I currently have a Winter Grave with ASI High on it. However, since my default loadout already gives me max ASI on all guns, I figure having CTR or even Damage vs Gremlins would be more helpful. Since it feels bad to just throw away ASI High, I figured I should just roll these as a 2nd UV. However, I got into a debate with a friend about some calculations I was doing.
I figure that since there's 7 different UV types I can get on a gun other than ASI, and I only want 2 of them, the chances of succeeding are 2/7 or 28.5% on the first roll, ~50% on the second roll (5/7 * 5/7 = 25/49), and ~63% on the third roll. My friend is saying that there's no way the odds can be this high, so I went and looked into it in-depth from a mathematical perspective. I made this quick write-up, and I wanted to see if anyone had any input on it. Am I horribly wrong? Is my math sound? Does SK have hidden biases (like that rumour that if Punch gives out a good UV, he won't give out another for some amount of time or rolls for that particular Haven instance)?
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1izr1JK6uX2tPhIYuFxU05jGUazOpcB9W5Cpc...
Sorry if it's hard to read, it's just a single-draft quick write-up I did
You may want to read this:
http://wiki.spiralknights.com/User:Jdavis/UVs#Second-UV_Strategies
It tells you how to put a second UV on an item that already has one UV. The guide as a whole is unfinished, but this section is solid.
I figure that since there's 7 different UV types I can get on a gun other than ASI, and I only want 2 of them, the chances of succeeding are 2/7 or 28.5% on the first roll, ~50% on the second roll (5/7 * 5/7 = 25/49), and ~63% on the third roll. My friend is saying that there's no way the odds can be this high
Assuming you lock the first UV (and you'd be crazy not to), the chances are 1 / 7 for getting the second UV. But it is probably +1, not the +3 or +4 you were hoping for. After that it just gets worse. Let me know if I've misunderstood you.