Spiral Knights - UV roll question for math people

UV roll question for math people

6 replies [Last post]

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 15:47

BiggestLoser

Legacy Username

UV - low, medium, high, very high/low, medium, high, maximum shall not matter and will be used later as a factor, since UV's only occur once, while low, medium, etc. can occur multiple times while rolling UV's

gun, sword
1ASI
2CTR
3construct
4gremlin
5fiend
6beast
7undead
8slime

bomb
1CTR
2construct
3gremlin
4fiend
5beast
6undead
7slime

armor
1normal
2piercing
3elemental
4shadow
5stun
6freeze
7poison
8fire
9shock
10curse
(sleep)

target will be marked T
non target will be marked X

target: 2 UV fire, shock
2x roll 75k
case1 T,T
case2 X,T
case3 T,X
case4 X,X

3x roll 375k
case1 T,T,X
case2 T,X,T
case3 T,X,X
case4 X,T,T
case5 X,T,X
case6 X,X,T
case7 X,X,X

target: 1 UV ASI
1x roll 15k
1/8 here i think

2x roll 75k
case1 T,X
case2 X,T
case3 X,X

3x roll 375k
case1 T,X,X
case2 X,T,X
case3 X,X,T
case4 X,X,X

now im not good with math, especially probabilities and after writing this down, im assuming the chances r calculated like this
result of multiplying T's of case1 + result of multiplying T's of case2 + result of multiplying T's of case3 etc.

i would like to know a confirmation of whether this is correct or how it would be correct and how i can speed things up without getting confused
additional info would also be nice, but make it understandable please

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 16:00

mattress97

Legacy Username

TD:DR

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 17:05

Complexmuffin

ummm what?

next time you put a bunch of random numbers and letters dont expect us to understand what you mean

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 18:31

ThePiGuy

Legacy Username

I think I see what you mean.

I think I see what you mean. I'm not sure exactly how the UV's are chosen, but I'll assume that they have an equal chance of being selected.

For target 1 (Fire,Shock), a 2x UV roll gives 1 in 45 (2.22%) odds, and a 3x UV roll gives 1 in 15 (6.67%) odds.
For target 2 (ASI), a 1x UV roll gives 1 in 8 (12.5%), a 2x UV roll gives 1 in 4 (25.0%), and a 3x UV roll gives 1 in 2.67 (37.5%) odds.

Given these odds though, because the prices of the additional UV rolls increase by a factor of 5 while the odds increase only by a factor of 2 or 3, you're better off going with the lowest UV roll possible multiple times, until you get the UV(s) you want.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 19:03

Shrinkshootr

I have a pretty good idea of

I have a pretty good idea of what you're trying to say, but next time you post something with a title that says "question," try actually putting a question somewhere in the post.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 21:17

swtdrgn

Legacy Username

So, you want to know what is

So, you want to know what is the chance that you will get your desired UV bonus GIVEN that you get the UV bonus? The list with T's and X's are the possible outcomes (Not caring which of the desired variants you want), and they are not equally likely.

Let T be a set of variants you desired, and let X be a set of the other variants.

If you know how to count, then you know there is n-choose-3 (nC3) possible three-UV combos and n-choose-2 (nC2) possible two-UV combos, where n is the number of variants.

The possible number of outcomes in a 3 UV-combo for:
2 of any Desired Variants: |T|C2 * |X| , probability: ( |T|C2 * |X| ) / ( [|T| + |X|]C3 )
1 of any Desired Variants: |T|C1 * |X|P2 , probability: ( |T|C1 * |X|P2 ) / ( [|T| + |X|]C3 )

Similarly, for a 2 UV-combo:
2 of any Desired Variants: |T|C2 , probability: ( |T|C2 ) / ( [|T| + |X|]C2 )
1 of any Desired Variants: |T|C1 * |X| , probability: ( |T|C1 * |X| ) / ( [|T| + |X|]C2 )

C for Combinations ; P for Permutations

If you want a numerical answer, go punch those numbers and expressions into your calculator or Math CAD.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 05:58

BiggestLoser

Legacy Username

Zelda

ty, thats exactly the lottery topic, i failed to understand at the end of my lessons in school

ill favourite this, because probabilities always keep confusing me

my calculator is right here, i just didnt know how to use that integrated ncr function properly, today after waking up, i had a completely different, yet another wrong attempt of breaking through to this

ty#124 for bumping
ty#3 for example-results and evaluation(and yes im going with the same assumption of equal chances)
ty#5 for forumula/know-how

i put it in the calculator now and get the results of #3, altho i still dont quiet understand how it works, im glad i used proper basic terms in the OP

The possible number of outcomes in a 3 UV-combo for:
1 of any Desired Variants: |T|C1 * |X|P2 , probability: ( |T|C1 * |X|P2 ) / ( [|T| + |X|]C3 )

if i put the ASI(T=1, X=7) in my calc: (1C1*7P2/8C3), it gives me a 3/4, while my head tells me it should be a 3/8, which matches #3(i also tryed to just put the X instead of XP2, but it then gives me a 1/8)

all other results match the post #3, what am i doing wrong at the 3-uv, T = 1 forumula? its not really necessary for a T=1, but id like to know

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UV roll question for math people