What if the likelihood of getting Black Kat spawns or Book Drops increases as you kill regular kats?
Are Black Kats/Books pseudo-random?
Fri, 09/19/2014 - 17:11
Fri, 09/19/2014 - 17:23
#2
Don't think you read that right
Autofire is asking if killing Spookats (and any non-black variant) increases the chances of a black kat to spawn.
Essentially, is speedrunning candlesticks really the best way, or should we be killing all the kats, regardless if they are practicing black magic?
Fri, 09/19/2014 - 17:36
#3
You are experiencing a PICNIC ERROR!
Yes, Fangel has it right.
Fri, 09/19/2014 - 17:38
#4
500 black kats and no book drop, you say?
There is a 99.3% chance of you finding one at that rate, if the chance is at 1%, and a 91% chance of you finding one if it is at 1/2 of a percent.
Normally I would discount your evidence just because you'd post it because you would post it etc. But even then, less than a .07% chance of you not getting one is... unusual, considering that you're a forum regular, and that I know of several others that have similar statistics. The percentage of getting a book IS looking closer to 1/2 percent per kat :(
Sat, 09/20/2014 - 01:56
#5
H A T R E D
I've been consistently finding Black Kats once every three hours of hunting. That's totally a buff, right?
Sat, 09/20/2014 - 09:39
#6
^
i just gave up after doing about 8 levels of candlestick keeps and not even finding any black kat. pherhaps you should do the same?
daily and then kthxbye for me, maybe try going to the lion gate once or twice but well... lets say i only like to go to the casino to have fun and pull a few levers, maybe roll some dices, but not to sit there all day trying to hit the jackpot, everyone would call such a person a gambling ADDICT in wich case you srsly need to stop and get professional help.
Sun, 09/21/2014 - 11:49
#7
You have an point here - "Luck manipulation" may work on BK spawn. Why I'm saying that? Well, I just speedruned 11 CSKs without hitting anything and got NOT A SINGLE Black Kat.
Sun, 09/21/2014 - 13:11
#8
"Are Black Kats/Books
"Are Black Kats/Books pseudo-random?"
Yes, as it would be rather strange if this game used environmental or chaotic randomness. Not saying it isn't possible, but extremely unlikely.
"What if the likelihood of getting Black Kat spawns or Book Drops increases as you kill regular kats?"
From the last event, a friend and I farmed using different methods. I killed all the kats, while he ran (separate parties).
Given roughly the same amount of time spent on runs, he ended up with about 100-150 more ancient pages than me (I had around 300 pages). Neither of us got a book.
I obtained 100 ancient pages this event and decided that the rates had not changed significantly enough for me to play this event.
Sun, 09/21/2014 - 15:04
#9
Mtax-Forum
I did 60 runs
Mtax-Forum
I did 60 runs today, got 19 Black Kats.
My worst string of no-kat runs was 18. 18 runs in a row without a single Black Kat. On average, I get 1 Black Kat every 3 levels. Sometimes I get two kats, sometimes I get them several runs in a row.
I currently have around 100 pages (had some leftovers from previous events). No book yet.
I feel like I grind this for the study alone (its not very detailed as I don't write down the amount of spookats I see).
I tried killing many kats and killing nothing unless I absolutely have to. Neither seem to affect Kat spawn rates. My educated guess is: its too bothersome to make pseudo-random chances, so in this game they're not used. We got purely random random.
Sun, 09/21/2014 - 15:48
#10
↓
@Round-Shinigami-Jr
"My educated guess is: its too bothersome to make pseudo-random chances, so in this game they're not used. We got purely random random."
Pseudo-random doesn't mean what you think it means.
What it actually means is that the randomness is based upon both the input and the process of thesystem. Most computer-generated randomness falls into this catagory. However, you can have environmental and chaotic randomness. Random.org uses environmental randomness with atmospheric data. Built-in java libraries use a short algorithm to pseudo-random values out (I'm a fan of the Mersenne twister adding on a Bays-Durham shuffle for added entropy).
What you seem to be confusing it with is correlation or even random dependencies (likely what the OP did as well).
It is pseudo-random. Are there hidden random dependencies? Most of the people that record data are not observing much significant.
Sun, 09/21/2014 - 17:30
#11
right
The original poster is not using the term "pseudo-random" correctly. But the original post makes it clear, what he's actually asking about. Which is whether drop rates are independent of kat-killing history.
I thought this was debunked already.
If anything help, I've killed over 500 Black Kats already and no book drop.