When the elevator pass was first announced, I argued that it was possible that it could cause the CE exchange rate to go down, very much like your analysis. Judging by the actual impact on the market, it looks like the overall effect was to increase the CE exchange rate.

One ting to ponder: since the elevator pass is temporary, there may well be people who are buying CE right now, even if they don't need it, in order to stock up for after the elevator pass expires. If the elevator pass was made permanent, that might change.

"I've personally never met any F2P player who buys CE with crowns for more playtime."

I do, and I did when I was T2 as well.

Just because you buy CE doesn't mean you're a net CE producer. Maybe I have the definitions wrong, but I'd put you in the paying category since you do pay on occasion.

There is also the category of player who pays for a large portion of their CE, but not enough to sell any. Additionally, net CE producers may buy some CE with crowns if they think the market will go up, if they prefer CE as a store of wealth (they still produce crowns and have to deal with them somehow), and I'm sure there are plenty of other reasons.

I've personally never met any F2P player who buys CE with crowns for more playtime.

Uh, when I played more, I did all the time, but then, I used to make 200kcr - 500kcr per weekend.

Also, back when the CE exchange rate was 4k and lower, lots and lots of people used CE on gates and it was only after the exchange rate went up that most people went to "ME only for elevators". That is one of the problems with the high exchange rate, OOO is sinking a lot less CE in the clockworks. The high CE exchange rate also means that people need to sell half as much CE on the market in order to get the crowns they need.

There are a lot of competing things in the SK economy and it is hard, especially if you don't have the data that OOO has, to predict the net effect of a change. A high CE exchange rate encourages people to buy CE, but it also discourages people from buying CE.

Jevon's Paradox states that when the efficiency of a resource's exploitation increases, the consumption can increase. This is most obvious during half-price elevator weekends (crowns per CE goes up).

Here's your issue - you're only thinking in terms of crowns and CE. There is a third, most important, currency: cash. Moreover, there's a fixed rate between cash and CE (barring Steam game trades, CE sales, and other edge cases) and the elevator pass was acting as a substitute for CE (for six dollars, one could buy X amount of CE or the pass). The immediate effect was that every pass represents a loss of CE in the system equivalent to that six dollars (at a discount rate related to whether one would actually buy that CE). So that's a reduction in supply in the crown-CE relationship.

Moreover, most people posit a positive correlation between runs and having a pass - since one must use it to make the pass worthwhile; more runs = more crowns, and moreover, those crowns were not drawing energy out of the system. This is Jevon's paradox at work. The players running free elevators still had mist, so they would be crafting more than usual (twice a day for 2* gear, once per for other gear) and would not always be crafting ice bombs or caliburs for UV rolls; they would also be upping their gear to 3,4 and 5 star...which costs CE in addition to mist (and the more runs performed, the more gear to improve). The demand for CE, while mitigated slightly by pass-users not running elevators on CE, necessarily increases even if players are substituting pass runs for CE runs.

Cumulatively, the crown-CE relationship had nowhere to go but up. Looking at the Eve Online model, there's an easy answer why gametime cards are buyable in both cash and game currency - they provide an effective game-money sink AND a cashout method for CCP (who, unsurprisingly enough, have an economist on staff to monitor and study in-game economies). Had the elevator pass cost an equivalent amount of crowns to [(6 dollars) * X (CE/dollar) * Y (cr/CE)], players would have bought CE with cash, transferred it into crowns using the existing exchanges and stabilized the market without drastically changing the windfall for OOO. By directly drawing out cash from the players, they put a finger on the in-game market because CE-cash has a fixed exchange rate.

Unfortunately, OOO has done a lot of short-term fixes on their exchange without implementing an effective crown sink to solve the problem more long-term. Featured Auctions looks like another of those short-term fixes (high-level players are not going to buy two or more Bechamel Scissors, or change their color, etc, making those sinks nonrecurring).

What makes you guys think P2P will be buying CE with crowns? They are P2P guys lol. Derp derp derpity. I'm a F2P and MY people are the ones who buy with crowns.

I think how narrow minded Free-To-Play players are has been stated by this.

Anyway, since I shall assume that anyone that bought CE with cash is considering "P2P" I am P2P also then. I bought an elevator pass, but with this pass I have quit buying CE with crowns because why? I don't craft.. there is nothing else I want in this game at the moment. There is no accessories I want. Anyway..

The F2P player base should be more thankful for the P2P playerbase for keeping the game alive rather then moaning about "OMG ce is too much!!!!" all the time. Pay a bit to support the game you spend your day on. Lord knows at Tier 3 you can make crowns even while buying CE from the market if you spam FSC.. for all those that are bored of playing FSC all the time. Buy a pass and go play some other levels.

In short.. what I wanted to say is. When I started I spent $5 for CE for my friend and I. With that I boosted myself to tier 2/tier 3 and my friend. (Back when CE was 3500 per 100). Instead of wasting countless months of my life to reach Tier 3 and then end game (Tier 3 is not end game imo). I did it in about a week and saved months of my life instead of being F2P. Maybe not everyone thinks of their life as so.. but I would gladly fork over $5 if it would give me hours/days/months of time in my life for other things.

I think how narrow minded Free-To-Play players are has been stated by this.

I think you meant "I think how narrow minded Hector-Uribe is has been stated by this."

So, P2P'ers buy all their CE with cash, is that what you're saying?

To quote you: "Derp derp derpity"...

I'm kind of curious where you picked this up. I've never heard of it before, which kind of makes me sad. I mean, I've considered it slash heard of it conceptually, I just didn't know there was a name for it.

Well conceptually I get it, I was just wondering where you came across it. I don't think I've ever heard it by name (I'm perfectly comfortable with the concept).

The concept of F2P an P2P does NOT go with SK since it's F2P!!!!! So we are not called F2P players or P2P players. It's just who is and who isn't supporting OOO. But! (punch-line). OOO has set up this market of ours WHICH has made both sides meaning also the players who don't spend a dime on this game are also supporting the game thanks to this market. So you see my amigos and amigas, the market is the reason why we all are supporting OOO, SK, and nick regardless of spending or not spending money on this game. Both sides need each other. One cannot live without the other in this game since then the market will crash and we'll be in a regression. Tyvm and now i bid thee farewell. I am not a narrow minded person I am a liberal. <~ Eat this wallstreet.