Simple.
Some guy sees the CE prices rise, tells someone about it, word about 'ce prices are rising' spreads....
Everyone freaks out and starts buying ce before prices rise any higher, unintentionally taking out all the cheaper offers and therefore increasing the CE price.
Would I be wrong in saying this is somewhat ironic?
The balance between p2p players and f2p players has changed, the is far more f2p players per every p2p player than before. It basically the same story with social security in the United States, less workes per retired person.
I think there is some truth to this but it's not the whole story. I believe that the situation you describe manifests as a 'multiplier effect' on changes in CE...
For example, patch comes out, FSC mission raises the price of CE via crowns by a 300-400.
People see this, then think "OMG 9k CE is coming!! Buy Buy Buy" and hoard CE.
Price of CE raises by 1k as a result.
the game is intentionally designed (by OOO) to have escalating CE prices. The system is structured for this, and when it seems to stall, or find an equilibrium they actually tweak the economy in such a way as to jump-start the inflation.
We all see it as "broken . . . wrong . . . a problem . . . a panic . . . a detriment . . ." or whatever incredibly negative and problematic adjectives we attach to it. And its a very dire situation in need of immediate attention.
In truth, its a system that seems to be working perfectly. We freak out, very few leave because of it, or play less, even tho we all go crazy and tip-toe right up to that line. Then, when it seems as tho the world truly will end, a CE promotion comes out, (especially when they do good ones) everyone buys-in, CE comes back down to around 6k ce (maybe even a touch lower if they stack promotions) everyone gets entitled to this price, thinking the bubble can never pop again.
then the promotion runs out. the ce market finds a low 6k-mid 6k sticking point, then they subtly give it a boost up, with something so subtle as a power surge weekend, or a game tweak, sometimes it only takes creating the specter of eminent inflation, and then the OP's opinion plays out. But if thats not enough to do it, then the developers will spark an inflationary measure.
We all cry its broken, and the raise (by nature) fall (By credit card purchase) cycle repeats. Its a profitable and livable scenario for OOO as long as we don't grow apathetic, or don't go past the breaking point. I think they also realize, that given the minimal content, that they will lose more players through natural attrition of boredom then from rage quitters. And that sometimes high CE will help save us from ourselves, in that it limits how quickly we can get bored, and in the meantime, because we can't play we have time to grow increasingly desirous of playing (or rare accessories).
So its not really even a broken cycle. Its a cycle that serves them well, that creates boon times for players (when CE is low, economy changes hands freely, people can glut themselves on play time) and then lean times (that create a world in which we start nervously waiting for a "good deal" so we can buy more ce. Then they throw us a "discount" or a "free gift" with a CE purchase, and its time to BUY NOW!!!!!). Aaaand everyone is happy. (except us, while they are building the anticipation for a CE price lifeline).
Its almost a planned obsolescence for a resource that will never be obsolete.
Which is also why all of our "OOO PLEASE HELP. THE GAME IS BROKEN. CE IS OUT OF CONTROL" threads never get graced by a GM, or Dev, or Eurydice.
Edit:
and this isn't a bad thing. It has created a game that is beloved by hundreds of thousands, played obsessively thousands of thousands, and overall a very fun, and i'll bet profitable, venture. They know that the vocal-minority will always be the ones to fill the forums first, and that the vocal minority are passionate, often times belligerent, and more likely to voice opinions when dissatisfied then when extremely happy. When we are extremely happy, we are too busy in game to comment on the forums.
In those cases, they vaguely try and curb our anger, or direct our venom, while secretly they are very happy that we care so much. I don't doubt they smile a little inside when some RAGES IN CAPSLOCK ABOUT HOW THIS IS THE LAST STRAW!!! Its just the manifestation of a player's love for the game expressed through utter rage and misplaced emotions of betrayal!!! (spoiler alert. truth be told, your favorite sports teams don't care about you personally, and neither does spiral knights.)
Or... because FSC now gives another 3000 or so crowns, the end-game players who farm Vana have a lot more money to spend on CE. Thus, they are buying more CE, more crowns enter the market (crown value goes down).
That's a trigger. There's always a trigger.
So you are right. But this can also be a standalone cause. Someone sees the prices rising for no apparent reason, buys some ce, warns friends that the ce prices are on a rise (even though only minutely)...
Yeah.
But enough on defending my point, because it's still valid, just as any 'trigger' and 'multiplier' effect in this discussion is.
So yeah.
its because savvy players see this:
All CE promotions have ended.
there is a mission that pays out "too much"
and that crystal energy prices ARE ON THE RISE.
so its not all self-fulfilling. Its in large part that if you touch the stove when its red-hot and get burned 100 times, you start to figure it out. If you CE explode after every see CE promo ends, then yeah, you know its going to happen. Fear-mongering causes it to happen quicker than it rationally should, but only expedites the inevitable, it doesn't in and of itself change the end cause, only the speed with which we get there.
Don't forget:
Crowns that otherwise would have been spent on high recipe prices through trade or AH. Now that a lot of recipes can be found via the HOH, there are available crowns for a new knight to spend towards other things, like higher CE prices. Though this gives more room for tolerance of the higher prices.
There was a situation like that back in 2008, with bullets (here in the U.S.). People were scared because of the Presidential election, so they bought up a bunch of bullets. Because of that, bullets were getting more scarce, so people got scared more, and started buying even more bullets. People are panicky.