I want a curse max firefly shade set. I REALLY want it.
nobody seems to have anything even close to it, so I considered my alternatives.
I could always mass-craft shade pieces from padded. though then I would only be able to use any UVs on shade sets and I would have a LOT of rejects. to get what I want, I would likely need to make so many that I would drown the market. also making all that will cost lots.
the other possibilty is to punch padded pieces. the upside is that I could use any resulting UVs in any sets, not only shade. the problem (again) is cost. getting curse max is according to this is about a 0.2% chance. doing some calculations means that when I roll 300 items (which will cost about 6mil), the chance of getting a curse max is about 26% for one piece and about 7% for both. also I would only get on average 6 max UVs. to recouperate my losses, I would have to sell these six at very high prices, like 7kCE.
so, what is your opinion on the matter? how could I best get what I want?
punching vs crafting
Probably darkfire vanaduke
Shadow, fire, curse, universal damage low
Why go through so much effort for it though?are you going to try doing the whole thing without dying?
Random sidenote from someone who used to alt-craft a lot in the mist ages...
Even if you get a UV you don't want, there is usually a market for it. So I'd recommend a combination of the two tactics. Make a ton of Shade armor for a chance at UVs, then roll on the ones that don't end up with UVs. Getting/selling a few lucky UV's can really help your budget.
I personally prefer crafting because:
A) You can give extras away as gifts to make the world a better place
B) You get a chance at double and triple UVs
I'm not going to hold back on this one.
Really? This is the best advice we can give?
There is no market or gameplay option that relies or requires you to upgrade your UV's without gambling or gambling.
I hate luck based drops in the bucket that supposedly fix the economy.
Do you know how long I've been looking for a Poison Max plate helm? Do you know how many hours I spend playing this game to be denied such a poor UV that isn't going to help me? 3000 plus hours of grinding and 2 plus years and nothing to show for it.
So go ahead keep gambling at Punch or crafting and rolling UV's and see where that gets you.
This game wasn't made to give you anything that you want; boxes are a testament to that. They want you to play and sell bull that you don't to feed a starving economy.
And don't get me started on rolling double or triples at Punch.
You don't know the half the snipe-waste I've seen on testing server rolling away Millions of CE worth of crowns on trying to get something "I want".
You don't know how long it takes to get just 1UV right let alone the 2nd or 3rd UVs.
QUIT WHILE YOU STILL HAVE MONEY!
sorry, but no. that isnt how probability works.
I want one curse max, but dont mind getting more. therefore the chance of getting one or more curse max UVs is 1-(1-p)^n, where p is the probability of getting one and n the number of rolls.
if p is as you say, I have a 40% chance at a curse max on one piece and 15% on both.
@vohtarak
yes. and yes.
@travaevelliath
I know I can almost always sell UVs. even the freeze/fire/shock/poison lows I could most likely sell.
but as I said before, padded is better for selling than shade.
@paintool
I only want single UVs, at least until I get rich IRL.
do you know how long I was looking for a fire high skelly suit?
not even max, just high.
The best option is definetely buying it. Even if you have 0.2% chance, this doesn't mean that you will ever get it, so it might be just total waste of money. Punch is evil creature and Crafting machine is even more evil - They read your mind and never give what you want (Tru story).
While you may try buying it, yes, it will take some time, but totally not that much which took you to get money for punch and crafting.
I dont want to spend years waiting for someone to get a curse max, much less spending daily effort trying to find this elusive and purely theoretical person.
if a seller shows up, fine. but I wouldnt bet on it.
Since punch is troll, I'd wait, if I were you - even if it would take a LONG, LONG time. Nevertheless using 1 uv tickets is mostly just a waste, he'll like never give you the desired uv.
Then again, curse max just for ufsc? Sure you do it a few times, but then what? You'll rarely ever need curse resistance outside the sl. You can do ufsc in chaos or bkc set just fine, w/o dying if you're good enough.
The new gunner armors are a bit tricky for ragecrafting since you have to mass buy padded sets that bump up the craft price roughly 66%. I've been crafting shade sets for a while, I did get a Stun max shade armor. Those things can just take a while, but I think crafting >> rolling for any rage-craftable item.
sorry, but no. that isnt how probability works.
I want one curse max, but dont mind getting more. therefore the chance of getting one or more curse max UVs is 1-(1-p)^n, where p is the probability of getting one and n the number of rolls.
You and I are computing different things. You are computing the probability of succeeding one or more times in the first n rolls. I am computing the expected number of rolls until first success (assuming independent Bernoulli trials). It is a theorem of probability. In fact, your calculation enters into the proof of this theorem.
We could compute many other quantities if we wanted. But I argue that my quantity is what you're really interested in, because it answers the question, "How much is it going to cost, to get an armor piece with curse+4?"
All calculations aside, it's fairly obvious that punching will always be the more expensive method. There's no arguing that after all the past debates on rolling VS crafting, crafting provides fair return on investment from selling vanilla equipments. Rolling one variant is roughly the cost of crafting 3 shade armors, and sure rolling provides an instant variant, but that's exactly why rolling exists: feed impatient players.
Crafting is gonna take a while for sure, from my own experience I can only get around 3 shade piece variants a week and I've well optimized my selling and crafting methods over the years, there's only so much crafted items you can sell a week (assuming you only use AH).
Anyway it's all fairly pointless, like Mtax mention, you're better off just waiting for someone to sell one. That's the real money-saver. Timewise not optimal, but it's easier to count on the rest of the playerbase getting what you need than trying for yourself, right?
it's easier to count on the rest of the playerbase getting what you need than trying for yourself, right?
I agree, especially since Neueragon is going for a fairly unpopular UV. He should be able to buy it for quite a low price.
@neometal
I need radiants and apparently UFSC hands them out like crazy. as I need a LOT of radiants, I will need to do a LOT of UFSC runs.
so I want every little advantage I can get, to optimise my run and get the most out of it.
and before you say it, yes, I am not extremely good. things will hit me, and I want to be affected as little as possible.
@bonjourhippo
how is crafting the better method if rolling only costs 3 times as much and gives you a guaranteed UV?
even with reselling the crafted rejects, there should be some loss. with rolling you have the same thing, except your wares are worth more, as you have padded, which can be upgraded into any of the 3 lines.
@bopp
I tried buying ANY curse UV. after weeks I ended up with a curse low padded armor only.
I also checked AH whenever I logged in and never saw a curse UV.
I only really need 5 points of resistance (to get cursed weps to 1), but no matter for how little or how much I went, I could not find one piece of it.
Alright Neue, quick math. We'll just assume the following constants:
Price of 50CE : 4200cr
Cost of materials : 200cr
Chance for a single variant : 10%
That gives us 3000cr+4200cr+200cr+400cr (crafting fee) per shade piece = 7800cr
Let's assume a sale price on AH of 8000cr, of which 10% is lost to AH fees, gives us a total cashback on vanilla items of 7200cr, i.e. 600cr lost per item crafted after selling the vanilla item.
600/0.1 = 6000cr average cost per variant, and that doesn't include chances for 2 or 3 variants on crafting (1/100 and 1/1000).
Even by tuning the prices a bit you'll always find that crafting has a much lower average cost per variant than rolling, this is undeniable. And mind you, new gunner items are the most expensive 2* items to craft!
Hope the reasoning is alright with you, this of course assumes you're patient enough to craft, sell, craft again, sell again, etc.
Conclusion: crafting is cost effective, rolling is time effective.
I tried buying ANY curse UV. after weeks I ended up with a curse low padded armor only.
I also checked AH whenever I logged in and never saw a curse UV.
I only really need 5 points of resistance (to get cursed weps to 1), but no matter for how little or how much I went, I could not find one piece of it.
That's surprising to me, but I've never been in this market, so I believe you. Well, good luck. :)
What about Curse resistance trinkets/Sprite perks?
Also now I feel guilty for randomly getting Fire MAX on my Plate Mail. :<
But, I would just suggest a mix of crafting and punching.
you indirectly state that crafting is more time-consuming. I want to know how long it would take me.
first of all, I stated the 300 item number as that would bring costs that I would still be able to bear.
I now want to know how much I have to craft to get the same chances.
if the chances for UVs are as you stated, you have a 0.111 chance of getting any UV(s), or about 1/9.
the chance of getting a curse UV when you get a UV is 9/10*(p1) +9/100*(p2) +1/100(p3)
p1 is the same as before, 0.6%. p2 is the chance at a curse max UV for double UVs, which is (1/10+ 9/10*1/9)*6%, or just 1.2%
p3 is the chance at a curse max UV for triple UVs, which is (1/10 + 9/10*1/9 * 9/10*9/10*1/8)*6%, if I am not mistaken, which is about 1.8%
so the total chance is now 0.666%
to get the same chance as before, I now need to get about 280 UVed items.
as only 1/9 get UVs, this means I need to craft on average 2520 items. 2240 of them will be "junk".
if I can sell 10 of the rejects each day (which IMO is a large overestimate), it will take me 224 days, or over 7 months to sell them.
selling such a large number will probably also saturate the market, lowering both demand and price.
fun fact: crafting that many shade armors will take roughly 126kCE, 8mcr, 12.6k dark shards, 5k vile seals and 5k grave soil.
@autofire
I have my trinkets as health and my sprite as handgun bonus. there is no room for curse resists.
@Neueragon looks like you understood the bulk of it.
Crafting only 1 kind of item is quite pointless, it's all about the range of item. My stats are roughly 30 shade sets per week, so it would take about a year and a half in theory to get the wanted variant :p
Probably time enough to find a seller. On the other hand rolling would cost you a whopping 4.4m cr or so to get the wanted variant (insert relevant research thread here, I know it exists although it's pretty old), which may too take a while to obtain, although that much depends on your ability to make money rather than pure luck. It certainly wouldn't pay off much to farm 4.4m cr solely for rolling so that's where your own ability to get riches comes in play.
It's worth noting that perhaps another gear option could be found by the way, there are several other more mainstream solid fire resistance items!
Again restating the obvious.
This game wasn't designed with your personal customization mind; rather it hopes you die sooner without your resists and play a lot longer with the mind set of "maybe someday" I'll have enough money to get lucky. You aren't rewarded for your skill or time invested. It's all about luck. And if you can't craft it or roll it, what makes you think anyone else will? What if they don't want to sell it?
And while we're at it, why do you think shield UV's are still garbage? Because if you could punch roll resists on a shield, you'd be too likely to live longer.
If you've made it this far into the game just fine, then maybe you don't really need those UV's.
It's only a waste of time or money.
@bonjourhippo
there are no other sets that provide normal/shadow damage resist and fire/curse status resist. also none that provide useful bonuses to my blitz.
I planned to get the money not by farming, but rather by IRL money. doing some good trading would mean that I have bearable costs.
@paintool
yes. you pretty much listed my worries in the last part.
yes. except shield status UVs arent actually that useful. plain shield resist is minimum 8 points, max UV is only 4, so you wont get as much out of a great UV as you would get out of a more suited shield.
I know I dont NEED the UVs. but in the long term I might be better off getting the curse set with obnoxiously high costs and using it to farm UFSC instead of spending the money on radiants.
The discussion on probability aside, if you really wanted to just have something for UFSC it's better to look at other armour options which get crafted by players more frequently with similar stats, eg. Divine set, Deadshot set. I personally use a Curse Max Divine Veil and it covers up the weaknesses well on its own.
I have a curse max shadow medium padded cap if you're interested. Sent friend request to you.
And that's half your problem solved, wish I was that lucky when I'm looking for stuff
But looking for curse defense in the first place is a bit useless IMO, status resists only take off a few seconds, and curse lasts so long it won't make much of a difference
In UFSC it's pretty nice to have though. I use a +8 curse setup for UFSC and its definitely easier with it.
How much time does +8 take off? I never bothered to get numbers as the only thing I did status-wise is negate the weaknesses on my seerus mask and get shock wisp immunity
Its something like 25 seconds, with one weapon cursed IIRC.
Spending x mil crowns to get a mediocre armor set to farm radiants in UFSC is silly...Why not spend the x mil crowns on radiants in the supply depot then? its a waste imo, but so is rolling for a specific (and unwanted) UV. You could also just farm normal FSC and still get a nice amount of rads, or you could get yourself a set that is easier to get (if you have no curse penalty and 3 weapons you will always be able to fight).
I. Check the table on the curse page of the wiki.
As you can see, even w/o any resistance, you'd have two weapons marked, and you need only 5 points just to have one weapon marked. If you have one or two extra weapon slots - which is way cheaper to have then your desired uvs, you will always have an unmarked weapon.
If you insist on having only 1 marked weapon, try getting a med + high uv (or max + low) instead of the unnecessary 2 maxes.
The only benefit of having more and more curseres is the time being statused, but believe me, if you can stay alive cursed for 20 secs, you can do the same for 40 secs, too.
II. Sources of curse (in ufsc)
a, Almirian Shadow Guards - lesser known fact that these monsters can also inflict curse on you, but if these behemoths do manage to hit you, getting statused will be the least of your concern, since your hp will rapidly melt away if they steamroll you. So yeah, just dash the heck away from these.
b, Carnavons - many ppl seem to forget that only the breathe attack does curse, while their normal attack inflicts fire. The breathe attack - which you shouldn't just be standing in front of in the fist place - can be easily disrupted/stopped by attacking the zombie.
c, Darkfire Vanaduke - both DV's mace and the bullets in phases 2 + 4 can curse you. Nevertheless, if you are smashed by him, the stun + fire will cause bigger probs than the curse.
Luckily, the water (and the circle in the middle of the 2nd depth) will instantly remove curse and the fire as well - most notably useful during the bossfight.
If you have ample hp and a spare remedy pill, I recommend using it - some health in exchange for the ability to use your stuff is well worth it.
III. Alternatvies
If you still insist of having 8 points of curse (+fire)res, consider getting a fire max Deadshot set. These are somewhat easier to get/more common - at least compared to what you want. The Deadshot and the Sacred Shade sets have somewhat similar stats:
- both have asi med for guns
- the Deadshot gives undead vh to all weapon types, while the Sacred gives med gun dmg. Sure, DV, and some other stuff there aren't undead, but 90% of ufsc IS. If you are using multiple weapon types, the Deadshot will benefit them more.
- the Sacred does give ctr med for handguns, but that can easily be achieved by a trinket or perk (or - I'm guessing it'd be for the blitz - a fairly cheap med ctr uv)
Another alternative could be the Divine set. This will only provide you with med dmg vs fiends, which is only helping vs the trojans, but it does have 8 points of fire + curse resistance, and the recipes are obtainable from the HoH, so it is ever-so-easy and cheap to make.
tl,dr : GETTING CURSE MAX IS UNNECESSARY!
@dutch-oven
great, gonna discuss things with you ingame.
@plancker
spending as much money as I mentioned on punching would not mean that I lose that much money. I should get 18 max UVs out of rolling, which I can definitely sell to get some money back. and not to mention all the highs. meds and lows can even be sold as well, albeit not for a profit per piece.
I spent ages farming FSC. too slow and too little.
@neometal
see post 13.
I want to be affected as little as possible.
Then you should just unlock all your weapon slots and pad up on fire resistence instead then, because that is way more problematic than curse. And what's wrong with a Divine set or Deadshot set? All the alternatives are still way cheaper and no less effective than the UVs you want. Unless you're just being stubborn. Curse UVs on almost anything is dirt cheap, people can't even get rid of it half the time, there's definitely some on the market.
I'm on the same boat as Plancker here. If you're willing to spend so much money/resources on a single set so you can get radiants, then spending more money on shadow keys... It seems more cost efficient to just buy the radiants from the depot.
By your own estimation: 126kCE, 8mcr, 12.6k dark shards, 5k vile seals and 5k grave soil is the price cost while 7 months is the time cost to get your money partially back. Crown and energy cost of that alone would be ~16,142 radiants from the depot. That is enough to fully heat ~35 5* pieces fully. This also all happens immediately (assuming you have the funds) opposed to in 7 months.
Now on top of this initial estimated cost, you are most likely paying 450 energy per shadow lair run. You may get 0 radiants, or you may get 80 radiants. I know I've been on the short-end of the radiant stick before in darkfire vanaduke and netted less than 30 radiants. Usually I don't get over 50, but I'm the unlucky one in the party consistently.
I guess what I'm saying is if you're willing to cough up roughly $500 to this game in the long run, why do you insist on trying to use the RNG system when you already know what you want? You seem to want to have the most cost-effective game, but in all honesty you're looking down the most expensive and unrewarding paths.
Also, you really don't need that gun damage bonus of medium from your sprite. That's like, one to two hits extra on enemies you wouldn't have to do. You can give up 2 hits per enemy for the ability to always use at least one weapon...
@leekcoco
I have all my slots unlocked and a firefly shade set gives plenty of fire resist. as fire is not documented as well, I dont want to spend money on a potentially useless UV. also, read post 13, I tried to get curse.
divine is lacking normal defense. deadshot is lacking CTR and dmg bonus.
@fangel
those costs are for the crafting method. as you might have guessed, I prefer not to use that, due to the massive time I would have to invest.
but even then, I would not pay 500$. crafting or rolling some and then selling what I get means I get money that I can use to craft or roll some more items. in total I would most likely spend far less money.
I might even get lucky and make a profit, if I get some nice UVs.
you forgot to factor in that the SL also gives you cr and an SL mat, which decreases the cost.
also, if dutch-oven shows up and I can make a trade with him, the possible costs are halved and the chances are upped.
not that I would need to do that, as I would then have enough curse resist for now.
I just don't really follow through with the idea of "I need radiants, so I'll spend a bunch of money on gear so I can spend more money on keys so I can get radiants". Taking out one of the steps reduces the cost massively (not spending money on gear = buying radiants. Not buying keys = good gear to farm radiants), but putting them together just compounds the cost.
In the end, four weapon slots and two trinket slots will carry you through UFSC. I did a two-knight run through there a while back in valkyrie + divine veil and only lost my ER once on the first floor.
But in general, shadow lairs typically don't make up for the cost going in. With UFSC, if you can sell the market-saturated maiden's tear, maybe you'll break even, but otherwise the crown/energy cost is pretty much eh. At an 8,000:100 crown to energy ratio, your 450 energy is about 36,000 crowns. You'll probably make back 20,000 or so from the run if you ran stratum 5 as well. That's 16,000 crowns you're "losing" if you pretend radiants don't exist... Which you shouldn't, because they're so bloody rare.
Bottom line I guess that people have been saying is that buying what you want will be much more cost effective than trying to roll/craft for it.
Deadshot has universal damage bonus vs Undead, which, like someone said earlier, is pretty much 90% of UFSC (bar Trojans and Vanaduke). It's the perfect set for UFSC. Fire resist will see you burn for less time. Getting burnt for longer is much more deadly than having to run around waiting out a curse since it potetially takes out half your health if you don't have resistence.
Have you actually tried the run before? I feel like a lot of these differences you're imagining between the alternatives won't be noticeable once you're actually in there. Trust me, it's the same. Please save yourself some money.
both of you are missing the point.
I dont want gear advice, I dont want advice on how to farm.
I want advice on how to best get what I want, which is curse on firefly shade.
what you are talking about is off-topic.
now, let me point you to three more things before I stop talking about gear.
1. post 13.
I have curse low on a padded armor.
2. http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Curse
5 points of curse resist means you only have one weapon cursed.
3. post 23.
if I trade with dutch-oven, I will have a curse max padded helmet.
It sounded like your point was you wanted radiant fire crystals, and you were planning to go through the firestorm citadel shadow lair many times. You wanted armor to go through that easily, so we started walking down that way.
We were saying alternatives to spending millions of crowns for something you can easily replace.
But you just wanted to take a more expensive route down UV lane, and it sounds like you found what you needed, so good luck on your runs!
The 0.2% = 1/500 chance that you quoted should not be taken as highly precise. I would estimate the chances at about 1/10 * 1/16 = 1/160, which is three times as high. Nobody has nailed down the chances with high precision. So take them all as approximate.
For this conversation, the key theorem of probability is that your expected number of rolls before the first success is 1/p, where p is the probability of success on each roll. ("Expected" basically means "average". Of course some players will do better and some will do worse.)
So for Punching, if p = 1/500, then you expect to roll 500 times, for an expected total cost of 20,000 * 500 = 10,000,000 crowns. That's for each piece of armor.
For crafting, where p is more like 1/10 * 1/10 * 1/16 = 1/1600, you expect to craft 1600 times? You can work out the cost, including an estimate of how much money you can recover by selling your by-products.
Another question is why you want curse+4 armor.