The price of mod calibrators
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:30
I was thinking about the price of mod calibrators on the Auction House, and the people who farm the Blast Network for Krogmo coins, so I decided to do some back-of-the-envelope estimates. If we make the following assumptions:
6 min per BN run
1.5+B krogs earned per run
100cr cost per run (~50% win ratio, actually less)
and
C as the number of crowns per CE
S as the sale price of a mod calibrator
N as the number of sales made
The cost of a single mod calibrator (crowns):
50/(B+1.5) x 100 -> 5000/(B+1.5)
Break-even equation:
N x [0.9xS - 5000/(B+1.5)] = B x 300 x C
Time needed to earn N mod calibrators with B boosters:
50/(B+1.5) x 6 x N
Thus, a table below sums up the number of mod calibrators you need to sell to pay off B boosters and the time T it takes to earn them, given C=53, and the sale prices indicated (here, 10, 15 and 20kcr).
...S=10k.....S=15k.....S=20k.
B..N...T.....N...T.....N...T.
1..3..360....2..240....1..120
2..5..429....3..257....2..171
3..7..467....4..267....3..200
4..8..436....6..327....4..218
5..10.462....7..323....5..230
6..12.480....8..320....6..240
Based on this cursory examination, right now with the price of mod calibrators hovering around 15k, it takes more than 5 hours of constant play to break even (buying 6 boosters), and you have to make 12 sales. Even if mod calibrators were selling at a cool 20k, it would take you 4 hours to earn the 6 mod calibrators you need. In short, investing in boosters for selling mod calibrators for profit requires one hell of a time investment. You would be far better off spending that time adventuring (i.e. an arena loop), and taking the earnings to the AH to buy a mod calibrator than farming your own. (Although, if you did sink that much time in to break even, the profits would rack up fairly quickly.)
Based on current mod calibrator prices and their trend, people are seriously undervaluing their time. I can understand buying boosters to get mod calibrators for personal use faster, but that's paying currency for time. If you're in it for profit though, the numbers would seem to suggest you're doing it wrong. Along similar lines, the only other valid reason for getting boosters is to earn krogs for Sullivan's bomberhead masks, which can't be traded.
Of course, numbers are only as good as the assumptions they are based off of. So maybe I'm just a fool for not jumping aboard the bandwagon... any thoughts?
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 17:57
#2
Mod Calibrators are probably
Mod Calibrators are probably going to drop over time though, as Krogmo Coins are going to be rewarded for pvp pretty much forever, and any player actively playing with an even spread of positions in games will break even selling them at 3k, so they'll probably drop to maybe double that over time.
Simply put, the current prices are far higher than it costs to actually get them normally; so much so that anybody that considers buying them over pvping is being silly. If the prices are 20k, and it takes say, 4 hours to earn 20k, then a player could spend those 4 hours pvping constantly and potentially earn more money over time while still getting a mod calibrator.
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:08
#3
Hmm, I think it's highly
Hmm, I think it's highly dependent on the price of mod calibrators. Assuming you have a 50% win ratio, you'll need to play 33 games of BN at a cost of 3.3 hours and 2kcr. Assuming you can net 1k profit per dungeon level, and do 4 levels in an hour, you get about 13kcr, or 15kcr if we account for BN's -2k. So at the current price of 15k, it is already about the same whether you play BN or dungeons- arguably each has their advantages, such as materials, or ease of stepping away for a moment. However, I do forsee the price of mod calibrators going down to around 10k, so in the long run dungeoneering will be better than grinding BN. That said, you are correct that I've been limiting my view; Lockdown and other PvP forms will eventually be here, and players can earn krogs that way too. I only intend to get mod calibrators for personal use, and Blast Network is fun, so I don't mind working for my krogs. But I would not consider grinding for mod calibrators to sell.
As for earning crowns on BN, you need a 70% win rate to break even, so I wouldn't count on it as a source. Even at 100%, 10 matches an hour, you only earn 800cr/hr. The krogs you earn from winning are worth more; the crowns are just a bit of icing on the cake.
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:18
#4
Where does it indicate that
Where does it indicate that looping arenas is an exploit...not commenting on if its boring...
But yes Coliseum is a blast and I made my crowns out of Mod C's before they dropped in the toilet. Why people haven't started selling trinkets instead is beyond me.
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:08
#5
Where does it indicate that
Where does it indicate that looping arenas is an exploit...
OOO has code that prevents the obvious ways to loop a level, with messages that indicate that you have to move on in the clockworks. Doing non-obvious methods to get around those checks is clearly exploiting a bug in their checking code.
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:03
#6
You can setup a program to
You can setup a program to just farm tokens when AFK, then farm tokens 24/7.
Finding AFK players in the blast arena is incredibly common; the problem is that losers get a reward, and the difference between winning and losing with 6 boosters is negligible.
Looping arenas is an exploit and boring. Blast Network is fun. The Mod Calibrators are simply a bonus.