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Are Promo Boxes Worth Opening?

12 replies [Last post]
Sun, 05/25/2014 - 18:42
Paintool's picture
Paintool

Fully aware I'm still playing the game, I've been fighting to resist putting money on this promo. I have some sort of cognitive dissonance. I want to support them because I really like the new costumes and story development and the odds are quite fair, however I'm also trying to regress and not invest money in the game either.
But let's put that aside.

Are promo boxes worth opening? As in ever?
We've seen OOO come up with a variety of percentages and ways to sell boxes and premium content, but as I skipped the last 2 promos I became somewhat aware again that I can just as easily be F2P and still get box contents for a fair price. Many times the cost of getting the costume I want is lower than opening a box. That said why should you open boxes ever? Because of ">1%" items?
In their defense, I like the move of being able to purchase more boxes and no CE. Makes me feel economical.
However I have no doubt there are still many CE buyers who would rather by energy than take chances at opening a box.

TLDR:
Better to buy energy, boxes, or just stay F2P?

Sun, 05/25/2014 - 18:54
#1
Welux's picture
Welux

If you like the game, spend money, it helps the developers.
And you can get some swanky reskins in the process.
Come on now, it's only 20$
Do eet.

But yes. its pretty worth it. as if you don't get what you want, just sell it for profit. The reskins are going for like 300-400k, and the costumes are from 40-100k.

Sun, 05/25/2014 - 19:40
#2
Fehzor's picture
Fehzor

If you open a huuggeeee number of them, you'd get the expected value of moneys in return.

Lets keep it simple and assume all of the chances are as they were described:

If you don't win (80%)
Meh Sarong = 50K cr * 7/20 = 17,500
Divine/Shadow/volcanic Sarong = 150K cr * 3/20 = 22.5K
Meh Trunks = 45K cr * 7/20 = 15750
Divine/Shadow/volcanic Trunks = 140K cr * 3/20 = 21K

On average you will receive: 76, 750

If you DO win (20%)

Charcoaler: 300K cr * 1/3 = 100K cr
Soaker: 750K cr * 1/3 = 250K cr
Fork: 725K cr * 1/3 = 241.6K cr

On average you will receive: 591.6K cr

So if you open enough boxes, you should expect:

591.6K * 1/5 = 118.32K
76.8K * 4/5 = 61.4K

You should expect: ~180K per box

Note: this doesn't account for the <1% item, and presumes that you don't open enough boxes to statistically guarantee finding one.

But I MUST have a toiletries aura!

Lets say it sells for.. 100K CE. Just throwing a number out there. 100K CE = 100,000/100 bids = 1,000 * 6.5K cr = 6,500,000 crowns

At .01%, that would add ~650 crowns to the above numbers.
At 1%, that would add ~65,000 crowns to the above numbers.

So if it has a .5% chance = 32.5K it would make the value of each box an even 210K crowns. If you can reliably find and sell that many items/boxes for <200K or so, then you should almost certainly open them till the cows come home. If you can't, then no don't open it. If you can sell a box for >210K, then you should do just that.

Mon, 05/26/2014 - 02:45
#3
Jungle-Sword's picture
Jungle-Sword
fehzor plz

my brain just exploded

Mon, 05/26/2014 - 06:05
#4
Captainshockwave's picture
Captainshockwave
Flappy pancakes

They try their best to reward you for supporting their game. In short, give them all your money, and they give you a desk toy.

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 13:31
#5
Firemetal's picture
Firemetal
No...

No. Its way too sexist. Knights wear armor, not boxer trunks and stupid sarongs.

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 15:08
#6
Pandafishie's picture
Pandafishie

Someone didn't eat their wheaties this morning!

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 15:10
#7
Whimsicality's picture
Whimsicality

Being offended over things that aren't offensive? Where have I seen that before?

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 07:07
#8
Agentz's picture
Agentz
BLARGH

Yes. As long as you're not me. I have the worst luck ever. EVEEEEER. Guy next to me opens 7 boxes: 2 forks, 1 squirtgun, 1 bomb. I open 7 boxes: swimsuits. (x7), -.- The odds are good to get a weapon if you're not me, so yes \(^3^)/ ~Z

Mon, 06/02/2014 - 16:34
#9
Fehzor's picture
Fehzor

7 boxes is way not enough to guarantee you anything, as there is only about a .8 chance of finding any weapons.

See: http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Also, I did calculations, and the boxes are currently not worth opening. You would expect to gain more on the whole from selling than opening.

Tue, 06/03/2014 - 18:57
#10
Rothni-Halias
Why am I seeing this kind of thing so much!?

No. Its way too sexist. Knights wear armor, not boxer trunks and stupid sarongs. ~Firemetal

What? How is this sexist! If anything it's just the opposite, if not at all whatsoever. It offers more variety against wearing thick coats and stuffy armor. I really hope that was just an offhand comment that you didn't really mean.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:14
#11
Abelisk's picture
Abelisk

I recommend purchasing a Promotional box and obtaining what is inside. If it's a more valuable item, such a weapon or an aura, save it for months and sell the promotional item when the price inflates in the Auction House. You can also make a living selling items here in the "Bazaar" forum.

You can also begin to explain energy merchanting, but that is going off-topic I see.

Wed, 06/04/2014 - 11:17
#12
Captainshockwave's picture
Captainshockwave
Flappy Pancakes

Well, pay attention OOO, make a promo box that everyone wins in the end. It'll have something decent in it, instead of when I buy a winterfest box, I get snowballs instead of something actually worth 10 dollars, like a santa costume. We pay you money, you ought to satisfy us instead of making another promo box just to lower our self esteem when it comes to luck.

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