#4
Technically, yes. Because im
Technically, yes. Because im the sort of the guy who likes to make his own equipment
I've learnt from this experience though. I'm never going to craft again and shouldn't need to. I'll just buy my endgame gear.
sam, 05/21/2011 - 20:45
#5
>No one said science was
>No one said science was inexpensive or easy.
I think we should just put all of this behind us. For science. You monster.
sam, 05/21/2011 - 21:00
#6
You forget something...
You forget something... nobody, except the devs, knows the actual percent chance of getting a given UV. Obviously, just going by your numbers (or the AH...) Low UVs have a significantly higher chance of showing up then a Very High, or even a Medium.
Total you got 71 Low, 23 Medium, 8 High, and 6 Very High. So since you provided such a nice test sample it looks like the UV level percent chance for weapons is thus:
Low: 66.03%
Medium: 21.39%
High: 7.44%
Very High: 5.58%
This is +/- up to 1%. And also not including if a given strain of UV is rarer then others.
Going by your 108 UVs I am guessing you crafted somewhere between 1070 and 1090 haze bombs...
Thanks for the data btw. :)
~Gwen
sam, 05/21/2011 - 21:04
#7
All we need to take away from
All we need to take away from this is that UV's are hard to get and he spent over 10,000ce. The crazy galoot.
sam, 05/21/2011 - 21:11
#8
i'm a lab rat now for UV
i'm a lab rat now for UV chance samples now? ._.
dim, 05/22/2011 - 00:33
#9
if only
@roflmao35
A very handsome lab rat! Albeit an unlucky one.
@GodofSkype1
They aren't hard to get, it's apparently a 1 in 10 chance. This does not mean, however, that you have to craft 10 to get 1. You could craft 10 items and get 10 UVs, although it seems unlikely. I doubt they've programmed in something that prevents you from getting a ratio that high.
Anyway, it's probability, not algebra. There's not a set number you _will_ get, just what you _might_ get.
Call if fate, if you believe in God. Call it luck if you don't.
dim, 05/22/2011 - 00:43
#10
I wouldn't try for any more
I wouldn't try for any more UVs on bombs until the situation with CTR gets fixed. This is like crafting Cutters, with 9/10 UVs being +Damage to Hippos or +Sandwich skill. Completely irrelevant.
dim, 05/22/2011 - 05:01
#11
this weekend I made 3 weps,
this weekend I made 3 weps, got 3 UVs on em, 1 High, 2 Lows (1 Faust, 2 Flourishes)
what's the chance for my luck? :O
dim, 05/22/2011 - 05:27
#12
You ragecrafted a thousand
You ragecrafted a thousand Haze Bombs?
*puts sunglasses on*
I guess you have a short fuse.
dim, 05/22/2011 - 07:51
#13
UVs don't appear at equal
UVs don't appear at equal rates.. for instance someone made UV Increased Attack Speed bomb. I made like 100+ brandishes and never made a single CTR UV, not to mention the people crafting caliburs always seem to say that CTR is nearly nonexistant.
dim, 05/22/2011 - 07:24
#14
@DarkRexx
yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh
dim, 05/22/2011 - 07:26
#15
Rare UVs are not balanced
Rare UVs are not balanced around a single player being able to craft them. Rare UVs are balanced around the game population being able to craft them. Otherwise they would be common. I recommend buying the exact UVs that you desire, and crafting with mist energy for chance happenings that will fund your purchases.
dim, 05/22/2011 - 10:10
#16
You did the crafting all
You did the crafting all wrong. You should not have been crafting using your main character.
What you should have done is make multiple alt-accounts, spend 75 cents each, and turn them into paid accounts so they have their own pool of ME. You can then craft 10 Haze bombs for free every day per account and actually EARN crowns by selling it to an NPC.
dim, 05/22/2011 - 11:53
#17
this weekend I made 3 weps,
this weekend I made 3 weps, got 3 UVs on em, 1 High, 2 Lows (1 Faust, 2 Flourishes)
what's the chance for my luck? :O
Assuming you have a 1/10 chance of crafting a UV, you had a 1/1000 chance of crafting 3 UVs in 3 chances. Assuming that there's only a 13% chance of getting at least a "High" UV, your chance of getting at least one high UV out of three was almost exactly 1/3. So yes, you hit a 1/3000 event. Congratulations! It's too low a sample size to prove that it's anything more than luck, but I imagine you're okay with that!
.
Total you got 71 Low, 23 Medium, 8 High, and 6 Very High. So since you provided such a nice test sample it looks like the UV level percent chance for weapons is thus:
Low: 66.03%
Medium: 21.39%
High: 7.44%
Very High: 5.58%
This is +/- up to 1%.
Be careful how you use +/-! In probability, +/- doesn't mean "I rounded off some digits". It's closer to meaning, "I can't know for a fact what the true probability is, but given my sample size and the degree of variance observed, there's a 95% chance it falls within this range." For example, if roflmao35 had gotten 710 Low results out of 1,080 UVs, you could be far more confident that the likelihood of getting a Low UV was 66%. The larger the sample size, the less effect variance has compared to the true probability.
From data we have, we can be 95% sure the chances of crafting a particular level of UV, assuming the chances are equal regardless of UV type, are:
Low: 65.74% (+/- 8.95%)
Medium: 21.30% (+/- 7.72%)
High: 7.41% (+/- 4.94%)
Very High: 5.56% (+/- 4.32%)
Or, perhaps more simply:
Low: 56.79% to 74.69%
Medium: 13.58% to 29.02%
High: 2.47% to 12.35%
Very High: 1.24% to 9.88%
I'm sorry I can't explain further -- it's been half a decade since my last proper statistics course, so I don't remember how the formula is derived, only how to plug numbers into it. If you want to learn more, here's a Wikipedia page to get you started: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence_interval
dim, 05/22/2011 - 12:14
#18
Haha, I have no problem
Haha, I have no problem admitting when somebody does a better job then me on figuring things out. Good job and I will remember that for anything else I end up using statistics for. :)
~Gwen
dim, 05/22/2011 - 12:18
#19
Umm... most 4* and 5* items
Umm... most 4* and 5* items can't be bought. You still have some crafting ahead of you.
dim, 05/22/2011 - 14:27
#20
I wouldn't say I did a better
I wouldn't say I did a better job, I'd say I've taken the right course. :) The main point you were making is correct, I just went a little farther. I'm hoping someone finds the idea of a confidence interval interesting: given that we can never know what the true probability of a random event is (okay, in this case, a developer could pull it out of the code), how do you translate data into a statistic?
It turns out it's never enough to just say, "I'm 90% confident it's 50%" or "It's within 5% of 50%." You can never know that; Your estimate will always be your confidence over a range, as in, "I'm 95% confident it's within 5% of 50%". It's the probability of the probability. Neat!
dim, 05/22/2011 - 19:29
#21
It's not for the faint of heart...
http://threepanelsoul.com/2007/09/03/on-science/ (contains mild language)
You mean to tell me you spent over 10kce on just freaking haze bombs?