So has anyone estimated or gotten a SnarblePup within a set amount of boxes? Is it more common or more rare in chances?
Snarb Chances
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 12:22
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 12:30
#2
I know
Yes I've already acknowledged that, but I just wonder how common it is before I waste my cash on boxes aside from other things, Ah, at least it'll all go to the can after the Def Leopard concert.
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 12:34
#3
Adding on
It's 3% officially.
And that means we'll see a few snarble pups without them being everywhere.
Three Rings done good.
EDIT: You are not ensured a snarblepup after any amount of boxes. That is how RNG works with these boxes. However buying $100 of boxes would get you close to the 1 in 33 chance that you should statistically get one out of.
If you really want one, spend that much on energy and buy it from another player. If you want to unbox things, then you need to be okay with the possibility that you can just unbox ancient devious horns and only that for 28 boxes.
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 13:07
#4
Boo
I know what the statistics are but I'm talking about a luck and none ensured chance to add confidence because I'm all bent out on last boxes back then XD I spent so much on confections, 8 mitts, no mix master, one septillion chef costumes
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 13:25
#5
Actually, 100 dollars would
Actually, 100 dollars would give you about a 57% chance of receiving one or more snarbolax sprites, provided you're buying in bulk and end up with 28 of them.
To give yourself a >95% chance of getting one, you'd need to open around a hundred or so prize box... but you're fairly likely to get one with even a small purchase-
1 prize box = 3% = 1 in 33 people
5 prize boxes = 14% = 1 in 7 people
14 prize boxes = 34% = 1 in 3 people
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 13:22
#6
Why don't they just let us
Why don't they just let us buy whatever for 5$.
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 13:33
#7
also: expect 33 or 34 tries
To add to what Fangel and Fehzor said, here is another way of thinking about it.
Suppose you say to yourself, "I am going to open boxes until I get a Snarbolax sprite, no matter how many boxes that takes. When I get my first one, I will stop." At that point, you expect to open 33 or 34 boxes.
I use "expect" in its technical meaning --- basically "average luck". Some players will get lucky and succeed on their 4th try. Some players will get unlucky and succeed on their 56th try. Some players will get really unlucky and succeed on their 1,000,000th try. But a player with average luck will succeed on his 33rd or 34th try.
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 14:53
#8
@Fehzor
This is the answer I was looking for, thanks.
Thu, 06/25/2015 - 16:58
#9
Yeah the 3% odds are a super
Yeah the 3% odds are a super improvement compared to the 1% before. I only bought 5 boxes and got the pup on my fourth.
Then theres my guild master who unboxed 3 of them. If you really want one, the odds are worth the investment.
It's estimated to be 3%.
So, on average, 3 out of every 100 spritely prize boxes would unbox a snarby pup, whereas, the rarest items of the previous promotional boxes had a chance of 1% or an estimate of 1 out of 100 every box.