Iron Lockboxes
Wed, 06/20/2012 - 18:32
Thought I'd share this story, since it's so odd.
I got my first Lockbox right when I started the game, wasn't really interested in it, so I traded it.
Some 200 in game hours later, not a single box since then.
Then, today, because of the promotion, I bought the Explorer's pack which comes with a Silver Key. 30 minutes or so after getting the key, I get Iron Lockbox. What the hell, I think, I'll open it since I got the free key.
30 minutes later, I get a second lockbox in a prize wheel.
Now, is it a coincidence that after getting a key, I got 2 Lockboxes in an hour, after not having gotten a single one in over 200 hours of play?
Wed, 06/20/2012 - 18:39
#2
inb4 Asukalan.
inb4 Asukalan.
Wed, 06/20/2012 - 20:57
#3
A common statistical misconception
As far as anyone knows, the drop rate is random. But when an event is random, then there's no reason for drops to be equally spaced. In fact, it's perfectly reasonable for someone to get two lockboxes in a row.
In other words, the drop rate is only a set rate on average. Each trial is completely independent of every other event.
Wed, 06/20/2012 - 21:18
#4
@Pauling
Or so we
@Pauling
Or so we thought........
inb4 conspiracy theories.
Wed, 06/20/2012 - 21:19
#5
Iron gives me Dusty Barrel
Iron gives me Dusty Barrel Belly.
Mirror gives me Extra Short Height Modifier.
I know which ones I'll be opening from now on.
Thu, 06/21/2012 - 18:47
#6
Got my 3rd lockbox in 2 days
Got my 3rd lockbox in 2 days today.
So, 3 lockboxes in 2 days after getting a key.
This is after 220 hours without getting one.
Thu, 06/21/2012 - 19:00
#7
Not true.
I got two lockboxes today as well, same run, depth 22 and depth 27 in Jade Gate. Never touched a Silver key.
Also got one last night on a shadow snarby run. (And if it interests you to know I paid all 1800 energy for the shadow key)
Nah I doubt thats how it works, drop rate is random.
Thu, 06/21/2012 - 19:29
#8
Make that 4 boxes in 2 days. :-/
Fri, 06/22/2012 - 02:07
#9
Processing Thoughts of You Always
...only mostly random.
I seem to remember someone did some research, and found out this:
- those who open lockboxes have a higher chance of receiving them
- those who sell off their lockboxes have a low chance of receiving them.
That doesn't mean it's impossible for you to get several lockboxes without opening one.
It's just that it's highly unlikely.
Fri, 06/22/2012 - 02:20
#10
ALIENS
i herd ther wus a alien in Roswell.
Fri, 06/22/2012 - 02:23
#11
@Milkman
not saying it was aliens
but it was aliens
Fri, 06/22/2012 - 03:24
#12
It is random, but opening a
It is random, but opening a Lockbox does seem to greatly increase the chance of you getting more. It also is a lot like flipping a coin and recording the result. The odds can be static, but if you write down what happens and something doesn't happen for a while (Lockboxes in SK, heads coming up for flipping a coin) then the human mind starts going "this hasn't happened for a while, its GOING TO happen!". The coin can come up 10 times as tails in a row, does that mean the next one is going to be heads? No, the odds are still 50/50, but your head will try to say the heads has a higher chance just because it hasn't come up yet.
~Gwen
Fri, 06/22/2012 - 12:26
#13
I bought 2 silver keys within
I bought 2 silver keys within the past 2 days. I never found iron lockboxes before. I found 2 iron lockboxes within 2 missions back to back.
First one opened contained cool glasses which look nice on my costume.
Second one opened contained prismatic glow eyes.
I don't care what marketting scheme this is, but I freaking love it?
Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:12
#14
ermm... welll....
Last week I got 30+ lockboxes from roulette in three days of gameplay... >.>
Fri, 06/22/2012 - 16:15
#15
30+ ?
Time stamped pics or it
30+ ?
Time stamped pics or it didn't happen.
Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:04
#16
I uh....
Found another one
I uh....
Found another one today.
I have a feeling this is somewhat a marketing scheme more based on how many silver keys we buy?
Considering we aren't even told the chances for things inside of them....
It isn't a coincidence. It's a marketing tactic.