Is that normal that I already made >25 items (have Accomplished Alchemist for some time now) and NEVER get any UV? The only UV I have is one on my Cap that i bought this way (and transfered on later upgrades).
Is that normal that...
Fri, 07/29/2011 - 20:27
Fri, 07/29/2011 - 20:37
#2
It's possible, yeah.
Just
It's possible, yeah.
Just because we currently believe the rate to be 1 in 10 doesn't mean that you will get a UV for every 10 items you craft, it means on average every 10th item crafted between the entire playerbase will have a UV, and all of your attempts fell in the other 9.
With low rates like this it's not uncommon to get unlucky and not match the chance. Over a very large amount of attempts (say, in the range of 1000+) you'll tend towards whatever the rate actually is, but you can start off unlucky. Start worrying if you hit 100 crafts without a UV.
Fri, 07/29/2011 - 21:49
#3
i craft haze bombs very
i craft haze bombs very regularly.
One day i crafted 40, and not even one UV.
Two days ago i crafted only 5, and 4 of them were UV's.
So yes its perfectly possible.
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 00:08
#4
i think
since punch and vise were introduced, that the downgraded our chances of crafting UVs to about 1 in 20. I've talked to numerous others who tend to agree.
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 06:51
#5
yeah i crafted 25 haze bombs
yeah i crafted 25 haze bombs and only 3 had uvs, 2 weren't' good, the other was awesome of a CTR of very high
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 07:55
#6
I have no idea what you
I have no idea what you people are smoking, today I made 3 sets of "newbie startup gear" consisting of one calibur, one blaster, and one defender each, and 8 of those had UVs.
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 08:48
#7
Some numbers
Assuming the probability of getting a UV is still about 1 in 10 (the data I've seen so far supports this), the probability of getting no UVs in 25 attempts is about 7%, or 1 in 14. That's a bit unfortunate, but common enough that it will happen to quite a few people.
If philidor is right that UVs are down to 1 in 20, it's considerably more likely that you'll go 25 attempts without a UV: 28%, or a little more than 1 in 4.
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 09:27
#8
It is not normal, as it is
It is not normal, as it is not a commonly average occurance.
However, it is a perfectly logical thing.
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 09:59
#9
1st time i crafted something
1st time i crafted something it came with a UV :D
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 10:57
#10
Yes, it's possible, because
Yes, it's possible, because like every statistic or probability, the 10% figure means nothing. What does average mean, anyway, other than the statistic itself?
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 11:02
#11
IF the UV rate is still 10%
IF the UV rate is still 10% then the chance of no UVs after 25 crafts is about 7%.
However, I'm not so sure that the rate of (at least one) UV is 10% any more. The probabilities likely changed to account for double and triple UVs through crafting.
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 17:20
#12
Ya thats Possible
I know over 7 people who have done the same thing so i know that it is able to happen.
Sat, 07/30/2011 - 17:28
#13
You're lucky if you get a UV
You're lucky if you get a UV above Low. Most of my crafted stuff has low UVs. I'm just happy if I get them, but I don't pursue them to great lengths like some people do.
Sun, 07/31/2011 - 01:45
#14
I was under the impression 1
I was under the impression 1 UV = 1/10, 2 UV = 1/100, and 3 UV = 1/100. So how do we go about this?
My maths is very rusty (finished college years ago), someone correct me because I'm likely to wrong but could it be as simple as 1 UV or 2 UV or 3 UV = 1/10 + 1/100 + 1/1000 = 0.111 = 11.1%?
EDIT: Or did they change it so that it's 10% to get any UV at all?
Chance of rolling a UV = 0.1^3 + 0.1^2 * (1 - 0.1) + 0.1 * (1 - 0.1) = 0.1 = 10%
So:
3 UV = 0.1%
2 UV = 0.9%
1 UV = 9%
Sun, 07/31/2011 - 03:28
#15
@Afoxi
There isn't nearly enough reported data to tell the difference.
It's perfectly possible.