Disappointingly, the shadow keys and shadow lairs seem to be viable
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 07:16
While I don't think this adds much insight to the topic, I am not sure if we're going to see any changes in the short term. There are a lot of complaints and a lot of backlash, but I don't think that's enough to compensate for the people who have taken the bait and tried to get the shadow keys. Just as a note:
Someone spent $150 worth of energy on the lockboxes and had no key.
I think I have heard other figures thrown around like $40 or $50 from one player.
More and more players are popping up with mercurial suits and snarbolax sets. I would not be surprised if within a month we'll have players who have made it to the shadow lair version of the firestorm citadel.
Shadow keys are selling like hot items off the auction house.
My point is there are many people that hate this update, but there are enough people who are (perhaps grudgingly) buying into the system to make it viable and profitable for OOO. I can't really speculate on their financial status, though.
If everyone was to simply have ignored this new update, THEN maybe there would have been a change, at least to the gambling aspect. I do wonder how this will work in the long-term, however. Will people become disinterested in the investment? Will SK run out of big spenders who are willing to dump $150 in the game on the fly? And is it worth it to alienate the big spenders by giving them no reward for their $150? As a model, is it better to attract all the people who are one-time splurgers, or is it better to attract them as long-term customers who spend small, yet consistent amounts? This seems to be working short-term but as a long-term thing it may not be sustainable as a practice. The worrisome thing is that if this works well enough, do you think all the upcoming, end-game content will be dependent upon a gambling aspect?
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 08:09
#2
Exactly. I think there's
Exactly. I think there's obviously enough people doing this that OOO won't change their minds. I just think this does leave a division not between the paying players and the F2P players, but I think the players who come across the right opportunity and those who don't.
It's hard to explain but I do think having extra disposable income does factor into it. I think having CE factors into it. I also think having the right connections factors into it. I am just worried that how much more of the content will become exclusive with this model?
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 08:23
#3
This is just a theory but i
This is just a theory but i have a strong feeling this will NOT change... http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/29954 has a post from Nick that he states:
"My comment on the matter in an earlier post was as follows:
'A significantly greater number of players are currently sporting accessories than have ever actually opened a lockbox. There is no reason that Shadow Keys will be any different.'
In other words, like nearly all content in Spiral Knights, Shadow Lairs can be experienced by a free player should they choose to pursue them."
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Now to me what it sounds like to me (My Theory) is that they want us to understand that you can buy the keys off of the AH, considering that there is someone that has opened just one and got just one shadow key by their luck, they did not spend 150$ getting that key, so you cannot expect that they will place their value of that key to a CE equivalent above that 150$ one has payed.
If you did not understand that which i think i dont myself: to sum up My Theory it is that OOO doesn't want us to go ahead and open lockboxes, they want us to snag cheaper ones due to not risking luck off of the AH, and that is how Nick stated that in his own words that it has a stable reasonable price that, haha, where you have "a free player should they choose pursue them."
My Theory is most likely not true because this might not be what they are thinking, but what this shows is that its their last resort to stand up for their business plan (for that is all this update is, my 2 cents for complaining). and even state that its free player friendly which blows my mind.
So in other words, this is probably going to stay. How it works and how it has worked is that OOO could care less if they have a bad reputation as you can see all of the people that are currently saying how they now hate them because of this new business plan. All they currently care about is that their business plan is succeeding.
In this business plan of an update, they repeated content so it shouldn't have costed that much to impliment into the game, you know, add some freeze turn the jello blue, add those small differences maybe jazz it up with some stuff but whatever. Just copy what you have already done, I kind of like the idea BUT due to OOO's past I see this cool heroic bosses idea no more than part of their business model. Then after all of this, they add the shadow keys, which we can all agree is a part of their shady business plan.
Now... in the same thread, Marqui stated:
"It's good to see you shedding some light Eurydice, but we don't know the data on what players are doing and saying, and no matter how much we shout or yell, updates always stay the same.
If you can let us know if OOO has been affected in any way by the player-base reactions, their thoughts on the matter, etc. whenever you can, that would be fantastic. Until then though, I can only imagine players lashing out, fearing that they aren't being heard."
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I really like this post following a response from Eurydice claiming that they do listen to us. It simply says ok, cool, Eurydice but you guys aren't doing enough. Right now there has been no response that I have found that is based on wether or not they are thinking of getting rid of their business model or keeping it. The whole deal about my theory up top is that is what I think is their way of saying it is here to stay. If they can keep leaving us hanging, THEY can't lash out because we lash out.
So thats what I've collected so far concerning wether or not shadow keys are to stay and how poorly they have let us in on anything concerning this.
Now for as far as the long term vs. short term business models work, long term is definately better but what you can expect from SK is that they like those one-time players that leave soon after paying (the model that does not give a damn about their playerbase model). There is no such information that backs up this not being true which is pathetic, if you have some please explain it I would enjoy to hear it.
And finally, your other though will end-game be up to gambling? Why yes, that is how OOO makes their money (see how this short term business model works?).
no tl;dr read it all am sorry
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 08:24
#4
The fact that people are
The fact that people are willing to "buy" the armors off other players completely undermines the shadow key system as a whole. The entire point of the shadow lairs and the stone crafting stations was to create a barrier for entry, where players simply couldn't buy their way to the new armor like you can with the 5*... they would actually have to put effort into fighting for them.
But once again, the players found a way to turn a profit on a level that gives no other type of reward. All because people are willing to spend stupid amounts of money on something that looks cool. This only validates the lockbox model works in general, and the rarity of the keys hasn't slowed people from getting in and obtaining the armors. All it required was an initial investment to build the first set, and now they know they can sell them for way more then the cost to make them.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 08:49
#5
I'm curious now: how much is
I'm curious now: how much is Snarbolax gear being sold for?
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 08:55
#6
I'm not sure. I think also
I'm not sure. I think also wouldn't those selling the sets have to sell out 4k energy to unbind them? It may be more profitable to sell the material and sell the recipes than to sell the set itself.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 09:42
#7
Starlinvf , you should've
Starlinvf , you should've assumed that was never going to be the case when it was revealed how those armors could be acquired. I mean, them being 5* equipment suggests straight out they can be unbound. In all honesty, I guessed this to be a possibility to happen eventually, but not in a span of a week. The suspicious side of me thinks that OOO already knew this was exactly what was going to happen.
Also, for those asking about the prices of Snarbo helm/armor, all you need to do is check the first page of the Bazaar forums, as it will have the most current information. As of writing this message though, the price people are both willing to buy and sell them for is 15k CE per piece. And last time I saw the prices on AH of the new 5* mats, it's much more profitable to sell the costumes, even accounting for all fees.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 10:11
#8
Three Rings does a lot better
Three Rings does a lot better if a thousand people spend 300 CE than if fifty people spend 2000 CE.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 10:19
#9
Because obviously only 50
Because obviously only 50 people have tried to get a shadow key.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 10:51
#10
I weep for anyone who spent
I weep for anyone who spent over 5$ searching for a shadow key in this sad excuse of a micro-transaction system.
Sun, 10/23/2011 - 11:11
#11
I think it's too early to
I think it's too early to judge whether people are going to put up with the shadow key mess in the long run. There's always going to be a few early adopters who jump on anything shiny and new, and you can't judge the success of new content just by their reactions.
Once that small handful of players gets bored and moves on, though, then we'll see.
I saw that the complaints had nowhere to go once I saw how much Shadow Lair divers were successfully selling Snarbolax sets for in the Bazaar.
People are willing to spend so much on the Shadow Lair armor that it can fund a person's Lair run even if they wanted to solo it. Let that sink in first...