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The Auction House & Minimum Materials Values

14 replies [Last post]
Sat, 04/30/2011 - 17:04
Leviathan
Legacy Username

So, been trying to sort out: When the auction house hits, how low could materials prices go?

As a first, fast, and possibly weird look at this:

-A haze bomb sells to a vendor for 300 Crowns. This will likely be outbid regularly on the market, but let's say it's not. We want to find a minimum, remember.

-It costs 200 crowns, 10 energy, and 5 materials (3 light shards, 2 gel drops) to make.

-So, 300 (paid to seller) - 200 (cost for alchemy) = 100, for materials and energy.

-This means that if the average cost of those materials drops below 20 crowns per unit, there's a slim but permanently-open, zero-risk margin in crowns to be made by anyone who has the recipe and mist energy that they don't intend to use - players only logging in for a minute that day, players interested in hunting up a UV, people with free + paid accounts using their 'alt' as a factory floor, and so on.

-So, for light shards and gel drops at least, and based only on this one item, 20 *looks* like it ought to be a "soft" minimum line, or at least a resistant threshold to drop under, in the long-term.

...

Anyway, just thought I'd share that.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:12
#1
robot5656
Legacy Username
10ce = 400 crowns /thread

10ce = 400 crowns /thread

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 18:57
#2
Negimasonic's picture
Negimasonic
Prices for the lower star

Prices for the lower star materials are just going to go really low. Plus anything you can find running jelly king a lot. I doubt gel drops will be worth much. MAYBE a little for brute cores and such but it's doubtful if everyone holding back on theirs contributes and undercuts.

Also Robot, you aren't thinking. He wrote about alts and people not logging in often. So although 10ce = 400 under current values, it doesn't represent any loss for someone using pure mist energy (and that's all they wish to use).

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:04
#3
Algol-Sixty's picture
Algol-Sixty
Leviathan wrote: {...} to be

Leviathan wrote:
{...} to be made by anyone who has the recipe and mist energy that they don't intend to use - players only logging in for a minute that day, players interested in hunting up a UV, people with free + paid accounts using their 'alt' as a factory floor, and so on.
(bold added)

robot5656 replied:
10ce = 400 crowns /thread
No, 10mist energy = free. If you don't use it, you lose it.

Where Leviathan's scenario breaks down is that it that these haze bombs won't sell for 300 crowns, rather they will sell for lower as many people can do this and drive the price down. There are far too many people with access to a large number of computers with unique IPs that could harvest a lot of mist energy every day.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:16
#4
Negimasonic's picture
Negimasonic
It would be foolish to sell

It would be foolish to sell below 300. That's scrap value to put it in Dead Frontier Marketplace terms. Anyone even slightly paying attention would buy all haze bombs below 300 then scrap them (in this game, that'd be selling to an NPC vender) for a profit. I will not say people won't go below 300, but it won't make sense to do so and it shouldn't last for very long with eagle eyed players.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:21
#5
Algol-Sixty's picture
Algol-Sixty
Oh, the vendors will buy it

Oh, the vendors will buy it for 300cr? if so, then people will just use it to convert cheap materials to crowns.

Honestly, if an AH comes out, OOO should consider requiring all crafting to be done with only CE and not ME. The price of items on the market will be cheap enough that even with that change, new players willhave easy access to low star items without buying CE (with $ or via the market).

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 19:46
#6
Negimasonic's picture
Negimasonic
well as in the original post,

well as in the original post, its a very very thin chance of using it this way.

To break even you'd have to have the materials already (or buy them for no more than 20 cr each), and ONLY use mist energy. That's just to break even.

And nooo to the all CE crafting >.> What about the new players who wanna try out stuff with their mist energy, it's entirely possible to craft your two star set with only mist energy if you're patient (heck even 3 star). CE only crafting would kill that (though it might mean more profits...). Besides, crafting for yourself can be "fun" with the materials you collected. CE only would kill that, and I imagine the few people that use unusual armor like circuit breaker shield won't be able to buy many of those off of the market. Additionally, everything in this game is meant to take advantage of at least some of the mist energy to lighten the burden on CE. You can buy a trinket slot for 150 energy but it could just cost you 50ce energy if someone has a full mist tank.

Sat, 04/30/2011 - 20:25
#7
Leviathan
Legacy Username
"To break even you'd have to

"To break even you'd have to have the materials already (or buy them for no more than 20 cr each), and ONLY use mist energy. That's just to break even."

Right.

Or to put it another way:

If you ONLY use mist, AND can get mats for 20 cr or less apiece, junking failures at the vendor will pay for infinite mats. You could make ten haze bombs on an alt-account every day, forever, no cost, five minutes logged in. Hey, eventually, you`ll hit a UV: Charge Reduction: Very High.

Like that.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 00:51
#8
Tisiphone's picture
Tisiphone
Quantum Theory

Eventually yes, you can get a Charge Reduction Very High UV. The Uncertainty principle allows anything to happen.

Doesn't mean it would happen anytime soon. I've been chunking out Haze bombs for around a week now.

I've gotten around 20 UVs, 2 Low Charge Reduction, the rest assorted low damages, oh, and one High slime.

Honestly, it isn't that productive. the amount you spend (2k crowns per 100 ME) doesn't really pay off. In my case:
I've made 70 Haze Bombs: 14k Crowns + Materials (light shards are pricey in mass. 200 lightshards at 50 each is 10k) + ME
20 UVs Kept to Sell. Sold the other 50. 17.5k Crowns
Sold Three UVs so far, (2 low CTR and 1 High Slime) for 750/1k/1k. 2.75k total.

Total Expenditures
250 Crown for the Recipe
24,000 Spent in sheer crowns and Materials
20,250 Earned

Net Loss:
4000 crowns

Unless you get really lucky, you're better off just doing something else with that ME. Really silly, but I got a High CTR UV on my Flourish, and a High Attack Speed Increase on my Freezing Vaporizer MKII...

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:26
#9
Negimasonic's picture
Negimasonic
.-. the problem with that is

.-.

the problem with that is you're working with current prices, not these theoretical 20 cr prices (which could become reality, this may or may not happen).

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 01:56
#10
Leviathan
Legacy Username
Yah. I mean, the point of the

Yah.

I mean, the point of the exercise was to find out "At what point would weird things start happening?"

In the case of those two Mats, we now have a bottom threshold, beyond which there's reason to believe demand would be very firm. In the case of others, we'd have to check what vendors give on various levels of gear, and run the math; I suspect it would come out to somewhat different "bottom-of-the-barrel-goes-hereabouts" prices on different materials.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 09:00
#11
sabriath
Legacy Username
Just like any other market

It's nice to know the minimum price of sales for profit, but there is hardly a chance to be able to teach others this fundamental idea (only a select few will understand). I mean, 'Gold Orb's in WoW sell to vendor for 1g, and yet people were continuing to put them on the AH for 99s or less, just so they undercut the competition, not paying any attention to 'scrap value' (not to mention that the seller loses out on 5%). I've seen many items go below because people are so impatient they "want their money now" -- if only they knew it would be more profitable if they didn't go the JGWentworth way.

I wish that SK had addon ability, I'd make an auctioneer-like mod to help...but unfortunately 3R won't do that.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 09:20
#12
Feynt
Legacy Username
Suggest it in the appropriate

Suggest it in the appropriate forum, they might. There is a Lua <-> Java binding out there (search "luajava"), but at the very least a JNI could be written for Lua support. At the most basic level Java has XML parsers in the default language, so they could work up some kind of interface/scripting thing with XML.

Back on topic, I don't think that any hard minimums should be enforced beyond what the vendors would buy for (like selling shards is worthless, and a magnus sells for 3500 minimum). Where the soft caps of the market will land is anyone's guess though. Given that people WILL buy the materials required to make haze bombs, I'm betting the prices will go significantly above the minimum prices to go "infinite" crafting those.

But Leviathan I think your math is a little off, or the market is out of whack though. A Magnus is 10 red shards, 3 bronze bolts, 2 gremlin gizmos, and 1 rocket sprocket. With a crafting price of 1000 and a vendor sell price of 3500, that means the components and energy cost (100 energy) makes up the remaining 2500? But rocket sprockets were more than 2k last I deigned to peek into trade chat.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 09:46
#13
Leviathan
Legacy Username
"A Magnus is 10 red shards, 3

"A Magnus is 10 red shards, 3 bronze bolts, 2 gremlin gizmos, and 1 rocket sprocket. With a crafting price of 1000 and a vendor sell price of 3500, that means the components and energy cost (100 energy) makes up the remaining 2500? But rocket sprockets were more than 2k last I deigned to peek into trade chat."

I'm looking for the minimum "sane" market values, remember, not present ones - or even sensible ones. The price below which It's time to go "Oh, this is ridiculous".

So, on a Magnus, at 100 energy to craft, that can be all mist for someone that isn't going clockworking that day, but did think to stop in.

Leaving 2500 for materials. If we say that the shards are near-ish to the Haze Mats in minimum value, that's 200 total. Let's say purely for the sake of argument that Bronze Bolts bottom out somewhere near 80 apiece, Gizmos at 200, and Sprockets at 850. I pulled those numbers completely out of the air; getting good ones would be a lot harder.

I'm not saying "The prices on those mats should be that low". I am saying, though, that if the collective bundle of mats as a whole drops below that total of 2500, then it encourages alt-farming, which in turn will drive the prices back up towards levels something like that. I expect stability will be a good cut upwards from those minimums.

Or, in yet other words, when we first get an auction house, if you ever see Shards selling for 5 apiece because people are dumping their hoards like crazy, you might want to pick up a stack at the price; there's reason to believe they'll come back well above that.

EDIT: Fixed my imaginary numbers a bit; they're still not great, but whatever.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 10:26
#14
Feynt
Legacy Username
Yeah the 100 energy is a

Yeah the 100 energy is a given, I don't often craft unless I can absorb a large portion of it with ME. I think I get what you were driving at now too.

But yeah if I ever did see shards selling for 10 or less I'd buy them up faster than cupcakes at a "big and tall" convention.

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