TF2 Refined Metal is way overpriced

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Noobowns's picture
Noobowns

So I sat at my calculator 2 minutes ago and calculated out that Refined metal is being traded for more CE than it should.

People are asking up to 400 CE for a refined, when in truth, the Refined Metal should be at approximately 250-275 CE, 300 at most.

Based on simple math calculations with the worth in monetary value. Only if, and I mean only if TF2 Refined sold for 1 dollar each, which it doesnt, it would be worth 350 CE at the most.

TF2 Refined has dropped to even 65 cents, bringing its price to 227 CE according to math calculations. I used the best pricing calculation, the 3500 CE price, which is 10 dollars, 9.95. Because it does not involve any other influences like trinket or weapon slots, mist tanks, or anything else to alter the value.

So by my calculations, 1 dollar is the value of 350 CE. With TF2 Refined going for less than 1 Dollar, it should not sell for even that much.

Just simple calculations my friend, no wonder people are getting ripped off like crazy.

Sincerely,
Noobowns

P.S. - Just a little tidbit to think about when trading for Refined Metal.

Poetry's picture
Poetry
The timing of this thread is

The timing of this thread is very suspect.

You are quitting SK, after all, and liquidating all of your assets into CE.

http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/37170

So naturally, it would be to your advantage to take this stance, to be able to buy refined metal at a low price and then later sell it at a higher price.

You're attempting to give advice to sellers, at a time when you''ll likely be buying.

I'd say there's a conflict of interest there.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
ur 100% correct. I am leaving

ur 100% correct. I am leaving SK, and it is a suspicious time for me to post this. However, after careful calculations, which me leaving was the reason I did them, 250 is the correct price of Refined Metal.

Tell me I am wrong.

Myllakka's picture
Myllakka
---

It's a free market, so even if your calculations prove that they are 250 CE (I don't know for sure since I don't play TF2), if sellers won't sell for that much and buyers are willing to pay more, then the current price isn't 'ripping off' anyone.

Mikaxsus's picture
Mikaxsus
Tis true.

1 ref = 270-250 ce

Kickthebucket's picture
Kickthebucket
Myllakka is right... if

Myllakka is right...

if people want to pay it let them... you don't have to.

Oceanprince's picture
Oceanprince
Price

It's not just "X is equal to Y" argument. There's also Supply Vs. Demand. Demand on refined may be up due to new items and hats. Supply should be up due to double drop week but it can not match demand.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
I tried posting about supply

I tried posting about supply and demand earlier, but for some reason I wasnt able to post it and I did not copy the post.

In short, supply and demand does not apply in this situation. You are trading via items that their values are determined by cash, not in game items. It would apply based on the crown vs CE factor. But Crowns are not involved here.

Lseraphim's picture
Lseraphim
u noobs go play TF2 and try

u noobs go play TF2 and try to make 1 refined metal yourself if u think its easy to make compared to CE. Theres an item cap every week.

Refined metals are already underpriced. I want 500 CE for my refined.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
lol fail post. firstly, i do

lol fail post.

firstly, i do play tf2, and i get 2 refined in a week.

secondly, maybe you failed to see the calculations, because the calculations all point to refined metal equal to 250 CE each. you are the noob my friend.

Lseraphim's picture
Lseraphim
Wow so u get 36 items each

Wow so u get 36 items each week? Please stop talking in general like everyone has alternative steam/tf2 accounts for idling.

Kupoo's picture
Kupoo
firstly, i do play tf2, and i

firstly, i do play tf2, and i get 2 refined in a week.

In Spiral Knights, you can make approximately 10k cr off of 100 mist, which converts to about 140 CE at an exchange rate of 70 cr/CE. That makes about 980 CE per week. Going off of your number, which you imply to be a good going rate, that means that in the time it takes to make one refined metal, you'd be able to make 490 CE. With a higher exchange rate, i.e. 100 ME converts into 100 CE, that's still 350 / metal.

You also brought up the issue of cash setting a hard exchange rate, but that is not necessarily the case. CE isn't necessarily bought with (a person's own) cash, and can be obtained through normal gameplay. I don't claim to know much of TF2, but from the way you phrased your last post, I assume that such a property holds true for Refined Metal as well. This means that money is not the only defining variable, but playtime and effort for each. Sure, you can just buy one or the other, but that doesn't mean most players will want to buy them outright. As a result, the exchange rate isn't set by how much of each you'd get for the same monetary value, but for the same amount of game playing.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
the value of an item in game

the value of an item in game is defined by what its cost is up until it is set by an IRL currency.

Refined metal goes a short way to about 75 cents each, while CE goes at about 1 dollar. I am starting you guys off with simple calculations. DO you agree with that small part at least? Or will you disagree with me on even the simplest of calculations.

Kupoo's picture
Kupoo
Your math and numbers are

Your math and numbers are correct. That means absolutely nothing when the theoretical basis is not - your theoretical basis is not.

If, as I've posited above, both Refined Metal and CE are obtainable without cash, then money is paid as a convenience factor, rather than a necessary factor. By purchasing either, you are not just buying an item, but buying time that would otherwise be spent being used toward that commodity. And when it comes to Refined Metal, purchasing the Metal then means purchasing half a week's worth of time - which amounts to 350+ CE.

Kitty-Softpaws's picture
Kitty-Softpaws
Seriously.......WHO THE

Seriously.......WHO THE CHEESE NUMBER CRUNCHES THESE DAYS?!?

Xylka-Mkii's picture
Xylka-Mkii
@Hector-Uribe People only

@Hector-Uribe

People only number crunch when it is important in making a large business decision to them. Apparently people love their refined metal.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
@kupoo, apparently you are

@kupoo, apparently you are unaware of the concept of idling.

That of which invalidates your theory of time, putting the value of refined even less, with CE even higher priced. Because CE is not only obtainable by time, but also effort in that case. I did not want to include the factor of time due to this reason exactly.

The items of TF2 drop on their own, you dont go out of your way to get them. They will drop when playing the game. However, CE does not drop, you must use what you obtain in game, to actually purchase the CE, thus putting a value of CE even higher, and value of TF2 Refined even lower.

You cannot look at only one aspect if you want to try and disprove, look at everything and how the mechanism works.

So people are not wasting time when playing TF2, they are having fun. Or at least I think they are. However, due to the fact that there is a limit on the amount of playtime you can put into Spiral Knights, thus causes the value to go even higher.

With TF2, you are allowed 12 hours playtime to get items. With Spiral Knights, you are allowed only 100 Mist, which on a daily basis does regenerate, which accumulates to 700 Mist. Assuming you are playing big runs, like Vanaduke, you are running about 90 Mist each day. And on average, maybe 70 Mist if you get a lucky join.

So this means you are allowed 10 Vanaduke runs a week. Maybe an 11th due to 22 hours of regeneration time so it allows up to another 70 Mist as well by the end of the week.

Assuming you are lucky enough to do a full Vanaduke run every time, and you go all the way through, you are looking at about 110k cr. At the current rate of CE/cr exchange rate, this comes out to 1500 CE. Which means you get 1500 CE a week, if you are lucky and putting much effort, while with no alt TF2 accounts, you get half a refined metal. Go ahead and say that would mean that you get 3k CE for a single refined metal. But who the hell would actually believe that.

Like I mentioned, you must have the effort to put forth into SK, while with TF2, it comes on its own. No effort needed. Not to mention gear, weaponry, and anything else you add to yourself. And I believe effort is worth more, much more, than time. So you are no longer looking at a 3k:1 exchange. You are looking at a lot less. Depends on how much you value your time over your effort.

Either way, this is to show you all the calculations used to match the in game currencies and any other factor you might want to include in the calculations. But truth is, the true value of an in game item is how much it can be sold or bought for.

TF2 Refined Metal: ~$.70-$0.75 per
350 Crystal Energy: ~$1

Just because I am quitting Spiral Knights, does not mean I did these numbers lightly.

Sincerely,
Noobowns

@Xylka, I sell my refined metal for 65 cents each. So I will number crunch for such a reason.

Xylka-Mkii's picture
Xylka-Mkii
@Noobowns Thats exactly what

@Noobowns

Thats exactly what I said. Its a business decision, so it has to be exact if you want good results.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
i know, so i put exact.

i know, so i put exact.

Anyhow, in case I did not mention it, I want to tell Poetry thank you for putting the link to my Sales thread in your post. Makes it easier for me to move from here to the other thread.

Myllakka's picture
Myllakka
---

Yes, the item you're looking at costs a baseline amount. This baseline means nothing at all in the market because people will take the highest offer, and if people are willing to buy at 400 CE, then that's the price the market will follow. People routinely pay more for convenience, which is what's happening here. Pizza delivery exists for a reason.

It's interesting to see the number crunching, but end result? Pretty useless for actually selling and buying.

Volebamus's picture
Volebamus
NoobownsIn short, supply and
    Noobowns
    In short, supply and demand does not apply in this situation. You are trading via items that their values are determined by cash, not in game items. It would apply based on the crown vs CE factor. But Crowns are not involved here.

This is obviously where you misjudged something, specifically the supply and demand not applying. Evidently as can be seen by the market, it does.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
how can supply and demand

how can supply and demand apply when CE can easily be purchased? The only way for CE to enter the market is to be purchased. So you are overlooking a major factor by saying that Supply and Demand applies.

Myllakka's picture
Myllakka
---

Not everyone purchases CE. Not to mention, if supply and demand doesn't exist with regards to CE, then the market tab would be completely empty.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
I did not say it was

I did not say it was nonexistent. I said it was irrelevant.

And I never said everyone does purchase CE, but I did mention that in order for CE to enter the market is for someone somewhere to purchase it. Which means the true value of the CE is 350 for 1 dollar.

Volebamus's picture
Volebamus
You have to stop looking into

You have to stop looking into monetary $ amounts, and instead factor opportunity costs, specifically time and effort. That's the actual conversion rate for things that can be acquired by the majority of the non-paying playerbase.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
which is exactly what i did

which is exactly what i did in post #16. Thanks for reading it. Much appreciated that you take your time to read and then comment, rather than skip over important posts.

Volebamus's picture
Volebamus
And yet your comment #16 had

And yet your comment #16 had an incomplete assessment, thanks for looking into that:

    Noobowns
    So you are no longer looking at a 3k:1 exchange. You are looking at a lot less. Depends on how much you value your time over your effort.

You went into that obviously 3k:1 doesn't work and would be much lower, but then you skipped straight into the monetary conversion rate, while ignoring all other possible conversion rates in between that could occur for a variety of reasons.

Nechrome's picture
Nechrome
What the crud is TF2??????

What the crud is TF2??????

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
I mentioned every single

I mentioned every single factor that could be included into the conversion rate. Due to time and effort, there is no way to put a value on those, so I did not use those into a further alteration of the exchange.

Otherwise, you would get mixed exchanges and not an accurate one.

If you can put a value on time and effort, let me know. When you do, I will add those into my calculations, but until then, I will only simplify it as best as it could be simplified.

And TF2 is a videogame in case you did not know lordofnecromancers.

Volebamus's picture
Volebamus
Exactly, there are too many

Exactly, there are too many factors. What ends up ingesting and taking in those factors is the market itself that's composed of a mass of players, which seems to give us the present prices.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
the present prices are put by

the present prices are put by players like you and I actually trading for the sellers price. If people started asking 1k for refined, then people will start paying 1k for it.

But its not a matter of what it is being priced at, this is a thread I made to say what the refined is actually worth.

I am selling a bunch of my items from Spiral Knights. And I am after Crystal Energy. True.

And I do plan on trading the CE for Refined. And I do plan on selling this Refined for money.

However, I do not mind paying 300-350 CE per Refined. Though I would prefer 250 CE. Truth is though, the value is actually 250 CE.

Xylka-Mkii's picture
Xylka-Mkii
I'm gonna drop this in to see

I'm gonna drop this in to see if this will encourage more discussion. 1 Word:

Markup

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
that is one word i do not

that is one word i do not understand

Vtmoon's picture
Vtmoon
Using noobowns logic, I

Using noobowns logic, I demand that I pay the same gas prices that Saudi Arabia pays for gas, at my local pump! all the logistics be damned!

Bileth
Wtf is wrong with this guy?

man, why do u think CE prices rise? because the people who sells it get a profit
now, why do u think a refined worth 250 - 300 CE sells at 400? the answer is the same

N00Bowns

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
I have no reason to argue

I have no reason to argue this point any further because apparently you guys fail to see the original reason for it.

I was informing. And Bileth, you are one dumb idiot. You fail to read.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
BTW, lets just leave it at

BTW, lets just leave it at this, because this thread is honestly getting out of hand, and I do not want it turning into a war between people.

Volebamus's picture
Volebamus
I just realized something I

I just realized something I failed to ask, where did you get the conversion rate for Refined Metals from? Just perusing rates, if keys are worth $2.5, and you can get two refineds for a key, then that puts them near $1.25, ignoring other factors I'm not aware of. So what exactly makes refineds so cheap, and where can you find people selling them for $.65 each?

Edit:

I think I found more current rates now, and basically it looks like refineds are basically just dropping in value as time passes by. Assuming rates are correct in the first post, then the other possibility aside from time value being different is that the SK-main players have mostly not caught up with the more current dropped refined rates. That's still a S&D scenario though.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
I appreciate you editing your

I appreciate you editing your post. As I only refreshed after it was edited. Unfortunately, I am partly to blame for the huge drop of price from when it was 85 cents to what it is now at 65 cents.

I am a trusted seller on SOP forums and I am a regular seller on the forums there. The main thing I sell is Refined. It used to be that Keys were worth 2 dollars, not 2.5, and 2 refined would be a key. However, the price of keys did not drop as fast as refined did, so forcing the refined/key rate being about 2.33-2.66 refined per key.

When I rejoined the forums, and started selling, I had to make sure I had the best prices so people would buy from me. I undercut the market by 5 cents putting it at 80 cents a refined. People slowly followed. Rinse and repeat, we are at 65 cents now. However, I assume that after about January or Mid-February, the prices of Refined should be going back up.

Traevelliath's picture
Traevelliath
LOGIC!

Gamers don't always do what is logical. You are simply proving this another way.

Volebamus's picture
Volebamus
Huh interesting. If you were

Huh interesting. If you were capable of doing that on the SOP forums, you'd probably get the refined prices you are suggesting by doing this topic over there rather than here. As that's the side with much more supply of refineds, the TF2-mainers will probably adjust prices on their end first at a much quicker pace, and then slowly the prices here on SK-mainer's end will follow eventually.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
That is in fact a great idea

That is in fact a great idea Volebamus. I doubt people will loosen up to 250, but I am looking towards 300 at least.

Skidkid's picture
Skidkid
?

Why are we talking about TF2 on a SK forum ?. Doesnt TF2 have its own forum for this ?

As a non steam player, I dont care why, or for how much it's selling for.

Giannii's picture
Giannii
A dollar should be 400ce

A dollar should be 400ce minimum not 325 or 350ce, why use the highest price for ce to value it. Use the lowest. (Lowest is about 533ce/$ using 4-packs by the way) Since you are trading virtual currency for virtual currency I guess 400ce per is more fair than 533 though. While you'd pay a premium to get something closer to real money (ie. ce for games).

Tengu's picture
Tengu
TF2?

3 suggestions.

1) move to bazaar
2) move to gremlin chatter
3) lock the thread.

Please, admins, do one of these. I call this advertising for another game on your forums.

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
@ tengu, this is not

@ tengu, this is not advertising another game at all.

@giannii, I used the 10 dollar pack to be most accurate. if u use the big packs like the 20 dollar and 25 dollar, they wont be accurate because there are other things factored into the actual value. So I chose the 1 value that is raw CE.

@skidkid, if you dont care, then dont stop by this thread, and comment on it also. It is like stopping by a video on youtube and then commenting you hate it when no one actually suggested it to you. You just went there on your own.

Bileth
Lol

I Think: TF2 FTP Players want more Metal

Soo...

They Just Play SK And Buy Refined For A Price Higer Of The Real Dollar Value Of The Item

Because They Cant Pay

PD: Sorry For Mispelling, Not Native English Speaker

Noobowns's picture
Noobowns
I would not know about FTP

I would not know about FTP players. I only know of Premium.

I have 4 accounts, 3 of which are alts. So I know the value of Refined very well. Like I have mentioned before, I sell Refined at 65 cents each. Most of my money that has gone into TF2 and the 6 dollars that went into SK came from Refined metal sales.

It may not be much, but eventually it adds. Especially when switching over from being a 5 star SK player to simply TF2. I hit 4.4k CE profit by selling 7 items. And my prices were cheap. I was lucky to have such good items though, because I know they are items people want to have in game. So people would offer CE for them.

Nordlead's picture
Nordlead
skipping ahead... If you

skipping ahead...

If you truly believe that TF2 Refined stuff is overpriced in CE, then make the smart business decision and start selling them for CE (except you are quitting) as it is a great opportunity to get CE for cheap. If you provide this service, then eventually supply and demand (which you claim doesn't exist) will drive the price of the TF2 item down to what you claim is a "fair" CE price. Also, if people do buy more cheap TF2 Refined to convert it for CE it'll drive up the price of TF2 refined in $.

The reason there is a gap in CE vs $ is because not enough people are providing the service of converting real cash into TF2 refined to sell for CE. It has nothing to do with real world $ or time investment, but everything to do with demand for a service that not enough people are providing.

Here is a quick example of a real world supply vs demand that makes little sense but is similar to this case. I used to buy games that were exclusive to a single store (like EB Games, Walmart, or ToysRus) and sell them on Amazon.com. You could buy them either from a local store or from the online store for $40. I sold them for $70-90 around the holidays and typically shipped to well populated areas in states like NJ, CA, or FL. Obviously these people could have gone straight to EB games and paid $40 (+ tax and/or shipping) but instead decided that they wanted to buy from Amazon. If you calculated the value of the game it was $40, but due to demand for a service I could sell for significant markup. These people wanted the service of home delivery without having to create another online account. The TF2 for CE is the same thing. These people want the TF2 refined but want to pay in a convenient manner to them and are willing to pay for the service.

Black-Magic-Jesus's picture
Black-Magic-Jesus
THE MAIN THING: DEMAND If

THE MAIN THING: DEMAND
If people want to sell their metal in TF2 (400ref.) and people are looking to buy, it will sell at that price. But if people are looking to buy CE instead of Refined, The price of Refined will go down and the value of CE will go up, Making 250ce a plausible price. So right now people are wanting metal. Explaining the price its at

God-King's picture
God-King
@Tengu

lol anti-TF2

No seriously, it's quite amusing.