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Lootbox Chance Error?

2 replies [Last post]
Mon, 04/06/2026 - 02:07
Diosim's picture
Diosim

Taking a look at the lootbox page here:
https://wiki.spiralknights.com/Clockworks_Prize_Box_Promotion_April_2026

It looks like the probability is off? there are 7 groups of items w/ probabilities of 1, 2, 2, 5, 50, 25, and 24% chance of acquiring those items, but adding those chances up comes up to 109%?

Wed, 04/08/2026 - 08:14
#1
Mawsite
The numbers shown are loot

The numbers shown are loot pools not the actual percent chance per item, so if it says two items are a 2% chance its actually that the items are both in a loot pool that you have a 2% chance to hit.

Wed, 04/08/2026 - 10:46
#2
Diosim's picture
Diosim
Avoid attributing to malice what can simply be ignorance.

Moving forward, lets use the term "set" instead of group or pool.

I was not referring to the probability of individual items. I was referring to the probability of individual *sets* of items. It looks like the sets are mutually exclusive, that is, an item within a set is contained only within that set and not within any other sets, so if we know the probabilities of all of the sets, they should sum to 100%, but they don't. So either I'm missing something, or I suspect there's a typo? Which wouldn't be so bad if it didn't deal w/ real money

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