Spiral Knights - What Happened to the CE Market O

What Happened to the CE Market O_O?

26 replies [Last post]

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 23:13

Shinko

Legacy Username

Woah wait, did the addition of spiral knights to steam really drop the CE price to 3.3k!!??!? Or were there some other factors? That's the only thing that really changed as far as I can see so maybe a huge influx of people using a service that's been mostly pay-to-play for a long time is the cause ._. This feels a bit wrong for CE sellers =/, but I assume that the prices will eventually even out at ~5k again once the new players get tired of spending money on this game so it'll even out for the few weeks we spent at 6k+.

I hadn't checked the CE market in several nights b/c I was saving crowns for recipes to merchant or learn, but with CE down to 3.3k I couldn't resist :P gained a lot of CE tonight <3.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 23:22

Milkshanks

This is just right to the

This is just right to the veteran CE sellers (at least to those who manipulated the market to push it to over 7k)

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 23:28

Quasirandom

It's not market manipulation.

It's not market manipulation. It's called supply and demand. And it's a temporary blip brought on by an inrush of new Steam players.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 00:11

Milkshanks

It's market manipulation when

It's market manipulation when they make over than two hundred offers at the same time making a wall on the CE market (like they tried to do to hold the prices) pushing up the prices.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 00:33

Majikos

@ Shanks

Trying to push up the prices doesn't make much more than a temporary difference - with so many people in the marketplace there are plenty who're willing to undercut the price walls to make a quick sale.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 01:08

Kawaiido

The only thing that bugs me

The only thing that bugs me about this is why I didn't buy up Crowns like mad when it was still in the 6K margin. I could have made a killing.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 01:56

Majikos

@ Kawaiido

Probably because the general expectation was that CE prices would continue to rise, as they had been for several weeks.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 03:27

Wtfbot

@majic13

>Probably because the general expectation was that CE prices would continue to rise, as they had been for several weeks.

Do you really think that speculation has anything to do with the market prices?

If anything we just got more demand for CE( Albeit it's from people who are welcome to the idea of buying games so they buy their CE) but peoples "Expectations" have nothing to do with the price. It's all supply and demand in this case.

Before we had low supply, the amount of CE being brought in on a daily basis was lower then the Demand was demanding so the price went up as it became a much needed and ever increasingly scarce commodity. All while Crowns were being generated at an alarming rate which caused rampant inflation and a decline of the crowns value. This all ties together as people like myself were willing to pay 7k per 100 CE cause I was still making a profit( a fairly small profit but I could do it. This forced the price as high as myself and many other people like myself could afford. You noticed right before 7k it was pretty stagnant as that was right on the brink of not being profitable anymore.

This isn't speculation, I lived it. I'm a free to play player, and I support this game by purchasing from people who pay to play. I'm the working horse of this game. I bring in more minerals, materials,recipes, and crowns then most people can even fathom. The things I had to do to turn a profit were incredible. I hustled my way to my first 5* item, my Divine Avenger. That was a mountain to climb, one that with the price of CE that high it almost looked impossible.

So what happened.

I know what happened, and I've got proof.

I run jelly runs a lot, and I know when I'm playing with a pay to player. I know, cause their revive bills get up to 1000ce and I cringe cause it's not worth it. Those people have no idea what they can do with 1000ce. In my hands I could turn that into a fortune, and I have before. But I've seen a sharp increase of these people, of people who "Just started a few days ago." Who are in full Dusker and half 4* weapons, something that took me weeks to accomplish. These people have supplied the market with a copious amount of CE, and the amount of "insta-Sellers" as dramatically increased. So much so that they catered single handily to the demand of the free to play population. And with their Insta-sells and Insta-Buys via the Trade tab they have drove down the price.

The more CE being insta-sold and insta-bought the less the buy and sell offers will be. The more people running Buy and Sell offers should be lower then that of the "Insta" crowed in order for the price to be at a fair place.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 03:40

Algol-Sixty

It's market manipulation when

It's market manipulation when they make over than two hundred offers at the same time making a wall on the CE market (like they tried to do to hold the prices) pushing up the prices.

No one has been above to move the market any significantly amount for any significant time that wasn't a direction other than the way the market was heading without buying/selling quite a bit of CE. There are forum/market trolls that claim they drove the price up (or sometimes down), but they are like someone who splashed water downstream and claimed they made the river.

People who do end up buying/selling a bunch of CE in their attempt to manipulate the market aren't manipulating the market, they are changing the supply/demand.

The cr<->CE exchange rate is very much related to the game design. New players are the ones that need more crowns than they have accumulated, veteran players don't. In a few weeks, it will go back to the normal 6-8k. The demand for CE now is significantly higher because it is low enough that most players can make a profit off their runs, once the exchange rate goes back up, people will go back to running only mist and crafting as much as they can on mist.

Stock up on CE now, the prices won't last.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 03:45

Majikos

@ SoSpecial

I was answering Kawaiido's mostly-rhetorical question as to why he didn't sell off CE for CR when it was at 6600CR per 100CE.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 23:41

#10

Shinko

Legacy Username

Stock up on CE now, the prices won't last.

>Stock up on CE now, the prices won't last.

That's exactly what I predict. This is kinda what would've happened with a big energy give away event, but it's a little different. First: in an energy give away event the energy would eventually be used up and flow out of the market in crafting. With this change the number of new players flowing in may slow down, but it will probably flatten out at a higher average new player's per day number than before. The causes for this will be word of mouth and the aftereffects of becoming one of the few f2p games offered on steam. The retention rate for new players will also change. I doubt even the most affluent of steam players will be willing to spend $20 a week on this game, and they will eventually quit. With more players coming in there will also be more players leaving because they don't like the game. If the retention rate of new players and the quitting rate of old players doesn't go up enough to cover for the increased average number of players joining, the player pool will grow at a rate higher than it did before.

I *think* that this will be the case (player pool will eventually average out at a growth rate higher than it started at before steam). If it is, what do you think the effect will be on the average CE market price? Where as before it went all the way up to the profit line at 7k, do you think a larger number of players will make it go even higher (increased demand by more f2p players) or will it go down (increased supply by rich consistent CE buyers)?

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 01:30

#11

jooozek

Legacy Username

I made a killing yesterday

I made a killing yesterday selling my previously all useless materials, made like 15k CE. I LOVE YOU STEAM PLAYERS

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 09:34

#12

Senshi

Legacy Username

Speculation...

My feeling is that the -number- of players won't make a difference, and although Steam players are more used to pay-to-play games, they aren't going to want to shell out $20 every week or two... so... once the free mist energy tanks and the steam-player starter packs start to wear out, energy prices will head back to the profitability line, and probably hold there.

It simply costs too much real money for most people to pay $20 to get into T3 (that'll pay your CE crafting costs only on two weapons, helmet, armor, and shield up to 5*), $20 again to rebuild the set with UVs, $20 again to build special scenario sets for particularly challenging T3 strata... and $10/month (or more) for extra playtime... and besides, once you -have- all the 5* gear you're looking for, crowns are largely valueless and you'll have plenty for recipes by the time you decide to try a new build, especially running on mist + cash-bought CE your crowns build up tremendously fast. (People that spend a fortune in the AH don't change this equation either because those crowns mostly go back into another player's pockets... )

Without many times more new players getting the starter kit than old players (or a change to crafting costs or an addition of crowns sinks, etc.) CE prices will never drop so precipitously again. The basic ratio of paying to free players may be a little higher now, but most paying players are going to be sometimes-pay not pure cash bought CE. So prices may not return to their highs... but they'll certainly head that way as the ratio of 'old' and 'new' players goes back to what it was with the steam players that stick around being here long enough to spend out their starter packs.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 10:32

#13

Jaouad

Legacy Username

Njthug is probably crying now

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 11:20

#14

ninjapuppet

Legacy Username

is there an application or

is there an application or website set up to track the live energy exchange rate? i.e. something that can track the change in market price over minutes/hours/days/weeks, and show up trends etc?

that would be really useful, i would have thought someone must have made one already.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 15:18

#15

Richy

Going to have to hoard energy

Going to have to hoard energy until prices go up high again. People crying about people manipulating the market are stupid. It is based on supply and demand, anyone that complains about how Three Rings implements a hard currency and soft currency isn't smart enough to see the genius in it, or they just like to complain even though they are playing for free.

Also, quit making threads about CE prices there has been 2,000 of them now and it is getting annoying! Use common sense if the price drops there is more people selling energy than needed to buy it. Derrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrppppppppppppp

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 19:25

#16

Captain-Teemo

I think the only reason the

I think the only reason the ce market was able to be driven up to 7k / 100ce was because the patch that bound crafted gear and bumped ce prices made many players QUIT spiral knights. Less supply of ce and cr allows smaller forces to manipulate it. The market was driven up purposefully, it was not natural inflation.

Since the population boom we are seeing the gross population out powering the previous market manipulators leaving the game at what the market really has for supply and demand.

I remember the threads - "why do I want your crowns?"

Well it's simple - all those recipes and materials cost crowns.

With the lower ce costs I'm easily able to sustain diving, but it's actually a chore to get the cr up to buy a recipe now.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 20:01

#17

Loki

Legacy Username

@Shosuko

You're correct.

The market, whether people want to actually believe or not, -was- being manipulated by a small amount of people before this happened. You would see their fake offers and whatnot all the time, which drove prices up.

Even when Steam players started joining you could see these people desperately trying to keep prices up, but obviously failed at it. The prices just couldn't be controlled any longer by them since there were many more paying players, and those who didn't mind selling for much cheaper.

Do I expect them to rise again? Yes, but not as high as it was before this unless the Spiral/Steam population takes a big dip in numbers.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 20:15

#18

Algol-Sixty

I remember the threads - "why

I remember the threads - "why do I want your crowns?"

Well it's simple - all those recipes and materials cost crowns.

With the lower ce costs I'm easily able to sustain diving, but it's actually a chore to get the cr up to buy a recipe now.

Uh, recipe costs went *down* with the patch that also raised the CE costs of crafting. Once you can regularly run T2 and JK runs, crowns are the easy part, getting the CE is the hard part.

it was not natural inflation.

I'm not sure what you mean by "natural", but it is caused by the game design being changed to make crowns not worth as much and CE being worth more. The limiting factor is the point where people shift from using lots of CE to run gates and use mist as much as possible by playing less per day. Sure, you need CE to craft so there will be that demand, and if you are skilled and knowledgeable enough you can make a profit off of runs even at 7k cr/100CE, but the average player just stop playing as much.

In a couple of weeks as the new steam players understand the game better, CE prices will go right back up to 6k-8k.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 22:52

#19

Captain-Teemo

Well - current trend is

Well - current trend is actually still downwards... If they were to rise, I think 4k is about where they'll sit...

Honestly cr aren't that easy to get, and are still very important. Buying from auction house you're talking 30-50k for a 5* recipe, 15-20k for a 4*, and 20k+ for a 3* crafted item. That is 65-100k not including energy to craft or materials to obtain a single 5* item.

The best run in the game for crowns is jk, which nets about 6k of straight cr, that is 10-20 jk runs to pull up the crowns for just the recipes and precrafted 3*. 10-20 successful ones, after you've obtained good gear. Without good gear it'll take even more.

My point is that it is a service to BOTH PARTIES to have this energy exchange. This isn't p2p giving charity as if f2p ppl are begging for ce... All of my market exchanges are cr posted for the ce buyer to take, not the other way around. This means the ce buyers are taking my offer of cr, I put in the time grinding and exchange a portion of the crowns for a block of ce to either grind again or craft off of.

It's a symbiotic relationship which is taxed when either party is cut out of their profits. At 7k you're taking 90-100% of the straight cr profit of a dive, that is ridiculous and taxing to the grinding player, especially considering ce is so cheap, it's 5 bucks for 1600. Do the math - that is approx 112k for 5 bucks... 112k is 90% of the straight cr profits from 20 jk runs... That isn't benefiting anyone but the ce seller, which drives ppl out of the market.

Once ce prices topped 5k I just bought it from my credit card, while backing off to 1 dive a day. Now that it's back down to a mutually profitable trade I'm back to grinding ce all day while ce buyers line up to grab my cr (I have yet to finish a dive without all my cr on the market being picked up) To me, this makes the current ce:cr exchange the "correct" one as the majority of parties are obviously satisfied.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 22:48

#20

Splinter

CE shall rise again! Don't

CE shall rise again! Don't worry this is just a busy weekend due to steam - once peope slow the buying of CE with cash, you'll see prices rise back to 6 or 7 I bet, maybe higher. Eventually the addition of new players slows and we get what we had last week. 6.5 kCE prices.

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 23:09

#21

Negimasonic

Someone start searching for

Someone start searching for another mega gaming community to join us in about two months :3

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 02:34

#22

Majikos

CE speculation.

I'm not sure if the trend's still downwards - I've been following the market and it's been fairly steady around the 3300 CR mark, plus or minus a hundred. The lowest I've seen the buy price is 3200 CR, and the sell price hasn't been much higher than 3500 CR for the last day or two. So it's probably not going to get much lower than it is at present.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 02:56

#23

ninjapuppet

Legacy Username

i think the thing is steam

i think the thing is steam players like me see microtransactions as just part of the fun, £1.52 is very little to pay for 750 energy, and which with the crown prices at 3.5k cr per 100ce, is worth 24,500cr with 50ce over. i think when some of the new players get bored with their shiny new thing they will wander off and the price will go up again, but probably not to the point it was at before the new players arrived, there will still be some of us about.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 03:00

#24

Majikos

@ ninjapuppet

That's true. The microtransactions are a pretty well-established part of the Steam experience from what I can tell - certainly in TF2 with the Mann Co. crates and suchlike. Spiral Knights has the advantage that your microtransaction will definitely get you something you want, rather than being a gamble that could land you with a bunch of crappy unwanted hats or whatever. :D

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 03:30

#25

Captain-Teemo

This is one of the things

This is one of the things that always baffled me about ppl driving up the cost of ce on the market...

It's like 0.33 usd per 100 energy and ppl think it's worth 90-100% of an hour's grind... That's pretty crazy imo.

CE is dirty cheep, I think OOO is charging a fair price for ce even considering how much you need to play.

Sun, 06/19/2011 - 11:30

#26

Shinko

Legacy Username

>is there an application or

>is there an application or website set up to track the live energy exchange rate? i.e. something that can track the change in market price over minutes/hours/days/weeks, and show up trends etc?

that would be really useful, i would have thought someone must have made one already.

@ ninjapuppet

Without a way to access the game's servers and query for the current CE offers a site/app that can automatically keep track of CE price trends would be impossible. Any website/application that does this would either need to hack OOO's servers and get the prices from there (illegal) or have someone manually update the price (time consuming and slow updating). If OOO were to allow some developer access to the CE market in the game to gather the data it would be possible, but I doubt OOO would do such a thing.

If you wanna keep track of the market then do so with data you collect yourself. Go on the market everyday at the same time (or multiple times) and record the highest bid. You can then parse your own data to make your own conclusions. I'm sure there's some people who already do this, but it's not something that can be easily published. If you do this the best thing to publish will be your conclusions and predictions based on the market analysis you conducted.

Search

What Happened to the CE Market O_O?