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I was bored, so I tried to quantify skill in Lockdown.

11 replies [Last post]
Fri, 12/19/2014 - 22:22
Deleted-Knight's picture
Deleted-Knight

I created a metric that would kinda, sorta, maybe measure skill quantitatively based on a lot of data gathered from Lockdown games. Since nobody has the data, you can just make up values that someone you're competing against agrees with. Then use the metric to figure out your relative skill index.
Hypothetical application:
"I'm better than you."
"NUH UH."
"Fine let's use this metric. You agree that the average Lockdown player gets __(list of assumptions)___?"
"Yeah, sure."
"Okay, let's plug in our own data to calculate our skills then."
(does calculations)
"HA, I got a higher Skill Index!"
"WTF, this metric is full of crap. You're still a nub. Deleted-Knight is also a nub for making this crappy metric."

____________________________________________________________________________
For the purpose of this metric:
"Skill" = The ability to maximize one's contribution to winning, averaged over many different games (played with different people).

Significant Assumptions
1. Everyone is trying to play their best every match. (not accurate, but hard to quantify "effort", so yeah)
2. There is a wide range in skill levels within the LD population.
3. Luck factors disappear when we take the average of many games.

Some constants that are assumed to be known:
DGP = mean damage score for the general population.
CPP = mean caps per game for the general population.
DFP = mean defends per game for the general population.

Lockdown shields must be ignored when calculating the following constants:
DBP = mean weapon damage buff used by the general population.
--> Take the damage buff for guns, swords, bombs, and average them. Then average that over everybody.
SBP = mean weapon speed buff used by the general population.
--> ASI for guns and swords, CTR for bombs. Calculate in similar way as DBP.
MSP = mean movement speed buff used by the general population.
--> Again, calculated in the similar way as above.
ATP = mean AT usage by general population.
--> For every person, assign a value 0-1 where 1 is always use AT, and 0 is never ever use AT. Average over everybody.
HPP = mean base health of the general population.

IMPORTANT NOTES:
1. Average buff values should be expressed as percentage (where 100 is no buff, <100 is debuff, >100 is buff). Ideally the average should be weighted across different loadouts based on usage.
2. The "population" should be chosen so the "significant assumptions" are as accurate as possible without making the pool of players very small.

Player-Specific Values:
LT = mean latency (ping time) of player's connection in seconds.
JT = mean jitter (ping uncertainty) of player's connection.
DG = mean damage score for that player.
CP = mean caps per game for that player.
DF = mean defends per game for that player.

DB = mean weapon damage increase. (expressed as percentage as before)
SB = mean weapon speed increase.
MS = mean movement speed increase.
AT = value from 0-1 defined same way as the description for ATP.
HP = mean base health.

WR = win rate = (# games won)/(# games participated)

________________________________________________________________________________
The Formula

CNX = MIN[(sqrt(JT/LT) + LT), 1] --> Assume nobody with 1 second latency or 100% jitter will play LD.
SCR = (1/3)(DG/DGP + CP/CPP + DF/DFP)
BNR = (1/3)(DB/DBP + SB/SBP + MS/MSP)
TKR = (1/2)(AT/ATP + HP/HPP)

Skill Index = (SCR + 2WR) - (BNR + TKR)(1 - sqrt(CNX))
________________________________________________________________________________

Benchmarks and Comments

Connection Strength effects on Skill Index*
400 ms latency and 10% jitter ==> ~1.69
200 ms latency and 10% jitter ==> ~1.44
100 ms latency and 10% jitter ==> ~1.29
50 ms latency and 10% jitter ==> ~1.21
25 ms latency and 10% jitter ==> ~1.17

400 ms latency and 20% jitter ==> ~1.84
200 ms latency and 20% jitter ==> ~1.61
100 ms latency and 20% jitter ==> ~1.48
50 ms latency and 20% jitter ==> ~1.41
25 ms latency and 20% jitter ==> ~1.37

*Values are for hypothetical player which has equipment and average scores equal to that of population mean.

Jitter really screws up timing in fast-twitch games, so extra jitter affects performance more than extra latency. The metric tries to compensate for this.

Caps/Defs/Dmg effects on Skill Index
1. Doubling average on any of the three (while matching average in the others) will yield +0.33 to Skill Index.
2. Getting double the average value on all three will yield +1, much more than any penalty resulting from good latency.
3. Skill index doesn't change if you have 1.5 times the average dmg and lose half the average caps or defs. (NOTE: average = population avg, not personal avg). Likewise you can have 1.5 the average caps or defs and half the average dmg and still be equally skilled.
4. Each category is an equal reflection of skill due to symmetry in the formula.

UVs/Trinks/AT effects on Skill Index
1. Health bonus and AT are lumped together because both directly make room for more mistakes. One in defense, the other in offense.
2. Speed and damage buffs are lumped together because they all are secondary buffs with benefits that depend on playstyle. I assumed any such buffs are on a loadout because they are useful. (eg. A pure swordsman will not wear full gunner buffs, all BKC/chaos users use guns, swords and bombs)
3. Buffs can only help so much, so they are allowed to reduce the Skill Index only down to a certain range.

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 05:39
#1
Valtiros's picture
Valtiros
That sounds really thought. I

That sounds really thought. I loud the effort for having so much worked to dress up a skill formula. I think you should add the stalling skill, it can be very useful for the victory of the team, especially for recons and gunners.

Er...I don't really understand what jitter is, it's linked to the fps?

So, I guess we have to calculate our own skill index so that we can find an average skill?

I will.

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 05:45
#2
Valtiros's picture
Valtiros
Oh, ok it's ping uncertainty

Oh, ok it's ping uncertainty , but..how do we determine that?:o

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 05:46
#3
Valtiros's picture
Valtiros
Also, the server you ar eused

Also, the server you ar eused to play should be taken into account. I can say that the US server is "weaker" than the EU server. It's easier to do big scores in US than in EU , the average skill level is lower in there.

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 13:00
#4
Deleted-Knight's picture
Deleted-Knight

Valtiros,
Go to pingtest.com. It will give you a rating for your average latency and another rating for how much your ping fluctuates over time. Usually jitter is high if you have a congested connection. A better way would be to ping the SK servers directly using command line, but I think SK servers are behind a firewall that doesn't accept ping requests.
Packet loss is much worse than jitter, but I figured people who have lots of packet loss won't play LD.

I'm not sure what you mean by "weaker server". EU and US servers can be accounted for in the connection strength. Determining a difference between the servers themselves is too tricky.

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 13:14
#5
Krakob's picture
Krakob

Determining a difference between the servers themselves is too tricky.
No, you just try one game on each server and then you know that Eu has higher skill level than US.

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 13:35
#6
Turn-Me-On's picture
Turn-Me-On
@Krakob Usually you post

@Krakob

Usually you post smarter things than this...

Right, because one game will determine anything. You must know nothing about statistics....

You cannot say any server has a higher skill level unless you test everyone on equal grounds. You would also have to take multiple samples (games), and since this is not feasible, it remains that only assumptions can be made about which server has more skill. Clearly, your ego brings you to say Eu has higher skill.

Come on, you can do better than that.

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 14:42
#7
Tempas's picture
Tempas
EU does have higher skill(or

EU does have higher skill(or at least overall, more players who are skilled). It can easily be shown by when EU players go to USA rld. These guys are usually 100-200ms behind everyone else and yet still have the best score(usually). Why do you think like all the records in contri's thread are set on the USA server ?

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 14:49
#8
Krakob's picture
Krakob

What brings me to say that Eu has higher average skill is that I struggle to be the best in most Eu lobbies and can seldom really make a huge difference in team scores while I can get on US at 2 am on a 2-bar connection and almost fall asleep while scoring 15k and making my team win 500-100. I have scored several of my damage records on US and I'd say that my average damage on US probably exceeds my average on Eu. Lots of my fellow high level Eu players feel the very same. Yeah sure, this might as well be because US has more sub-vanguard players who hardly have a 5* weapon but those players tend to not be very skilled and would probably not do very well even with good gear.

This might be harder to observe for US players. They could get on Eu but would suffer more lag and would get their butts kicked a lot and wouldn't be able to properly judge the difference between players because lag gets in the way of perception.

Is that "better than that"?

Sat, 12/20/2014 - 14:59
#9
Deleted-Knight's picture
Deleted-Knight

@Tempas
That might have to do with how the data is transferred from Europe to USA. Because of such long distance, I think what happens is two different worlds are simulated, one on EU server and one on USA server. The two servers communicate with each other to stay in sync.
If there's little traffic coming from EU to USA, data gets sent to USA faster than data gets sent to EU (or vice versa). As a result an EU player's hit can register before a USA player's hit even though both really occurred simultaneously (or vice versa).
This seems more plausible than "server X is better than server Y".

@Everyone
Either way, like Octaslash said, it's really hard to measure intrinsic server differences. The best solution would be to use different population means for players that play on different servers. So an EU person is judged with EU players and an USA person is judged with USA players. The two rankings are based off of the same index, so still comparable.
It's like saying someone is the top 1% in EU compared to someone who is the top 2% in USA. It's not directly saying who's better, but it does say who is better in their own environments.

Sun, 12/21/2014 - 04:33
#10
Valtiros's picture
Valtiros
I agree. Yet, speedteest

I agree.

Yet, speedteest gives me my ping but I don't see any jitter..

Sun, 12/21/2014 - 09:02
#11
Bleyu

@Deleted-Knight

US Players are in general worse than EU players. I personally played on US because I knew I would record better dmg videos there, and I did it.
This doesn't mean there aren't many bad players on EU, because it's also full of noobs. But talking about good players, they are mostly from EU, at least nowadays.

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