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No Orbs

6 replies [Last post]
Sun, 04/17/2016 - 10:09
Qvantom

Hello, I am Qvantom, and I had a break from Spiral Knights.
I know that it has been bought out by Grey Havens ( correct me if I am wrong )
but something changed.
I get No Orbs, I don't know why.
I have done about 10 Arcade runs, on elite and lots of FSC runs on elite, and I got 0 orbs.
Do any of you know why?
Thanks.

Sun, 04/17/2016 - 10:12
#1
Veridiandynamics's picture
Veridiandynamics
Just simply bad luck

You will eventually find orbs. Its only a matter of time.

Sun, 04/17/2016 - 10:12
#2
Lasershield's picture
Lasershield
Well

Well, It wouldn't be spiral knights forums without one of these popping up at least monthly.
...

What are you waiting for Bopp

Sun, 04/17/2016 - 10:13
#3
Lasershield's picture
Lasershield

Double butt

Sun, 04/17/2016 - 10:24
#4
Qvantom
Laser

I don't think this is common, I get 0 orbs even though I play a lot of missions ( all on elite )

Sun, 04/17/2016 - 10:50
#5
Bopp's picture
Bopp
well

I have done about 10 Arcade runs, on elite and lots of FSC runs on elite, and I got 0 orbs.

We'd need more detail, to be able to pin down how improbable your results are.

For example, let's ignore the Arcade part for a moment, because the orb chances depend on exactly which levels you've run. And let's say, for the sake of argument, that "lots of FSC runs" means 10 FSC runs. And let's say that the game is tuned so that you get 0.17 orbs per FSC run on average. (There is a huge amount of uncertainty in this figure.)

Then you expect to have gotten 1.7 orbs in your 10 FSC runs. According to the Poisson distribution with λ = 1.7, the probability of getting k = 0 orbs on those 10 runs is λ^k e^-λ / k! = 18%. So your FSC experience is not surprising. Sorry.

Even if you got something more like a 1% probability, I still wouldn't be convinced that anything was amiss, unless you also told me that you had decided to make this thread before ever doing your study. I mean, for every player who makes a thread like this, there are 100 players who didn't make such a thread, because they found orbs and didn't have anything to complain about. In other words, players will sometimes get unlucky with orbs, and sometimes you will be among those players, and sometimes you won't. This effect is called observational bias.

The good news is that by running FSC and the Arcade you have earned a bunch of crowns, which you can use to buy orbs outright.

Sun, 04/17/2016 - 10:51
#6
Qvantom
Oh Ok

I thought I was the only one, thanks for taking your time to answer.

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