Spiral Knights - Am I missing a few screws or is lock down rigged in terms of win/lose? ( please read )

Am I missing a few screws or is lock down rigged in terms of win/lose? ( please read )

20 replies [Last post]

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 20:45

Liveice

I really feel uneasy discussing this here but there are some things I just have to ask and see if anyone else has noticed this stuff.... reason I worry about asking is I can only see a few ways this will go down

1. I am wrong about this I have just stamped myself on the fore head with a big sign that says "nut job" for all to see...

and that's one of the better ways it could go down... the other being this,

2. There really is something and I am blowing a mighty big whistle on some mighty big people right on their front porch.....

But I still have to know, does anyone else have reason to believe that at least in terms of "wins" and "losses" lock down is fitted with a certain... shall way say "enhanced fairness"?

That is to say if you win to much at lock down you will soon be hit by rather convenient streak of bad luck that will take you back from maybe a 65% success rate back down to 50% or there abouts.

I am a numbers and strategies guy and actually have records of my wins and losses, and ironically there is nothing I fear more then seeing a big old winning streak.... because I have seen time and time again that when it ends things don't return to normal, they shoot right through the floor with an almost complete flat line.

I know we are in teams so one person can only influence an outcome so much but I have tried everything to boost my winning column but find that I am still not winning much past 55-ish percent of the time, now I could except the idea that I might just be a lousy player and this is the best I can get but thing is I also have records from when I was new and unpracticed, unfamiliar to lock down and not all three star'ed up that shows just about the same success rate!

I know some complained in the beginning about how the strong were dominating the fields and they didn't like losing but at the same time I can't feel that it would be fair that a full three star'ed, well practiced strong willed, multiple thought out load outs for different shields player should have the same success rate as the guy running around in proto gear as a striker with one un-heated 3* bomb who doesn't even try to back up his team mates!

So am I nuts? or is it possible there is something going intended to keep anyone from losing to much more then 50% least they feel bad but also meaning they cannot be "beaten" more then 50% and as someone has to lose it also means YOU cannot expect to win much more then half the time seemingly regardless of how hard you try to be better....

and I guess the last thing I would ask is this, IF there even is such a mechanism encoded into the system what can we do to over power it without breaking the rules or hacking? surely there must be some way to over power it, just what would you need to do in order to be "good enough" to do so?

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 21:35

Realnight

Unless your able to single

Unless your able to single handedly defeat the opposing team then your efforts (however good they are) really are at the mercy of your team - which is random. Random likes to average out to 50/50 so as to why your seeing what your seeing.

While there might be a "trueskill" like mechanism hidden behind the walls of lockdown there are so few players at any given time that there is no way it could be at work on the scale your describing. Or in other words there isn't enough players for a mechanism to care about matching players by skill since it's trying its hardest just to match people at all in a timely manner.

So I'm going to put a vote on #1.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 22:04

Liveice

oh, and one other thing I

oh, and one other thing I forgot, one of the ways I think this is done is by the more you have been on the winning team, the more likely you are to be stuck with players of less shall we say, spectacular records, at least until you lose enough or they win enough, basically its in the supposedly random team put construction that it is done.

and it would help to explain why you can ever see the "waiting" slot ever go past 48 even when there are less then 100 people playing.
obviously if it just stuck you in teams as fast as it could you would only ever see 5 on 5 at most if 10 people in the same tier just happen to try playing all at the same time, so lock down will hold to make bigger teams BUT even if it was waiting for not only 8 on 8 matches in not just tier 3 and 2 but even in tier 1 which is barely populated that would still only be 3 pairs of 16 for a total of 48, and I don't know what the servers max for being able to host is but I know its more then 150, and I am sure I have seen it hit 55 waiting when there were no where near what makes sense for a max in the server,

I admit there are other explanations then the random team thing being choosy but it does fit rather nicely in explaining things

Oh and Realknight I do thank you for your input, that is why I put this board here after all, to gather information from any who have any thoughts

though I guess to some extent what you point out is what I am also counting on for there to even be a chance of overriding any mechanisms should they exist, basically there should only be so much they could do to even the odds

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 22:23

Chris

I win 95% or more of my

I win 95% or more of my random team LD games using strategy and skill.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 22:46

Kilbride

Lockdown...

I win a significant number of my games in T2. I am fairly sure that I'd get handled in T3, with my current setup.

Some of it is just practice with a good mix of weapons. Trinkets help. Finding strategies that mess with other players. (Standing back and plinking with an antigua while a teammate hacks up an enemy; the antigua does minimal damage but interrupts. Using a lightning capacitor and spamming bombs. Using the striker boost to 'cancel' after a flourish swing, and so on.)

If I am struggling to win as a striker, I switch to being a guardian and clean house. Guardians are pretty OP in T2. Don't think it is the same in T3, tho'.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:04

Poopsie

let me finish chris' sentence

and great arsenal equipments.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:36

Frostythepyro

my winrate is very high,

my winrate is very high, probably 85% or upwards, I did this with no trinkets, no UV's of note (i have low vs poisen and one other low on an armor, not realy a big deal). Mostly with two weapons (sword and gun), but did have 3 for w while (added a 2* bomb untill the weapon slot ran out).

I have noticed no particular rhyme or reason for who is on whos team and I too have tracked wins and losses (well okay I tracked proffit which is very close to the same thing).

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:52

Silphius

I notice that if the teams

I notice that if the teams are stacked for 2-4 rounds, eventually random chance (or some hidden mechanic) makes me end up in the underdog team. On good days and in small matches that usually means I'll end up carrying the team with a ridiculous score and as many captures as the rest of my team combined, but in larger player counts it might mean my team loses.

I believe this is random chance, 2/5 of the times you'll end up in the stacked team, 2/5 you'll end up in the underdog steam and 1/5 of the times you'll end up with perfectly balanced teams (meaning an awesome match ahead). In all these situations you yourself are the only constant in your team.

Smaller things I've noticed is class preference; if the majority likes going guardian and a string of large maps comes up they'll have to run places a lot. This means dashing past and starting a fight with a Gran Faust hit. My team usually wins this.
If a string of smaller maps hits, I have to pick them apart while they nest on the points. My team usually can't out-cap in this situation. I've won these games before by going Guardian on their home-base point, but I don't like playing Guardian as much.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 16:16

Nicoya-Kitty

@Balderus oh, I know that

@Balderus oh, I know that feeling. I jump on a match and people are all "lol a bomber w/e" and ignore me while I do this and this. Then they finally catch on and start piling on me with their pea shooters and toothpicks. QQ

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 13:56

Liveice

Been meaning to come back to

Been meaning to come back to this for some time, anyways I am more convinced then ever that there is some pattern in my records BUT the replies from the pros up top have indeed convinced me that it is not OOO who is responsible for whatever is happening and not though some sort of "enhanced fairness" mechanism.

So while I still may have to go around with the label "nut job" for a while I think it was still worth it because now I can turn to other possibilities as to why I see what I see and thus have a better chance of beating the REAL problem as the list of suspects has been narrowed down.

So thank you all for your help, see ya in cradle

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 15:56

#10

Xylka-Mkii

"not though some sort of

"not though some sort of "enhanced fairness" mechanism."
Well that's a win/lose.

On one hand you got the Steam Achievement farmers on your team. On the other, you don't get swapped to that team 10 seconds before the match ends.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 17:45

#11

Liveice

ug, there should be an "r" in

ug, there should be an "r" in that word "though" reading, "not through some sort of "enhanced fairness" mechanism"", I hate my typos....

Anyways it was before the whole steam noob mess started, I actually saw an increase in my winnings as I was more likely to be the strongest player out of both sides so long as I went striker and not my usual recon or healing guardian.

What I have turned my focus to is possible traffic problems in the particular internet provider I have, basically what I am seeing IS a situation where there is a forced give and take but not in spiral, but in connection speed regardless of other "connection indicators" basically I will get my time to be a first in line in data service and other times where there are more in my general service area I will have to share more causing me to lag more effecting my play.

I have been finding that there is more then one type of lag,

A. The screen will be choppy but accurate and is very playable

B. Is smooth but false, latency I believe it is called my body can end up 5 to 6 spaces away from where I thought I was a second ago a safe distance from someones weapon, this is not playable as everything is an afterimage.

C. Defined as small outages where suddenly everything is just walking in straight lines even off screen or through objects, this may or may not be playable depending on how often and how long they happen.

I have started doing test games before trying to really go for long gaming sessions to see what I have to work with and am having a lot of success.

Edit:

Oh durp, and D of course, or maybe it should be A... meh whatever, this is where there is no lag, everything is smooth and where it is supposed to be, obviously this the best and most playable but even with 3 or 4 bars its not the most common but nothing that can much be done by OOO to solve this issue,

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 17:38

#12

Martinsen

:((

I always get the most horrible parties. I can be one of those with the most dmg score or whatever it's called, but my party always seem to fail.

e___e

So uh, win rate - 45% -__- ??

Guess everyone can't be pro, or, lucky atleast?

Also, tl;dr

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 17:44

#13

Njthug

Not sure how everyone is

Not sure how everyone is calculating there win rate knowing no one keeps tabs on all their wins and losses, and I can be wrong since lets be honest there some crazy people out there, but now you have the question which comes up did he or she take a picture of all their losses in lock down?

Regardless my win rate is 97.3538% calculated this by pure guessing like many.

Honestly, if you wish to win all you can do is cap and hold positions. Its not a damage game I been in matches where the other team has steroid head kids who try to get 20k+ damage, but end up losing since they are not playing for the team they are just playing to get e-hard on.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 18:10

#14

Orangeo

Or you can play T1 pvp with

Or you can play T1 pvp with two heart trinkets and all medium UV's. ASI on mah heavy hatchet ;)
On a side note OP, saying "DOES THIS MAKE ME LOOK CRAZY GUYS" looks crazy.

Sun, 01/01/2012 - 19:38

#15

Keelan

Tier 2 is won by whichever

Tier 2 is won by whichever team has the knight with the Snarby swords clicking the fastest in random directions and chasing around the weakest players with their Strike boost.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 17:08

#16

No-Thanks

Zelda

i noted down my win lose rate yesterday and got 12 wins 7 loses

✕ 3 things that bothered me were

how helpless i was when i played the 1st 11 matches with guns and as recon only
how little joy i felt from winning consecutively in comparison to how much anger i felt from losing consecutively
the fact that those matches were very time consuming. i never intended to play that long

✓ the only good thing is, that i didnt end up losing as much money as usual. i stopped immediately after getting a 2 1 win lose rate(putting aside my habit of clicking the play again button, which got me the 7th lose)

✕ E: it doesnt seem to matter much, whether i try to win or not. thats confusing, irritating and frustrating u.u

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 07:06

#17

Softhead

N-N-N-N-NECRO!!

It's been three months man. THREE MONTHS!!

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 07:23

#18

No-Thanks

Zelda

No-Thanks necro
Atrumvindex "NECRO!!"

i saw that coming, but from that same name..and within 6minutes? /clap

E:oh yeah i didnt think itd ever be seen by any1, but just to rub it in
eat that

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 07:47

#19

Dukeplatypus

#2 there is just human

#2 there is just human nature, cant really help it.

Mon, 04/02/2012 - 10:12

#20

Fallconn

FALCON PUNCH!

well, get more skill for one thing, and second....being a dusker clone with a toothpick and trinkets would better than what you have currently for T2 LD :P

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Am I missing a few screws or is lock down rigged in terms of win/lose? ( please read )