Spiral Knights - Rarity drop chances decrease after you replay the same mission too many times?

Rarity drop chances decrease after you replay the same mission too many times?

7 replies [Last post]

Sat, 09/03/2016 - 10:33

Vidimiy

So i am looking for people to volunteer (including me) to do a mission OVER AND OVER AGAIN for like 50-100 times to see of the chances of getting rarities actually drops if you replay the mission too many times ... Keep in mind the fire crystals you find from treasure boxes ... since they are the most common thing you can get out of "rarities"

Doesnt matter which mission ... but do mission like "High temperature hostage,In Cold Blood or Sewer Stash" since they have a nice amount of treasure boxes at the first floor... (also try to speedrun it so you have the best results)

Sat, 09/03/2016 - 10:36

Vidimiy

If you actually do this test

If you actually do this test post your results here

Sat, 09/03/2016 - 10:53

Bopp

could have just continued the other thread

This thread seems to be in direct response to the other active thread. You could have just posted there, but okay.

http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/116080

The venerable Lancer Knightz guild has a pretty big data set about rarities in missions. For example, they have 20 or 30 measurements for some missions.

http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Lancer_Knightz_(Guild)/Mission_Rarities

What does it matter, how many rarities you find on the first floor, if you're going to have players run the entire mission? Are you having them run the entire mission? How are you going to determine whether the rate has decreased over time? The data collector should report each run, rather than just aggregate statistics such as averages, right? You should be more specific in your protocol, or else your data will be...not very dependable.

Sat, 09/03/2016 - 11:03

Vidimiy

Do you know when were those

Do you know when were those measurements made and posted?

Sat, 09/03/2016 - 12:28

Bopp

over years

Over a few years now. If you look at the page history of their main missions page...

http://wiki.spiralknights.com/Lancer_Knightz_(Guild)/Missions

...you see that the page was created in 2013 May. And then it underwent big changes after the 2013 July 30 update, to account for difficulty levels. But Lancer Knightz keeps adding data occasionally. I know for a fact that they're sitting on a few dozen new observations, that they haven't posted yet.

Sat, 09/03/2016 - 12:57

Vidimiy

Dont you think there could be

Dont you think there could be a hidden change with the rarity drops over the year ... and no one noticed? Cause i swear to god every time i replay the same mission over and over at some point i will hardly get any fire crystals as i did when i first played the mission

Sat, 09/03/2016 - 13:08

Dats-Mah-Boi

This could be the case, but

This could be the case, but it's.not really a problem anyone else cares about enough. You'd have to test it out on your own first and demonstrate results.

Sat, 09/03/2016 - 13:26

Bopp

yes, it is possible

Dont you think there could be a hidden change with the rarity drops over the year ... and no one noticed?

The "Radiants over Time" section of the Lancer Knightz rarity page addresses exactly that kind of issue. You can't see the graph (ever since the Grey Havens handover killed all of the wiki images), but it suggests that Radiant drop rates have been pretty constant since 2014-02-26.

But yes, it is possible that rarity drop rates have changed. You could do your own study, and you might find something interesting. (But I suspect that the effect you think you're seeing is a result of observation bias or simply not enough data.)

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Rarity drop chances decrease after you replay the same mission too many times?