Prize Wheel Stats
Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:44
I've written down my results for 102 prize wheel spins on tier 2, to try to figure out the distribution of prizes. We know (from patch notes) that the chances of a lockbox, at least, varies from tier to tier, so this only includes tier 2 data.
I'm beginning to suspect there are some other rules that influence the distribution (e.g. I've never gotten a pickup when I already had something in every quickbar slot, even when I wasn't at max capacity), so this data may not be entirely representative. Take it with a grain of salt.
Remember, there's 102 spins total in this data, so the number of spins is almost the same as the percentage.
2 Lockboxes
65 Crown Prizes (745 crowns in total)
- 5 crowns x17
- 10 crowns x36
- 25 crowns x12
18 Materials
- 0-star x4 (2 light shards, 2 red shards)
- 1-star x3 (brimstone, gel drop, scrap metal)
- 2-star x7 (cooling cell, critter carapace, gel core, grave soil, gremlin gizmo, 2 power cells)
- 3-star x3 (drake scale, force dynamo, volt oil)
- 4-star x1 (ghost bell)
11 Hearts
6 Pickups
- 2 health capules
- 2 curse vials
- 1 fire vial
- 1 poison vial
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 20:45
#2
What makes you say that?
What makes you say that?
The patch notes say "Lockboxes have the highest chance of appearing in Tier 3, followed by Tier 2 and then Tier 1. " That definitely indicates that tier matters, but the way it is worded implies (though does not entail) that depth within a tier does not.
In any case, I posted all the data I recorded for those spins. As I noted above, it's quite possible there are other factors that influence the outcome, but the tier and the prize received were all that I wrote down up to this point. Controlling for every possible variable would be a lot more work, and would shard the data into so many sets that I'd need to play a lot longer to learn anything useful.
I've seen suggestions that all of the following might affect it:
- Open quickbar slots
- Current health
- Depth
- Heat collected during the level
Fri, 10/21/2011 - 23:46
#3
Well
Well, the scientific course of action is to take into account all the possible measurable factors, and write them down.
I'm just used to tier actually meaning depth when the devs say it, but you might be right.
The data will tell.
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 00:03
#4
Um, no
"Well, the scientific course of action is to take into account all the possible measurable factors, and write them down."
Um, no. The time of day, all the accessories being worn in the party, current gate population, seconds since your last death in Blast Network, and the phase of the moon are all measurable factors, and the devs could theoretically have programmed the game to take any or all of them into account, but noting down those (and ALL OTHER measurable factors) is not "the scientific course of action", it's the conspiracy theory course of action.
The scientific course of action is to form a hypothesis about how it works, and then collect data to prove or disprove that hypothesis. But the "hypothesis" part is pretty important.
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 23:56
#5
Counterexample
Apparently you CAN get a pickup that fits into one of your current quickbar stacks, even if no quickbar slot is empty.
I've still never been given a pickup from the prize wheel that hasn't fit into my quickbar, and that seems obvious enough that I think it's probably a rule.
Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:15
#6
i've noticed it's possible to
i've noticed it's possible to tell what item u will get before u spin the wheel. For example, running through a depth and finding little to no pick ups, i see a vial appear in my quick slots when i step on the elevator and when the wheel is done spinning, i see my prize is what appeared in my quick slot. another instance, after zero-ing my crowns in perperation for tracking how many crowns i would recieve for an upcoming arena, i step onto the elevator and see that my crowns jumped from 0 to 50, oddly enough, my prize from the wheel turned out to be a 25 crowns piece. although finding out what u will get seconds before getting it is of little consequence, getting double crowns was interesting. i hope i didn't spoil some extra crowns earning for everyone.
Tue, 10/25/2011 - 14:27
#7
hey.
Hey lemmon!!!!! :DDDDDDD
Tue, 10/25/2011 - 14:27
#8
hey.
Hey lemmon!!!!! :DDDDDDD
Tue, 10/25/2011 - 16:49
#9
Derp
So you're completely sure that the only factor that matters is tier without any data comparison.
Which in case you're wrong, will require someone else to redo the tests to write down what you didn't.
Cool.
Wed, 10/26/2011 - 10:04
#10
Derp
So you didn't actually read my posts.
You have wildly impractical ideas about how data collection should be done, that you expect other people to follow, but aren't volunteering to do yourself.
And you think I have the abiltiy to magically conjure up data from past experiments that wasn't recorded at the time.
Cool.
Depth is a relevant factor. Lockboxes are more common in the deeper levels.
You should sort data by level.