I've been doing some thinking about Antiguas. But first, damage numbers from the guild training area-
Argent peacemaker
Damage (max) = 150 (or v High vs undead)
Damage (v High) = 137
Arcana-
Damage (v High) = 211
Daamge (max) = 230
2 bullets from arcana deal 460 or 422 damage. In order to beat this, we need 3 or 4 shots respectively.
So imagine that you're a scrub who has chaos, blitz and one of argent or arcana. Argent provides you with a great deal of safety, since you can dodge + shoot and shield at any time. Arcana provides you with the ability to deal higher burst damage faster. Arcana also requires a gun damage trinket or sprite effect. Argent gets max damage with just chaos set. ...this means that 3 shots would outdamage arcana in FSC, OR that you're giving up 6 health pips to make that 4 shots needed.
I think the only reason people aren't into this is because the dominant play style is offensive, not defensive. But for newer players, perhaps a defensive base play style would be healthier. When I was super new I used my argent to still be effective in FSC. It worked OK.
It's just a thought.
When you were "super-new", Argent Peacemaker was still elemental+piercing, right? In the old days, people used AP in FSC because elemental+piercing was decent against zombies and piercing+elemental was decent against Vanaduke. Then Blitz Needle took over.
I like your analysis, but it would be more complete if it incorporated timing --- specifically these comparisons:
Your post also ignores the tedium of all that AP clicking. And we could talk about other points of comparison. Arcana has knockback. Maybe there's no point in discussing the charge attacks.
If your fundamental point is "Maybe Arcana is more popular than it deserves to be", then I generally agree. Maybe people like it for PvP, and it leaks into PvE from there?