Does anyone know the chances to find a divine avenger recipe? Been trying to find it, but I want to know the chances and see why its so hard to find this single recipe compared to other 5* recipes. Just wondering. (Besides, the divine avenger recipes on the auction house are complete rip-offs; ex: 50K for a single recipe?!)
Rarity on the Divine Avenger Recipe
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 00:45
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 03:29
#2
Ask your friends and guild
Ask your friends and guild members to buy it for you if they see it on sale.
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:12
#3
I want to know the chances
I want to know the chances and see why its so hard to find this single recipe compared to other 5* recipes.
In short: There are many more recipes that are other 5* recipes than there are recipes that are DA recipes.
There are approximately 100 5* recipes for Basil to choose from. I don't know what the average number of 5* recipes a T3 Basil has, so take 5 as a rough estimate. Assuming no 5* recipes are rarer than any others, that means you have about a 5% chance of finding the recipe you're looking for on any given visit, and it will take you an average of 20 visits to find it. In that time, you will see approximately 100 other recipes, each of which has a chance of repeating, so chances are very high you will notice some repeats before you find the recipe you're looking for. That can easily give the impression that your recipe is less common than others.
For all I know, it could be that some recipes really are less common than others. Has anybody collected statistics on this yet? What I do know is that it's easy to get the impression that the rarities are different when they are not.
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 08:27
#4
Assuming no 5* recipes are
Assuming no 5* recipes are rarer than any others, that means you have about a 5% chance of finding the recipe you're looking for on any given visit, and it will take you an average of 20 visits to find it.
That'd be nice, but you just have a 5% chance every visit. You could run T3 Basil 9001 times and still never get it if your luck is just terrible.
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 10:40
#5
If you've run basil 9001
If you've run basil 9001 times and still haven't seen the recipe, you've probably collected enough crowns to just buy it at the AH.
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:54
#6
"it will take you an average
"it will take you an average of 20 visits to find it."
That'd be nice, but you just have a 5% chance every visit. You could run T3 Basil 9001 times and still never get it if your luck is just terrible.
Uh, yeah, that's the way random events happen, but as the person you were "correcting" stated, on average it would take 20 visits. If, on average, it didn't take 20 trips, then it wouldn't be a 5% chance.
Due to the randomness, I find it are quicker and cheaper to simply buy my recipes from the AH and when I get to basil, I try to buy recipes that will sell for a good profit. Reselling two recipes for each one you use will easily turn a profit. Of course, this only works well as long as most people don't do it, since not everyone can sell twice as many recipes at the AH as they buy.
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:49
#7
20 times?
Get your math right, both of you.
If the chance of finding it is 5% each time you reach Basil, the chance of NOT finding it is 95%. The chance of not finding it after N trips is 0.95 ^ N. This drops below 50% at N = 14, so you are more likely than not to see it before your 15th run. The chance of not seeing it after 20 trips is about 35%, so you have a 65% chance of having seen it after 20 trips. The chance of not seeing it after 45 trips is just under 10%, so if you're very unlucky it could take a while. The chance of not seeing it after 9001 trips is about 1 in 3 x 10^201, which is even less likely than being dealt a royal flush from a random 52-card deck 30 times in a row.
Now of course if you don't see it once, your chance does not increase; if you don't see it after 13 trips, it's no more likely to be seen on the 14th trip than any of the others. It is still, however, more likely than not that you'll see it before the 28th trip should that happen.
Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:01
#8
I think it's worth seeing the
I think it's worth seeing the plot of the cumulative distribution function to better understand your chances of seeing the recipe show up. Assuming a 5% chance each dive, we get this: This is a clickable link.
While the mean value is indeed 20, the skewness of the distribution puts the median value at only 14 or so. That is to say, you have a 50% chance of seeing the recipe by your 14th visit.
Fri, 12/07/2012 - 19:09
#9
True dis
Yeah i agree with Acid-Snow, He is right, i have a Avenger, just a regular one, and i have been tring to find one, But i found a recipe FINALLY! Here is the Recipe, Go to Depth 23 where there is NO ( I MEAN NONE!!!!) Undead Or Dark enemies and Go there, In Arcade or Missions, And the Luck Of you finding it is Probably 66%! Well, Bye!
Fri, 12/07/2012 - 19:19
#10
Why.
What was the point of reviving this?
Protip: run stratum 5, preferably the Beast themed one atm. Beast materials sell for much more than most others on the AH. Once you reach Basil, see what he has. If he has DA, get it. If not, go up, sell mats, yell to buy energy (enough to reach Basil, luckily it's Power Surge weekend so it's only 20 CE) if you need any using some of the crowns you earned, and go down again.