Spiral Knights - Mystery Prize Boxes for Retired Cosmetic Items.

Mystery Prize Boxes for Retired Cosmetic Items.

14 replies [Last post]

Thu, 12/31/2015 - 02:27

Klipik-Forum

Inspired by:
-Node 113105: Ultimate Costume Shop by Holy-Nightmare -- Fangel's comment #7.
-League of Legends Mystery Gifts.

So this idea is fairly simple. In the history of SK, there have been 66 prize boxes according to the wiki page. Of those 65, boxes (57 only obtainable by using real-word currency,) only 5 are currently available. There are also 8 Lockbox variants, of which only Mirrored and one other are available at any given time. This means that most cosmetic items are unavailable for purchase except from the limited number unboxed when they were available.

OOO should introduce a Mystery Prize Box, permanently available and purchasable for $5. Buying the Mystery Box would give you one of the previously available prize boxes. For example, I buy a Mystery Box and it gives me a Hunter Prize Box. That box's drop table has the items that were in the Hunter promotion. This would be a good way to slightly increase the amount of old costumes and accessories without tanking their prices, while counteracting the fact that those old costumes get rarer and rarer every day with the players who possess them becoming inactive or even deleting their accounts and items permanently.

Thu, 12/31/2015 - 13:58

Fangel

I'm for this

I mean you've quoted me in the OP with pretty much the same words, but yeah. Having a sort of mysterious prize box would be wonderful, and heck, would be great because if it worked with all future promos too (meaning if you buy a box before a new promo when the new promo comes out there's a small chance the box you bought before the promo can be one from the new promo). Heck, you could even have mystery boxes include surprise boxes from previous years, meaning you open two boxes to get a box, since surprise boxes are yearly and have all promos up until that point, meaning surprise box 2014 won't have gem promos.

With the addition of mystery boxes, it opens up one more avenue to buy boxes in, and since there's no bundle for them (outside of maybe when they're introduced), it still encourages players to buy into promos they're interested in.

I would say having mystery boxes be purchaseable individually for $5 or bundled with $10 energy purchases, both, would be a good way to bring in a bit more income while keeping players not as angry at the same time.

Fri, 01/01/2016 - 10:09

Sonosuke

I like Sonic Unleashed, screw you

I'd love to have this. Gives me a much better chance to get the Storm armor and Katastrophe Prize Box's Shadow costumes than trying to find and bid for them on the AH.

Fri, 01/01/2016 - 13:01

Sonofgunz

Destruction of economy

So that box will wipe out the prices for all those high tier costumes, as the supply of them are able to increase continuously.

You are really going to wipe those collectors, who you most likely aren't.

Fri, 01/01/2016 - 14:51

Klipik-Forum

Actually saving economy

Unless someone is spending ridiculous amounts of money to get those high-tier costumes, the supply increases at an incredibly slow rate. Remember, you have to factor in the fact that you're RNG-ing what box you get, too. Say, for example, you wanted to unbox an Arcane Halo. You'd not only have to get the 1.5% drop chance from the Nemesis Prize box, but also the 1.92% chance of getting the box in the first place. That's a .03% chance, or 1/3,000 Mystery boxes, to get that specific item. Sure, it would happen, and the prospect of it happening would decrease prices somewhat, but I think it'd be bearable. Also, if the price of über expensive cosmetics comes down slightly, that means they seem less out of reach for the people for the people who aren't collectors, and more people would be willing to earn the cr/buy the CE to obtain them. That means more money flowing through the economy which is good for the health of the game and, by extension, everyone.

Fri, 01/01/2016 - 15:05

Deleted-Knight

I agree with Sonofgunz. It would be nice if you can make an accessory/costume sink as well.

Perhaps allow players to buy empty prize boxes for cheap (like 50 energy) and pack unwanted accessories/costumes inside them. A box with 10 items can be sealed as a "second-hand prize box". Two second-hand prize boxes can be traded in for a mystery prize box.
Players can also use second-hand prize boxes as a nice way to do mystery gifting.

Fri, 01/01/2016 - 19:10

Klipik-Forum

That would almost definitely make the problem Son is talking about even worse, since you would take all the common items and effectively smush them together into rare items, making those rare items even less rare.

Sat, 01/02/2016 - 10:38

Umbra-Lunatis

Perhaps a separation of

Perhaps a separation of Mystery Boxes by typing:

Boundless Force box: Contains a Storm, Rage, and Frenzy item pool.
Status Alignment box: Contains a Blazing, Surge, Shocking, Wicked, Glacial, Polar, Stunning, and Venomous item pool.
Celestial Grandeur box: Contains Solstice and Equinox items, with a slightly reduced chance for UV tickets.
Guild Ornamentation box: Contains every type of promotional guildhall furnishing.
Crystalline Zodiac box: Contains what will eventually be all 12 gemstone promotions.

Possibly even a combination of two or three boxes. Just so players will vaguely know what type of item they're getting.

Sat, 01/02/2016 - 11:31

Fangel

The idea that this will make rare items more common is pretty much a moot point. For example, yes, you could in fact get a mixmaster from these boxes. As more and more prize boxes are released however, the chance of getting that one item that you want from that one promo forever ago is pretty low.

As Klipik said before, a 1/3000 chance of getting an item. That's 15 grand of real money being sunk into the game in order to statistically get the item. In the time that much money has been invested in the game by one player for said item they could have just as easily bought the item off of someone or, heck, seen it in a flash sale for like, what, $10 worth of energy?

The idea is that this is another way to spend money on the game while also allowing older promos to make a comeback throughout the year.

And as for that secondhand box idea, pretty sure people would just package hallow items by the truckload into boxes and be paying 100 energy - essentially a vanaduke run - for a $5 value randomized prize box. That's just not all that viable.

Sat, 01/02/2016 - 13:07

Deleted-Knight

pretty sure people would just package hallow items by the truckload into boxes and be paying 100 energy - essentially a vanaduke run - for a $5 value randomized prize box. That's just not all that viable.

That's the point. When people start dumping Hallow/Frosty items by the truckload, the value of those items increase and they become better crown sinks. When a "rare" costume/accessory becomes excessive, they become worse crown sinks, but they also become more likely to be dumped into second-hand prize boxes.

As long as OOO keeps cranking out new exclusive items, this is actually quite sustainable. Players have incentive to dump items that make horrible crown sinks in hopes of acquiring items that make better crown sinks. Note that players have a higher likelihood of receiving something not so valuable than receiving something very valuable from a single mystery prize box. However, in either case, they still have to remove 20 non-valuable items from the economy.

You have to look at the big picture when thinking about macroeconomics.

Sat, 01/02/2016 - 13:27

#10

Deleted-Knight

Perhaps an example will help

Currently, Prismatic Bolted Vees are next to worthless because of the glitch event. For the sake of argument let's say Surge Wings are the most rare and valuable items on the market. Suppose there are 10,000 PBVs and only 50 SWs in the game at the moment. PBVs are the item of choice for mystery box farmers.

In the next couple weeks, merchants trade in a total of 5000 PBVs in return for 250 mystery prize boxes. To consider the worst case scenario (which is highly unlikely), let's say each prize box guaranteed a SW. That means a total of 250 SW has been added to the economy.
Before: 10,000 PBV and 50 SW
After: 5,000 PBV and 300 SW

Clearly PBV is still far less valuable. So let's say people continue to dump them. 4000 more PBVs are dumped, creating 200 more SW.
Initial: 10,000 PBV, 50 SW
Final: 1000 PBV, 500 SW

I don't know about you, but I think the final state is much better for the economy. PBVs are no longer worthless and SW are still pretty valuable. Because the difference in supply is not that far off, their prices are determined largely by player demand.

Sat, 01/02/2016 - 13:59

#11

Fangel

See I know what you're getting at, but the whole thing is hallow/frosty items can be farmed during their events with no money being passed around. These events would become "mystery box farming" events rather than being about the event.

Additionally, you are creating another CE sink - not good.

In your scenario, the initial 250 mystery prize boxes would take out 25k CE from the economy. By the end of your example, 45k CE has been dumped. That's $100 of CE being dumped out of the economy, and there simply isn't enough motivation to purchase more CE.

Now this sort of thing might work better if it acted as a crown sink or perhaps if we had more box/energy bundles going around, but in the current state of the game we sort of want to avoid CE sinks as best as possible. While I do like the idea a bit this also inadvertently adds a real-life price on secondhand prize boxes, and thus the contents. While alone 20 headbands would probably make someone very sad, grouped up together they equate to ~$5 USD.

I would instead recommend being able to trade in a "complete" set for a mystery box, or to make a secondhand box. What do I mean by that? Instead of dumping 20 of the same old in a box, you need to dump one item from each category, ignoring the aura slot and maybe armor bottom. You need costume helmet, costume armor, and helmet top, helmet side, helmet front, helmet back, armor front, and armor back accessories. Compile them all into a box, bam, secondhand prize box. You could additionally put 1*-5* unbound armors into the box instead of costume parts, and if armor or costumes put into the box have an item already attached to them then they fill the required slot (hallow draped armor + hallow crest fulfills costume armor and armor front accessory requirements).

This system would essentially cut one to two entire costumes out of the system in exchange for one box. You could also use this system to gift an entire costume set to a friend, or sell it on the auction house, in which the box description will list all the themes the items in the box have (full hallow would make it a secondhand hallow box. Every item being a different theme would make it a mixed secondhand box, and would list all themes alphabetically in the description with a little xN next to each theme, indicating how many items are each theme with N being number of items). You don't know what you're going to get, but you know what box(es) it came from, and how many items from each box are involved. You also are getting a technical full costume at a single price! Great for potential giveaways.

Sat, 01/02/2016 - 16:24

#12

Deleted-Knight

Fangel, your CE argument

Fangel, your CE argument undermines your crown argument.
If people purchase 250 mystery boxes directly, that's $1250 being spent, which is a lot more than the $100 needed to go the CE route. I don't see why people would be unmotivated to spend less money for the same goods. Having the same people purchase boxes directly isn't going to put more CE in the F2P market. On the other hand, if they purchase CE to make second-hand boxes, they might have some left over which is then sold.

While alone 20 headbands would probably make someone very sad, grouped up together they equate to ~$5 USD.
Again, that's the whole point. You are assuming headbands are worth crap. But if everybody started doing this, the number of headbands in the system will plummet. People will have harder time finding cheap headbands to stuff into second-hand boxes. They will start looking the next cheapest thing that is in large supply.
At some point the value of the items being dumped will push the face value of second-hand boxes above $5. If we assume $5 ~ 1500 CE. This will happen when the market price of each item averages more than 75 CE.

I like the idea of putting complete sets in second-hand boxes. However, I don't think we should restrict sets to a single flavor. That would really slow down the item-sinking process. Each box could contain 1 helmet costume, 1 armor costume, and 3 accessories. Now you need to trade in 4 second-hand boxes per mystery box, which would bump the total CE fee to 400. I think 400 CE and 20 costume/accessories is reasonable for a $5 mystery box.

Also, sorry Klipik for hijacking your thread!

Sun, 01/03/2016 - 12:48

#13

Klipik-Forum

The value of Frosty, Hallowed, and ugly common accessories will never go very high, no matter how few of them there are. Ugly costumes/accessories it's simply because no one really wants them, and Hallowed and Frosty everyone knows come back in unlimited supply every year. And I don't mind, I like the fact that I started a discussion. :)

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 01:16

#14

Fangel

Well let's see

The point I was getting at with the CE argument is that it's a lot easier to spend CE in the current state of Spiral Knights than it is to buy it. The likelihood of the average player saying "yeah, I'll buy some energy purely to turn it into a randomized prize box" is pretty low when they can just as easily say "hey i can run vanaduke 3 times and make a randomized prize box". While money-wise it is appealing, the system simply isn't going to be caught by the average player. A CE sink is a CE sink, no matter how theoretically easy it is to pull out of a CE drought - it would be easy to get CE prices to drop if we had incentive to buy CE, but it's much easier to spend the crowns you've been accumulating to get the same CE.

If you're gonna make the 3 accessories thing, they all have to be in different slots. The idea is to prevent someone from jamming 10 headbands into a box and calling it good. When you need to vary the items it means you've had to work a bit harder to get there anyways.

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Mystery Prize Boxes for Retired Cosmetic Items.