Spiral Knights - Odds of getting a Slime Lockbox from the Golden Prize Wheel

Odds of getting a Slime Lockbox from the Golden Prize Wheel

21 replies [Last post]

Sun, 07/02/2017 - 20:07

Goofio

I thought maybe we could start a thread to accurately determine the odds of getting a Slime Lockbox from the Golden Prize Wheel. It was easy for me to keep track of these results because this is my first Slime Casino event, and I just got the High Roller Achievement. Anyway, my results are:

Lockbox Series: 007, 008, 009
Number of rolls: 10,000
Slime Lockboxes: 6

This corresponds to roughly 0.06% chance of getting a Slime Lockbox on any particular roll. If I had to guess, I would say that the odds of getting one are currently around 0.1%.

What are your results?

Mon, 07/03/2017 - 00:47

President-Trump

I'm actually more interested in how to find a "golden prize wheel", is there any visual differences to ordinary ones, or does one have to roll once, not skip the animation and see if a box quickly "swooshes" by?

This entire box from a wheel, key to open box, and rare exclusives kind of triggers me. :(

Mon, 07/03/2017 - 01:29

Flowchart

they're all called that. So gotta check which ones have boxes by actually spinning them.

Mon, 07/03/2017 - 22:38

Ragga-Prince

In general, there are 3 kinds

In general, there are 3 kinds of Prize Wheels.

The Prize Wheels that frequently give more than 200 CR per roll. You tend to actually make money on these ones but they have a very low chance of dropping boxes.

The Prize Wheels that don't always give you a return on your CR. Sometimes they pay out less than 200 CR and but sometimes you get more. These have a little better chance at dropping boxes.

The last kind, if you want boxes that is, is the kind you should be searching for. These Prize Wheels consist mainly of Kleptolisks (the lizard things) which eventually makes you lose a lot of CR. However, these wheels have the best chance at dropping boxes.

This is what I know and what I've been told by people who are in the Casino A LOT.

Tue, 07/04/2017 - 00:54

Fangel

not quite

Historically, there have been several types of prize wheels.

There are "crown wheels". These are wheels which primarily pay out with crowns. Historical examples include:

Golden Crown Wheel - Pays out purely with golden crowns. Lowest values is 50 x 2. Rarely a kleptolisk. Includes jackpots up to 50 x 200.
Golden Crown Wheel (Modified) - Impossible to distinguish from a Golden Crown Wheel, this type can drop slime lockboxes.
Silver Crown Wheel - Pays out with any crown 10 coins or higher in value. Can give slime lockboxes, but won't always refund you 50% of your cash like the Golden Crown Wheel.
Lesser Crown Wheel - Literally gives you a single crown of all types back. Has a high chance to drop a luck potion. Can give slime lockboxes.
Odd Crown Wheel - Pays out with gold crowns that always end with an odd number. Lowest value is 50 x 1. Can give slime lockboxes.
Even Crown Wheel - Pays out with gold crowns that always end with an even number. Lowest value is 50 x 0 (kleptolisk). Can give slime lockboxes.
Wheel of Fives - Pays out with all crown types that always end with a multiple of 5. Lowest value is 1 x 5. Can give slime lockboxes.

But there are also a bunch of miscellaneous wheels as well. Examples include:

Material Wheel - Pays out with golden crowns, and depth-specific materials (or lower). Small chance for rarities.
Heart Wheel - Pays out with golden crowns (higher than normal), and also has a good chance to give hearts
Consumables Wheel - Pays out with golden crowns and occasionally a pickup (vial, barrier, health capsule). All items except health capsules are of the appropriate tier.
Double or Nothing Wheel - Pays out with either 50 x 8 crowns, or a kleptolisk
Luck Potion Wheel - Pays out with golden crowns. High chance at a luck potion consumable. Can have slime lockboxes.
Ocarina Wheel - Pays out with golden crowns. High chance at an Ocarina of Slime consumable. Can have slime lockboxes.

That's about all of them I can think of right now. The last few casinos, including the current one, seem to be using the following types of wheels: odd wheel, even wheel, golden wheel, wheel of fives.

So basically, if you're spinning on a wheel with both 50 x 2 and 50 x 3 on it, it's not a great wheel. The ones with kleptolisks have a bonus in that they contain luck potions, meaning you can try to use one of those if you've gone so long without a lockbox. I try to find a casino with at least 1 even and 1 odd wheel in it before I sit down and dedicate my life for the next hour or so to clicking a button to spin a wheel.

Tue, 07/04/2017 - 02:22

Ragga-Prince

Very informative. Definitely

Very informative. Definitely going to be using all this info the next time I go to the Casino. Many thanks.

Tue, 07/04/2017 - 13:01

Tadician

After reading Fangel's post.

After reading Fangel's post. I found a wheel that is odd but drops ocarina as well.
Since yesterday I noticed that most(if not all) wheels have been dropping a lot of ocarina and little boxes.

Tue, 07/04/2017 - 14:29

Fangel

i've noticed that too

Casinos are subject to change at any time. There are a number of wheels on there that I've missed or forgotten about.

The ocarina overdose is a relatively recent thing. They seem to be active on most wheels right now. The other patterns still remain, however. Feels like they're taking up the moderate (50 x 15 through 50 x 25) slots of the even and odd wheels, or at least the "unique" slot of the prize wheels (replacing luck potions in even wheels, for example).

These are either new wheels or a change to old wheels.

Tue, 07/04/2017 - 14:58

Tadician

Seems to me like an attempt

Seems to me like an attempt to reduce box drops. I also think they reduced good drop rates from boxes themselves(5* trinkets) but I digress.

Tue, 07/04/2017 - 15:11

Fangel

perhaps

I've also noticed an increase in the 50 x 100 jackpot from at least even wheels. I have a sneaking suspicion that boxes filled all jackpot slots on those wheels and now they have more varied jackpot items, meaning less boxes.

Honestly I'd just prefer bringing back the silver wheels or at least one of the wheels that had semi-reliable box spawns. Letting the items loose now through a massive crown sink is a great idea, and opening boxes is much more effective at sinking crowns than actually spinning wheels ever was.
(Either that or have a tiny chance to get a companion cube furnishing from the wheel instead of an ocarina of slime. There's only 1 in existence so making more of them would be cool.)

Tue, 07/04/2017 - 16:22

#10

Tadician

"There's only 1 in

"There's only 1 in existence"
What? Elaborate?

Tue, 07/04/2017 - 23:04

#11

Fangel

yup

You know the slimes the ocarina of slimes summons in the clockworks? Well, we have one over in Echo of Silence. It was put up on the auction house during one slime casino, only one of them, and I snagged it for us. If you ever catch our guild hall open, it's hiding out in the top left wing around all the cookies. It'll follow you around like the slime in the lab does.

Wed, 07/05/2017 - 04:20

#12

Tadician

Interesting. Lucky you.

Wed, 07/05/2017 - 10:02

#13

Flawedknight

I have a slightly different theory

At first I thought it was as Fangle said above -- there are different kinds of casino slots and they can be identified. but then I got tons and tons of contradictory data. I don't really want to go into the data or collection methods, but I'd thought I'd at least share the theory.

Theory time

Imagine you're a developer and have to implement server code for a casino wheel... do you implement 8 functions that do roughly the same thing or one that can represent infinite numbers of casino slots. As a software guy myself I would probably write one and have it randomly choose characteristics for each slot machine instance. As such I speculate the algorithm looks something like this.

choose crown type based on RNG # seems to be around 75% chance of getting a gold coin machine
choose crown multiplier # on the any crown type machine 5x seems to be the multiplier base (referencing the slot of fives Fangle noticed above)

Ok, so far there is a machine with a 100% chance of giving crowns at various multipliers

choose whether or not you get a ocarina
if ocarina chosen set drop rate
repeat for whammies
repeat for lock boxes
etc

This would effectively mean that slot characteristics and drop rates are random, and could not be determined by any visible criteria. The reason why I've come to this conclusion is that I've seen gold coin slots that frequently don't drop lock boxes after *thousands* of rolls. I also thought identifying multipliers on the slot would be key.... but it wasn't.

On slots where we were able to get lock boxes the rate seemed to vary greatly on one machine I had a drop rate of about 0.01% on another it was an order of magnitude worse (0.001%).

my overall data has a drop rate under 0.0001%, and I did come up with 30 something boxes still.... I think the lesson I learned is if your drop rate is too low find a new machine? Only time will tell I guess.

Wed, 07/05/2017 - 17:26

#14

Fangel

somewhat

I don't quite remember who came up with this idea, but it's the theory I'm buying into:

Knights have a hidden "luck" stat. The luck stat can be good or bad. The higher your luck the better rewards you'll get, and more often. The lower your luck, the opposite.

Luck potions obtained will either raise or lower your luck stat. This means if you're in a casino and getting a lot of boxes, do not use a luck potion. It may very well lower your luck stat.

Luck seems to be randomly generated per depth.

All of this ties in well with the wheels. If you have a low luck stat paired with a low box rate, you'll find boxes almost impossible to come across. If you have high luck with a high box rate, you'll be swimming in boxes. I know I've made over 80k profit from a single casino wheel in the past and I can attribute that to a high luck stat and a high payout on the wheel.

On top of this, box rates have been altered in the past. The 40G boxes dropped like candy, yet the 41C boxes hardly dropped at all. Early on, the 008 boxes dropped frequently, but now they seem to be almost too rare to grind for.

Wed, 07/05/2017 - 19:06

#15

Ragga-Prince

The 007, 008, and 009 rates

The 007, 008, and 009 rates seemed to have changed after the server reboot.

Wed, 07/05/2017 - 19:32

#16

Fangel

i agree

As of right now, I'm almost certain that the slime lockbox spots on the prize wheels (at least the even and odd wheels) have been replaced with 50 x 100 jackpots. Ocarinas of Slime started showing up, and suddenly those jackpots seem to be on all the lockbox wheels. They aren't super common, but the jackpots show up frequently enough to essentially be lockbox drops.

If anyone can, I would like to have a report of any slime lockbox given via the Golden Prize Wheel. If so, what other rolls are on the wheel (list of current wheels hasn't changed, we still have even + odd + fives + golden wheels active, just modified from the past) so I can give it a test myself. If my assumption is correct, whatever wheel that potentially drops slime lockboxes should not have a 50 x 100 jackpot payout.

Mon, 07/10/2017 - 10:07

#17

Flawedknight

Eh, I guess so...

Regarding the previous response on a hidden luck stat. If that's true it would largely support the theory I have above with a variable drop rate. It would just mean that the algorithm is more complicated than the simple method I theorize about above. I think your previous assessment of "this type of wheel can give boxes" lacks data and can potentially be incorrect. Or perhaps the soft wording of "can" implies only a possibility isn't a definite therefore isn't strictly incorrect.

By the same token I could say all of the wheel types that you say "can" drop boxes also holds the possibility that they cannot. Meaning that the theory above is still plausible. Lock boxes could possibly be dropped from any slot type, but that cannot be determined by any visible criteria (ie the only real way to tell is to take a couple thousand spins and move on).

Based on your Luck assessment then, perhaps the real strategy should be like this?

1) find the slots that have a reasonable crown payout
2) try a couple thousand rolls (on a couple machines)
3) if no boxes find a new casino? (rather than try a new machine)

The luck thing is a bit curious though... If I invite someone in... is his luck not the same as mine? Does this mean the different knight on the same machine has completely different odds? Does the luck extend to crown payouts? what if I go solo and reload the level... do the odds change? etc etc etc

The only reason why I brought this theory up is that my data strongly indicates that if you aren't having "luck" at a casino / slot, that "luck" seems to persist. Therefore perhaps it's best to move on more quickly to the next. I have nearly 100,000 roll data points at one instance with no drops. If possible, I'd like to help prevent others from throwing crowns into the fire as I have.

Wed, 07/12/2017 - 15:14

#18

Fangel

depends

The latest casino actually made the slime lockboxes more rare during the last two days (when the ocarinas of slime took over). If you were getting data points prior, then those are what you should be trusting since they are more in-line with all casinos previous.

When I say a wheel "can" drop a slime lockbox, it means that the slime lockbox is on the wheel. RNG determines if you get a lockbox, and if the luck stat also plays a roll, then it can seem like you aren't getting any lockboxes on a lockbox wheel.

I often see the question of "where can I get slime lockboxes?" from players, and so I direct them to the wheels I know drop them at a fair rate. Having obtained likely 200 slime lockboxes in total at this point, or possibly more (had over 100 on me at one point), I do know what I'm on about with their chances.

The best way to know if a slime lockbox is on a wheel is by getting a slime lockbox on a wheel. Them passing by also means they are on the wheel, meaning they have potential to drop. You only have to get a slime lockbox once to label a wheel able to drop them.

And I'm fairly sure your luck stat is consistent, much like how your health is, with each individual party. Leaving a party and rejoining keeps you at the same health, and I'd assume the luck stat is the same. However, starting a new party should switch it up - I've had lobbies I get little to no boxes in and started a new run just to hit the mother lode of boxes.

Fri, 07/14/2017 - 04:15

#19

Skepticraven

↑↑↓↓←→←→ba

I'll admit, I only glanced at the entire thread...
If it hasn't been mentioned yet, an item previously observed with standard lockboxes seems to hold true with slime lockboxes:
Opening a box significantly increases the chance of finding a new one.

Although I didn't actually run the statistics, I've observed that obtaining one without opening one is insanely rare (probabilities above -- 0.01-0.0001% chance).
If you open one and continue gambling, it's usually only about 25-100 spins [1-4% chance] until the next (and as long as you continue opening... you get more).

Fri, 07/14/2017 - 15:59

#20

Ragga-Prince

I opened 156 total 008s and

I opened 156 total 008s and 009s in the most recently go around of the casino, I don't think I EVER got a Slime Lockbox in the casino. Granted I didn't roll all day and night like most people, but I definitely didn't see them occurring every 25-100 rolls. I also didn't roll during the first part of the casino when boxes were actually dropping.

Tue, 08/01/2017 - 17:33

#21

Storm-Traveler

well I was spinning 20 times

well I was spinning 20 times and I got 2 so now I have 300 slime coins so I'm hoping... wish me luck and id like to buy more mial me in game same name

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Odds of getting a Slime Lockbox from the Golden Prize Wheel