I've written down my results for 102 prize wheel spins on tier 2, to try to figure out the distribution of prizes. We know (from patch notes) that the chances of a lockbox, at least, varies from tier to tier, so this only includes tier 2 data.
I'm beginning to suspect there are some other rules that influence the distribution (e.g. I've never gotten a pickup when I already had something in every quickbar slot, even when I wasn't at max capacity), so this data may not be entirely representative. Take it with a grain of salt.
Remember, there's 102 spins total in this data, so the number of spins is almost the same as the percentage.
2 Lockboxes
65 Crown Prizes (745 crowns in total)
- 5 crowns x17
- 10 crowns x36
- 25 crowns x12
18 Materials
- 0-star x4 (2 light shards, 2 red shards)
- 1-star x3 (brimstone, gel drop, scrap metal)
- 2-star x7 (cooling cell, critter carapace, gel core, grave soil, gremlin gizmo, 2 power cells)
- 3-star x3 (drake scale, force dynamo, volt oil)
- 4-star x1 (ghost bell)
11 Hearts
6 Pickups
- 2 health capules
- 2 curse vials
- 1 fire vial
- 1 poison vial
Depth is a relevant factor. Lockboxes are more common in the deeper levels.
You should sort data by level.