I've opened like, 6-7 Slime Prize Boxes and I've gotten three Crushers.
Does the distribution ratio really matter?
5% Chance, My Keister!
Sat, 07/12/2014 - 08:55
Sat, 07/12/2014 - 10:03
#2
probability
If the chance of getting a Crusher is really 5%, then the chance of not getting a Crusher is 95%. I assume that the trials are independent. Then the probability of getting exactly three Crushers from six Prize Boxes is
0.05 * 0.05 * 0.5 * 0.95 * 0.95 * 0.95 = 0.000107172,
or about 1 in 10,000. This unusual outcome seems to be evidence that the chance is not really 5%.
On the other hand, we would never have heard from you if you'd had a more common outcome. I mean, for every weird case such as yours, there may be thousands of completely common cases that aren't being reported because they're boring. Given enough people trying these chances, somebody is bound to have a weird outcome. You may simply be that person. So in the end I am not convinced that the stated chances are wrong.
Sat, 07/12/2014 - 10:23
#3
@Bopp
Shouldn't the probability be (6 choose 3)(.05^3)((1-.05)^3) cuz order wouldn't matter?
(6 choose 3)(.05^3)(.95^3) = 20 * 0.000125 * 0.857375 = 0.0021434375
Which is still unlikely, but as you said-- the OP is specifically looking for this to occur, and would likely have been just as surprised to find even more than 3 crushers, 3 shields, or even some other unlikely mixture of low pecentage chances..
Sat, 07/12/2014 - 10:33
#4
I've opened zero boxes and I've gotten nothing. Four times in a row.
Four times.
Crazy, right
Sat, 07/12/2014 - 11:39
#5
Fehzor
Fehzor, you are right about the 6-choose-3 factor. Thanks.
Sat, 07/12/2014 - 18:08
#6
BEST DAY OF LIFE
Sun, 07/13/2014 - 03:38
#7
Spiral Knights in a Nutshell
>>Bopp: I could not have summed up the game and it's countless statistically unfair promos in a better way.
"there may be thousands of completely common cases that aren't being reported because they're boring."
Sun, 07/13/2014 - 03:58
#8
Don't worry, I do worse than 90% chance, my keister!
I'm over here and 3/5 of my boxes were military node guards.
The random number generator is a finicky little bugger.