God, what in the world, why can't I get a great UV or accessory on the first few tries and multiple times like I hear many peopl
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 06:05
e do. Just recently I heard someone get a hunter's aura and another get 3 UV maxes on their first roll(which weren't too bad, one of them being normal, actually that goes a lot for armor that doesn't have normal protection that being his dragon scale armor). I couldn't wait to buy the Sentenza ASI high from someone cause he was being absent for awhile cause of work and all, and got in the mood of 'gambling' so I rolled the Antigua hoping to get an ASI high myself early on and save me some money. In total, I rolled 25kce so far as far as punch goes, I pretty much meet the same amount of UVs as my other knights but still got Damage Bonuses mostly for Highs, VHs, 15 on pulsar, and 10 on antigua and the best I ever got was ASI Lows, but I seem to get a lot of damage bonus VHs.
What gives? I should've stuck with armor instead or the wolver cap specifically since I have no choice with the combos I had. I just can't seem to be getting any breaks for this knight. Only one other knight is lucky. I can just see the code: Unlikeable knights function, if this knight is not likeable, then probability 1/256 return yada yada. I got so pissed I stabbed my desk and scrapped my skin off with blood. Bandaid time. So how come I'm not getting anywhere near the experience of others rolling several weapons(both known and unknown people) and getting asi vh/ctr vh where it's desired most on the weapon, yet not even close when I spend like 25kce? Well 15kce for both(since I might make some money back), and still not get ASI VH. I've heard people get it at 10kce or under, one guy with his Sentenza like 6 months ago. I knew a knight before retiring show me things from his FSC grinds like 1 mil cr, which netted a lot of CE back then, and his 3 UVs on a weapon like Faust where I think he got ASI High/VH plus CTR, etc. Said he wish he had something more. I heard him on the mic too with his relative or friend laughing and seeing that I was still in my Azure Guardian armor set as my only 5* main set(the only 4* was my mighty defender which I could never afford to make into an Aegis after I found out about better armor despite the randomness of recipes from Basil. after a month of grinding for it when he randomly joined me. Fun stuff. Now I know better when they were laughing, I over heard his mic with someone saying "He's still...". That was back in June when I didn't know better in making a lot of money quick.
I've also tried it on the Pulsar earlier, and then gave up, took a break from grinding and just crafted for 2 weeks or so, cause I wanted to focus on other things, and then came back. The best I ever got from them were also ASI med, and I was so impatient that I rolled over a Construct VH, the very few VH I got, and I think the Pulsars left at the AH were the higher priced ones so I didn't buy another. Same thing with the Antigua cept it was Slime VH and that didn't sell well with the price I checked. 500 ce more was just not worth it. I accidently didn't factor this in with the Undead High selling at 120k. This game is just trouble. x )
Seriously though, this takes more work than all rpgs I've played, and this is the only MMO that I've tried out, I've passed on Maple Story, and unfortunately Ragnarok.
One source:
http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/55571
There are several knights that have this story, but I know a knight that has came back after quitting and already had a store and just used under 10kce to get all these maxes and highs, vh, med weapons. He told me that was the way to invest, which was an obvious thing to do to get a lot of returns, but I just want to roll on a weapon/armor to keep, but even then I still don't get any good UVs. I know a knight that has came back after quitting and already had a store and just used under 10kce to get all these maxes and highs, vh, med weapons. But I just wanted to cut to the weapon and not have to sell things, if there is even a greater chance with armor, I still don't know, 10kce doesn't seem to be enough. Maybe it's just most of my knights save for one that got me a few things, including my main.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 08:53
#2
Here are my Punch results. I
Here are my Punch results. I guess some will come close. It is ordered from the 1st to last UV I rolled. I don't know if it matters whether it should be the same weapon type or armor type, but I think it's more likely to how many times you crafted, as that could explain how some people got a UV on a different item for the first few crafts because their previous crafts were counted. So I would assume that the random chance to any item applies to Punch as well.
Final Flourish:
1. CTR Low
2. Beast Low
3. Construct Low
4. ASI Med
Snarble Barb:
5. Fiend Low
6. Slime Low
7. Construct Low
8. Slime Low
9. Beast Low
Sealed Sword:
10. Construct Low
11. Fiend Med
12. CTR Med
Fang of Vog:
13. Beast Low
14. Gremlin Low
15. Slime High
Pulsar:
16. Beast Low
17. Beast Med
18. Slime Low
19. Construct Low
20. CTR Low
21. Slime Low
22. Fiend Low
23. Beast Low
24. ASI Low
25. ASI Med
Antigua:
26. Gremlin Low
27. CTR Low
28. Construct Low
29. Undead Low
Back to Pulsar:
27: Gremlin Low
28. Construct Low
29. CTR Low
30. Construct Low
31. Construct Very High
32. ASI Low
33. Undead Med
34. ASI Low
35. Gremlin Low
36. ASI Low
37. Slime Med
38. Undead Med
39. Undead Low
40. Fiend Low
41. ASI Low
Antigua:
42. Fiend Med
43. Fiend Low
44. Undead Med
45. Construct Low
46. ASI Low
47. Gremlin Low
48. Fiend Low
49. Gremlin Very High
50. Construct Med
Gunslinger Sash:
51. Freeze Low
52. Shadow Med
53. Normal Low
Back to Antigua:
54. Gremlin Low
55. ASI Med
56. Beast Low
57. Undead Med
58. Beast Low
59. Construct Low
60. Beast Low
61. CTR Low
62. Beast Low
63. Undead Low
64. Beast Med
65. ASI Med
66. Undead High
67. ASI Low
68. Beast Low
69. Construct High
70. CTR Low
71. Beast Med
72. Slime Very High
73. Beast Low
74. ASI Low
75. Gremlin Low
76. Beast Med
77. Construct Low
78. Slime Med
79. Gremlin Low
80. Undead Low
81. Slime Med
82. CTR Low
83. CTR Med
84. Construct Low
I've done this since maybe Dec or January. I have heard that it was harder to get UVs from a few people, but I think that was for crafting, and I think that is somewhat mistaken. I don't think it's harder to get great UVs from Punch, but it is controversial I guess, don't know if they really made a few changes. What do you guys think? Do I have the average person's luck? This is not even listing all my other knights and their 60+ UVs including my main from crafting.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 09:11
#3
Randomness is random.
Who knew?
Also, did you roll all those on the same Antigua and Pulsar? If so, that was pretty silly.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 10:06
#4
Nah, I sold the ones that
Nah, I sold the ones that would sell for some money. Med's not too bad though, just thought I'd try for at least High. I didn't get as many Very Highs as Round Shinigami though especially early on, so if he or I would've rolled armor instead, Round would've probably gotten a lot of Maxes. Well I screwed up here. It looks like it narrows it down to a couple of armor lines as your only options if you want to set up a shop that'll sell for good amounts of CE and at quicker rates. Actually scratch that, I remember crafting x50 wolver coats until I finally got a UV. I remember asking anyone in haven if they ever crafted x50 items before they got a UV and one guy said he did as well. But a Shadow High did appear soon afterwards. And then after that nothing really good. So I got real lucky with that Shadow High and it wasn't because it took awhile to finally get a UV. Every other armor I did wasn't good except for elemental hood which I wanted a normal max on but got shock max, and the other UVs don't get much compared to others. I remember thinking I could craft more with 3* too instead of waiting on mist to regenerate on 3 other knights. Boy was that expensive, it's better to try it just once if you want to get the UV real slowly and keep the rest of the crowns. But I did duskers, gunslingers, and elemetnal hoods for awhile as well, and almost all of them were well not good.
I wonder if I'll ever get a lot of maxes or very highs appearing at the "end" of my rolls(which I'm not banking on), or if it does, never becomes a streak of highs/very highs or highs/maximums like one knight assumed to me.
Oh yeah, finally opened a lockbox that I had I think or bought it like a week or 2 ago, and guess what came out? A regal headband, ahahaha. My first try luck wasn't good there either.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 09:47
#5
"omg guyz im unluckey plz look at me!!!!!! :((((("
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 10:15
#6
Oh, not so bad then.
I figure you just about broke even. No?
Anyway: your chances are exactly the same* every time you roll, whatever else you do. Don't waste too much headspace on superstition.
*Okay, not quite, given how RNGs work. But the non-randomness is nothing we as players can account for or make use of.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 10:23
#7
Guess what i got on my VERY
Guess what i got on my VERY FIRST TIME getting a UV? I GOT A FREAKIN SHADOW DEF HIGH ON MAH SKOLVA COAT! Lol i got so lucky! And to this day, i still only have 1 UV, but it is a one i will treasure!
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 11:33
#8
Oh silly people thinking their UVs are worth poop.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 12:26
#9
You are that guy who buys
You are that guy who buys lottery tickets and then wonders why he never wins despite all the people they show on TV having won before.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 13:14
#10
You have around a 10% chance of getting high or better. You have a 12.5% chance of getting an ASI UV.
The two events are assumed to be independent, so the probability of rolling ASI High+ is:
(0.1)(0.125) = 0.0125 = 1.25%
That's a low probability.
You say you have used 25k CE on rolls. Assuming you only punched single UVs, that's approximately 100 rolls. Even after 100 rolls there's still a good chance you wouldn't get the High+ UV you want:
(1-0.0125)^100 = 0.2842
So there's a 28.4% chance you would not receive ASI High+ after 100 rolls. 1 out of 4 times you will be disappointed.
EDIT: I'll just mention that I've had crafting streaks where I didn't get a UV in 50+ tries. It happens.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 17:20
#11
I,
Thunderbog. Chooses. Karma.
Welcome to my curse, I laughter with my evil feelings.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 17:48
#12
You should never ragecraft or
You should never ragecraft or punch roll massively for Asi VH UV's. You're not likely to get any unless you're extremely lucky. Problem is most of the UV you get on weapons are junk and don't sell except for ASI and CTR, so if you're lucky enough to get a VH, odds are you'll get "a dmg bonus vs" which will sell for peanuts and won't recover the money spent. Unlike armors when most of the Maxes you get are usefull and sell good. People who gets VH ASI UV's either got it on random crafting with alts, or they didn't really care and rolled once in a while for the lulz. That's how I got a VH ASI flourish, I just rolled randomly one day and didn't expect anything, got it on the first roll. Pretty sure I wouldn't get it if I was actually trying to get it.
My best bet, roll your gun only once or twice a day. More is self-destruction.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 20:05
#13
pulsar!
a bit off topic, if you roll slime vh on pulsar ill b rly happy to buy it, cuz thats the only pulsar i havent collected! :P
btw my polaris:
asi low+gremlin low
fiend low
asi med
asi low
beast low
slime low
ctr med
gremlin vh
asi med
ctr med
gremlin low
construct low
beast vh
ctr low
.....
i didnt note how it went, eventually ended up with undead VH, i was like [insert F here] that fine.
2nd pulsar:
ctr VH (FU punch) sold for 350k CR
3rd pulsar
CTR VH (again? kept it)
4th pulsar:
beast low
undead low
construct VH (nice kept it)
5th pulsar i got From AH, fiend VH 50k CR.
6th pulsar:
undead med
beast low
asi H (sold for 8k CE)
7th pulsar:
10 rolls ended with undead low.
Still looking for slime VH.
other weaps such as hammer, punch just hates giving me asi med+ on it. 1mil+ rolls always beast gremlin undead and ctrs... im sick of that.
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 22:01
#14
Well, I took this from the
Well, I took this from the Spiral Knights Wiki.. but this was meant for crafting.
Low: 65.74% ± 8.95%
Medium: 21.30% ± 7.72%
High: 7.41% ± 4.94%
Very High: 5.56% ± 4.32%
I very much doubt punch is any different percent wise.. but either way. Lets say you want a Very High UV.. and you want ASI or CTR. There is a 5% or lower chance of Very High and at the same time it could be Very High Beast, Gremlin, Slime, Construct, Fiend, Undead, instead of ASI or CTR. I am afraid the chances of a High/Very High of a specific UV are extremely low.
Mon, 08/13/2012 - 00:36
#15
Wodanct, that's crafting rates.
They form up to 100% and don't include Ultra and Max UVs.
Mon, 08/13/2012 - 11:07
#16
I even said that they were
I even said that they were crafting rates in my post, and also said I very much doubt punch is any different. 65/21/7/5 seems pretty close to me.
Mon, 08/13/2012 - 13:02
#17
Oh sorry my bad.
That goes up to 100 and excludes ultras and maxes, again, lol.
Maybe 64/20/6/5/2/1?
Mon, 08/13/2012 - 13:13
#18
Bit of facts, bit of flaunt
A good rule is that Punch is a troll, don't spend too much on him for a UV
Crafting the 2* version for UVs is much more reliable, and cheap. It takes longer, but costs much less when done on mist.
You also (rarely) have a chance at multi-UVs when crafting. (CTR Med, ASI Low Shadow.Alch, x2 CTR low Blast Bombs, Beast V.High Rigadoon)
Weird how this turned into a double post.